October 02, 2010 06:00 PM UTC

Dan's Predictions

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• by: Dan Willis

(The word of the day is “haruspicy” – promoted by Colorado Pols)

With the election only a month away, and most mail ballots going out in the next couple of weeks, I guess it is time to make my predictions.

I didn’t do as good with the primary results as I usually do, so now I have to try to vindicate myself.

Below the fold are my guesses. I have been far too busy to pay much attention to the legislative races so I won’t even try there except to say I doubt the Dems will loose control of either house. Perhaps a seat or two in each, though.

Keep in mind, this is what I think will happen, not necessaily what I want to happen.

US Senate – Michael Bennet This is getting closer than I would have thought. The message coming from the candidates is mostly about each other and not about themselves which is never a good thing. I think in the end it will be Bennet because Buck is being successfully painted as too extreme (and correctly so).

CD1 – Diana DeGette Duh!

CD2 – Jared Polis Duh, but with less emphasis

CD3 – John Salazar Very popular in the district, and Tipton just has not made the case to toss him.

CD4 – Betsy Markey Some of her votes were not popular with her party, but they carried huge weight in the district. Gardner’s campaign does not seem to be able to get their poop in a group.

CD5 – Doug Lamborn He’s a do-nothing, but he’s their do-nothing.

CD6 – Mike Coffman Duh! (with the same emphasis as CD1)

CD7 – Ed Perlmutter This is getting closer than I would have expected, but Ed is very popular in his district and has a good campaign organization. He should do just fine.

Governor – Hickenlooper The most interesting part of this story is how badly the GOP candidate will get beat by a 3rd-party guy. Even the libs may benefit from this one!

Treasurer – Cary Kennedy She has done a good job, and campaigns well. She should be okay despite her moneybags opponent.

Secretary of State – Bernie Buescher Been the sleeper race that it usually is. Gessler never got it together. Buescher should win easily.

Attorney General – John  Suthers This is the tougher one to call. If Garnett is going to take this away from Suthers, he has to really step up his game and fast. I think incumbency will carry Suthers.

Amedments 60, 61 & Prop.101 – Fail These all go together and they will fail together. The message about their extreme nature is the only message being heard about them.

Amendment 62 (Personhood) – Fail Was blown out of the water two years ago, will die again but by probably a smaller margin.

Amendment 63 (oppose health care reform) – Pass This is a tough one. I have found it very difficult to guage how the population really thinks about the federal health insurance reform legislation. I think most people are unsure as they don’t really know what all of the ramificatons will be. So far very little has been said about this one so I am feeling like the opposition is not getting as organized as it should be. If it passes, it will be by a small margin and will likely be tossed out by the courts anyway.

Prop. 102 (PR Bonds) – Pass Will likely pass as the ballot title is a bit vague about what it actually does and therefore sounds reasonable (which it is not). Again, have not seen any organized opposition formed.

Ref’s P, Q, and R – pass These are all common sense referenda that have gotten little attention, probably due to their mundaneness. The only controversy may be with P which allows gambling issues to be decided by those locally affected and not the whole state. But they should all pass easily enough. The other two deal with disaster planning and a tax emption for very low-income property.