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July 07, 2006 08:00 AM UTC

Looking Ahead to CD-7 Stretch Run

  • 50 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We?ve got our helmets on just in case, but please don?t shoot the messenger?

With one month to go until the primary to decide which Democrat will emerge in CD-7, which is widely considered the most competitive seat in the country, we?re starting to get a good look at the likely scenarios.

Rahm Emanuel, chair of the DCCC, has apparently told colleagues and representatives from several PACs that Peggy Lamm is the clear favorite to win the primary unless Ed Perlmutter can turn his campaign around quickly ? as in, a couple of days, not a couple of weeks. Several internal polls continue to show Lamm ahead.

But it?s not over yet. First, the good news for Perlmutter: His campaign says that they raised about $300,000 in Q2, leaving them with $515,000 cash on hand. Perlmutter has already paid for about $500,000 in TV time, and with an expected blitz of support from a 527 committee, he has the juice to get his message out to the voters.

The problem for Perlmutter could be that he waited too long. We?re hearing a lot of chatter, both locally and nationally, wondering what?s taking the Perlmutter campaign so long to get moving.

Perlmutter?s camp has sent out a few pedestrian mail pieces, while Lamm?s campaign has dropped a few strong attack pieces that have effectively painted Perlmutter as being in bed with the oil & gas lobby ? and team Perlmutter hasn?t done much to refute it. In fact, Perlmutter has done little to define a message at all. Lamm is painting herself as the tough Democrat who is a better choice than the oil & gas connected Perlmutter, while Herb Rubenstein is taking over the left of the debate with his Iraq withdrawal message (and going on network and cable TV today to get that message across). Meanwhile, the only consistent message Perlmutter has gotten out is to tell people that he has lived in the district for 25 years ? something the average voter doesn?t care about (political insiders may care, but average voters do not).

Lamm has had the momentum in the race for the last month, and normally the campaign that has the momentum heading into the final weeks ends up winning the race; it takes a long time to swing momentum back in your favor, and Perlmutter hasn?t been trying to do that yet.

Lamm is still the candidate with the momentum, she?s raising more money than she ever has (which is another sign that donors are recognizing the changing winds), and EMILYs List is reportedly set to do a $375,000 independent expenditure on her behalf.

Rubenstein is now the candidate with the buzz because of his TV commercial. He doesn?t look to have the resources to extend his message, but how many easy votes is he picking up now?

Meanwhile, Perlmutter has the campaign that is telling people, ?Just wait until?? Until what? The election is in four weeks.

The reason you can?t wait this long to move is because mail-in ballots are already on their way. More than half of voters in CD-7 may have already cast their ballots by the time August 8 rolls around. It takes a good week of TV advertising to really start seeing a message come across and attracting voters, and even if you are swaying voters, many of them probably already voted. Perlmutter may very well be able to take over the airwaves soon, but it may not matter. It may be too late.

This time last year, Perlmutter was being called the overwhelming favorite by Emanuel. It was his race to lose, and despite Lamm?s momentum and lead in the polls, it?s probably still his race to lose because he has the resources to turn it around. But that?s only if something significant happens, and soon. Sometimes the candidates who should win don?t win, and that may be what happens in CD-7.

Comments

50 thoughts on “Looking Ahead to CD-7 Stretch Run

  1. Two major points to address.  Obviously, in every facet of this campaign, Peggy has all the momentum.  All of it.

    Second, yes, what is Ed waiting for.  He’s waiting for a message that is different then “Hey, I’m suppose to win this race, I’m a lawyer/lobbyist who once voted against gays, but now that I’m losing so I love gays.  But I’m suppose to win this!”

  2. It is becoming obvious that national people do not think Ed can win and the people of CD-7 do not want Ed Perlmutter to be their next Congressman.

  3. Ed Perlmutter, above all, represents TRUTH. The HARD FACTS indicate not only is he “demonstrably ahead” in all polls, but his position on the issues is objectively better than the other candidates.

    Lamm and Rubenstein are heavily tied to big business and oil interests, and they have also supported dismantling public schools to give vouchers to their rich buddies. Also, Ed is the ONLY candidate with a perfect record on GLBT issues. Ed isn’t an “insider” like Herb and Peggy.

    Perlmutter and Truth. Like peanut butter and jelly.

  4. “Ed is the ONLY candidate with a perfect record on GLBT issues.”

    Really?

    In 1997, Perlmutter sided with the Marilyn Musgrave faction of the Republican Party and voted against legislation to give gays, lesbians, and unmarried heterosexual couples legal rights in situations of hospital visitation, inheritance, property rights.

    “Politically this is a difficult vote, morally this is a difficult vote,” Perlmutter said before voting against the bill. [Denver Post, 2/6/97]

    Perfect record if you are with Focus on the Family maybe…

  5. I think “truth team member” was being ironic or sarcastic, but the vote that Coloradem mentions was truly shameful. I don’t live in CD7 but if he ever runs for an office for which I can vote, I’ll vote against him.

  6. Rumor is Herb today is making his second TV buy in 3 days! Maybe the Denver Post IS right, and he has a lot more money than his 2 other opponents to put into this race. The voters will figure out that he answers questions directly, whereas Peggy does not, and he will prevail in the end!

  7. I think Truth is being sarcastic CoDem. 

    I can’t see any big difference between Ed and Peggy so I’m not sure what all the hand wringing is about.  They have some baggage (Owens, gays, vouchers) and they both fill their cars with GAS every day, supporting evil OIL companies and contributing to increased CO2 levels and GLOBAL WARMING.  But seriously, they are still Libs who support Dem positions and will likely vote with Dems 95% of the time.  After watching the Holtzman/Beauprez debacle, my advise to Dems:  Vote for who you want but save your venom for the R. 

    Why am I giving advise to Dems?  Scratch that, eat your own in the primary so the winner can be mortally wounded come Fall.  Yeah, that’s the ticket!

  8. What is going on with the whole fuss that Lamm is going to win? I think that’s ridiculous. I recently met Herb Rubenstein and believe that he is not only the right candidate for me, but the right candidate for Colorado. If you want a man who represents change, then why not vote for the best? Vote Rubenstein.

  9. Everyone should check out the new Herb Rubenstein ad at YouTube, or you can just see it on the homepage of his website. http://www.herbforcongress.com … I personally find his ad and website rather impressive. He’s definitely the right candidate for me if we want to pull out of the war.

  10. I liked Herb Rubenstein’s ad also, the message was sweet. I’m quite surprised at the upsurge in popularity that he has brought to Colorado within the last 6 months.

    If you still don’t know who he is, take a look at his website or something. This guy really knows what he’s talkin about.

  11. The voters know who will fight for them and not the special interests.  It looks like the party brass also knows who the clear candidate to take down O’Donnell is as well.  How’s Every-Way-Ed gonna spin this one?

  12. And when we compared Ed and Peggy’s records on GLBT issues in the ’90’s, let’s not forget that Peggy, with virtually no chance of winning, attempted to rescue a Democratic Party which failed even to field a candidate against Drew Clark, one of the most virulent homophobic and HIV-phobic members of the General Assembly. 
      Peggy ran a write-in campaign against Clark, and came within something like four votes of winning.  Some of her supporters spelled her last name “Lamb.” 
      In fact, had not our Republican Secretary of State decided that spelling counted for more than the intend of the voter, Peggy would have beat Clark.

  13. The Rubenstein campaigners are almost as annoying as the Beauprez shills. My advice: If you want to come across as an everyday voter and not as an un- or underpaid intern writing TV copy or campaign spin, try writing in a natural style. No one really says “he’s the candidate for Colorado and for me.” (Yes, I know that’s not a direct quote. It’s called “paraphrasing.”)

  14. All the blithe dismissals in the world from Ed and Peggy won’t change the fact that Herb Rubenstein is gaining in this race. NOBODY — including the Dead Guvs — would have given him credit for a few months ago.

    Can he take it away from the REAL insiders? Herb has been the butt of Party jokes for a year — to call him an “insider” now is itself a joke. And an indication that other candidates are threatened by him.

    Go Herb!

  15. Funny how they knock Herb.
    Someone even said that the commercial was not on TV.
    Herb has a serious media budget and every CD7 voter will see his commercial.
    Herb is taking hard stands on the issues and people are responding positvely to his message
    Lamm’s positon on the war is shameful. Go to PeggyLammforCongress.com and see for yourself.
    Ed has nothing but cliches for a health care plan. Herb has a real plan that will work. A common sense plan that working families will benefit from
    Herb is surging because he is talking sense about the issues

  16. Stephen Still is doing a fundraiser concert for Perlmutter.

    That will add substantially to the $1 Million Perlmutter has already raised and be a good start to Q3.

    Ed is doing what he needs to do and will be the nominee in November.

  17. I see Roger D is on the team as well. Ed is focused on FACTS and ACTUAL EVENTS. He would NEVER make up poll results and is DEMONSTRABLY AHEAD.

    If truth were water, Ed would have drowned a long time ago. He’s that truthful.

  18. Hello this is Eddie Van Halen and I ‘ve decided that Herb is the most excellent candidate in this race. Rock on.

    Ps. I never lived in Jeffco, I’ve always been more of an Adams County man.

  19. Ed “the former state Senator” Perlmutter
    Peggy “I don’t know were I live” Lamm
    Herb “the total nutcase” Rubenstein

    What a wonderful choice.

  20. Has anyone seen the new info on the Perlmutter website?
    Is Ed’s pledge to stop calling the other guy or gal a ….incompetent and to campaign on real issues a recognition of his negativity in this campaign and that the only issues he’s been running on has been Peggy did this, Peggy did that??? Does Ed regret sending out all the mail on what new bad thing he thinks Peggy did this month? WOW is he admitting his mistake???? OR is this just more political spin from Ed’s mouth???? hum…..

    FROM WEBSITE: “So, instead of simply calling the other guy (or gal) a crook or an incompetent, I pledge to campaign with a specific agenda on real issues, and with a sense of optimism and willingness to admit when I don’t know something.”

  21. Will John Ferrugia promise not to make Peggy Lamm look ridiculous again? I wish someone would post the tape of that interview. It is the funniest thing going. I wonder where her campaign staff was when she walked into that ambush and could not remember where she lived.

  22. Will Perlmutter make a pledge not to make himself look ridiculous again?  Between his whining, mail peices, and erroneous statements about phantom polls, I’d say impossible.  He is “the funniest thing going”.  I wonder where has his staff been this entire campaign?

  23. It’s analysis like the one above that causes me to wonder about the objectivity and identity behind ColoradoPols.  There’s little doubt that Peggy Lamm has enjoyed a higher name identification because of her last name and certainly not because of her undistinguished one term in the state legislature a decade ago.  But it beggars objectivity to suggest that Ed Perlmutter is somehow in trouble when he has outraised Lamm 2-1, where Lamm’s campaign is embarassed to release her cash on hand, where major endorsements in the district have been locked up by Perlmutter, including labor, the teacher’s union, the trial lawyers, the League of Conservation Voters and virtually every Democratic state legislator and mayor in the district — and where Lamm’s only source of fuel is Emily’s List and maybe Rutt Bridges.  Lamm has no comparable campaign organization; she has burned through three fundraising firms and two campaign “directors” and is reportedly so desperate for a field organization that she is paying college kids $9 an hour to walk doors for her.  As vaunted as ColoradoPols is (we all remember the “up arrows” for poor Marc Holtzman), I will stick with today’s analysis by veteran political observer, Floyd Ciruli, who argues persuasively in the Rocky Mountain News that Perlmutter is the frontrunner.  Now, IF Emily’s List really comes through with a $300,000-plus independent expenditure I would say the race might turn in Peggy’ direction, but sources I know and believe are calling that possibility a Jim Merlino wet dream.  As for the rumor about Rahm and the DCCC, this is a very stale rumor from two months ago when Rahm agreed to keep an eye on Lamm in the unlikely event that she made progress in raising money and creating a solid campaign organization.  There’s no doubt among real DC “insiders” that Rahm has no love for Emily’s List and is doing what he can, along with other unnamed members of the Colorado Delegation to help Ed Perlmutter.  That was what the LCV endorsement was all about, folks — a real analysis of the dynamics in this race.  This race is still Ed Perlmutter’s to lose.  As for “message” — I think Perlmutter has a message that is smart as a Democrat you can count on (read: you can’t county on Ms. Lamm not to switch parties) and change in November.  Herb is trying to be the anti-war candidate when all three are opposed to the war (only Peggy has no specifics), but I am at a loss to understand what Lamm’s “message” is — perhaps ColoradoPols or Terry Snyder can fill us in?

  24. Ed is down by 20 points.
    That is why Emmanuel is telling people that Lamm is the likely winner.
    Ed’s own polls confirm that he is down by double digits.
    How is this known?
    Well one of Ed’s big three Welchert, Salazar or Radovich-Piper has a big mouth or maybe all three do. You’d think all that money they are being paid would buy a little discretion. I guess not

  25. What a shame it will be if more voters do not take notice of the great canidate, Herb Rubenstein.  His Masters Degree in Public Policy, his work in a Washington Think Bank, and goverment work experience clearlly mark him as the best canidate for our congressional seat.

  26. Is the D.C. think tank (and I use that term loosely) where Herbstein came up with his half-baked ideas about cameras in every classroom, mandatory ignition interlock devices, and video cameras on every traffic light?  He could have gotten those ideas simply reading some of George Orwell’s works.

  27. @ Ciruli Has It Right….The only two messages I have seen Every Way Ed put out is the rantings by his shills about the John Feruggia report and the fact that Every Way has lived in the district for 25 years….Is there another message?  If so, please share…..

  28. Which candidate has made an unequivocal pledge to get our troops out of Iraq? That would be Herb Rubenstein. Which other CD-7 candidate has done so? Nobody.

    Perlmutter is stuck in “glittering generality” mode, paragraphs of “positions” that say nothing. Peggy is more genuine than Ed. I’ve met Herb Rubenstein and find him to be personally disarming as well as keenly intelligent — but Peggy is better polished and also a very friendly and engaging person. Either one makes Ed Perlmutter look like an aloof dickhead.

    Bottom line as a voter? Perlmutter has insulted my intelligence throughout this campaign. He emails are shallow and often poorly written. The endless string of attacks on Peggy — which he has now disavowed in an equally weak-minded fashion — will go down as having harmed him far more than her. Perlmutter has tried to get by all this time with his Washington insiders and sycophant staffers who insist that victory is “inevitable,” and smearing anyone who opposes him.

    Well guess what — I know who the newly surging Rubenstein campaign is taking votes from. And it isn’t Peggy Lamm. There’s even a way Rubenstein could come out on top in this thing, which would be very interesting indeed. At the very least, he’s going to put an end to Perlmutter by being the better three-syllable last name.

  29. Perlmutter is the one who has the very best chance of winning the general.  A vote for HR is like a 2000 vote for Nader and the Lamm name has a lot of negatives attached, courtesy of the Gov.  HR’s plan to end the war is a fantasy.  Do Dems want to make a statement or take back the house?  Better decide quick.

  30. If, by some miracle, Peggy Lamm manages to win in November, I have little doubt that she will have her ass handed to her by Rick O’Donnell who will make the fact that she is a carpetbagger with no roots or ties in the district (beyond her ambition to run for Congress)a major focus of his campaign.  The Republicans are already signaling their intention to make the election about local issues to keep the Democrats from running a national campaign. So for all the Peggy “shills” who think they have seen the last of the Ferrugia interview, think again folks!  Then there is the tough little problem of how Peggy will be able to campaign successfully against Rick O’Donnell on what might be Rick’s greatest strength, and that is his record on higher education.  Peggy can’t say boo about it since she supported Owens and worked his agenda as a member of the Commission on Higher Education.  Finally, the grass roots activist Democrats who make up the core of Democratic campaigns in Jefferson County and Adams are not going to bust their buns for Peggy.  No one seriously believes that Peggy will keep her vacant apartment in the 7th District when she loses the primary.  This is another case of Emily’s List doing their best to screw up another potential Democratic victory.  As for Herb, he is a nuisance and it speaks volumes that he has 20% of the vote on this blog.  Only on another planet could he get more.

  31. Don’t think that carpetbagging always matters to constituents. If it did Hilary Clinton and Liddy Dole would still be looking for work. Same with RFK in the 60’s. How did they do it? Name recognition. That doesn’t mean that GoodGrief is wrong, but I doubt that this is the issue that could keep her out of Congress.

  32. @ Good Grief…..Herb is up to 20% now?  WOW, yesterday, he was trailing Every Way w/ 14% while Peggy was cruising along at 71%.

  33. Let’s keep this a clean campaign and not misrepresent positions.  Please read Herb’s “New Politics”.  For the record, Herb IS NOT TIED HEAVILY to big business and oil.  He is NOT TIED AT ALL to big business and oil. As Democrats, we should all run clean campaigns – that should distinguish us from the many Repuclicans who do not.  let’s focus on issues – voting fraud for example.  Let’s get a paper trail for every vote.

  34. One Queer Dude you are right  about November –ooops, I meant August.  I do think Aristotle makes a good point about carpetbaggers. but I am tempted to say that Peggy Lamm is no Bobby Kennedy or Hillary Clinton or even a Dottie Lamm.  I also would make the counterpoint that this election is one the Republicans want to turn on local issues, and it will be harder for Peggy to handle that strategy than it will for Perlmutter because if Ricky O pulls the “hometown boy” routine, it will not work against Perlmutter, but it could against Lamm.  The other thing worth noting that distinguishes revered carpetbaggers like RFK and HRC is that unlike these Democratic victors, Peggy has never really moved into the 7th District.  Anyone who seriously thinks she intends to move there is smoking something funny.

  35. I am still waiting for someone to tell me what Peggy Lamm’s message is — I get that Ed is the hometown favorite running on his roots and experience and change in DC, I also get that Herb is trying to be the ultimate Green and an anti-war protest candidate, but what is the magic message in Peggy lamm’s campaign?  “I am a woman”  –so what else is new?  And regarding mail, I think it’s rich for Lamm to send out a piece asking the rhetorical question, “Aren’t you tired of Democrats who won’t stand up for anything”  –and then offering a silly paragraph of platitudes.  So Peggy will stand up for the bloody obvious (like “putting bad guys away” –what the hell is courageous or new about that?  Moreover, if I were advising Lamm, I wouldn’t be making fun of Democrats who don’t stand up for anything, particularly when the last time she stood up in an election year it was to help elect Billy Owens.

  36. I love ColoradoPols.  Insiders trying to drive the Lamm-Perlmutter-Rubenstein primary.  Gotta love all you guys.  But it’s the outsiders — the “Had enough?” and “It’s time for a change” working class Dems — that will give Herb, an unknown peanut farmer from Green Mountain in Lakewood, enough votes to go on to victory on November 7.

  37. Me2: Herb doesn’t even live in Green Mntn, so before attempting to bash him and what he does, do your research.

    And I hope that the “It’s time for a change” working class does come through and give Herb Rubenstein enough votes because that’s what we need. Way to go people!

  38. Folks, you can go ahead and start packing your things. Ed has all but officially won this primary.

    NO ONE has stepped forward and discredited his unreleased internal polls showing his clear lead.

    NO ONE can question his status as having the rare combination of big business support and extensive political experience, while remaining an OUTSIDER pushing for CHANGE.

    NO ONE can question his ability to support traditional families with votes banning gay marriage AND his lip service supporting gay rights.

    NO ONE can question his support of taking money from public schools for vouchers AND his support of increasing the quality of our public schools.

    NO ONE can question a smoothly running campaign that avoids taking stands on issues and instead points to 5-month old 30-second interviews that never did have any currency with the public in the first place.

    NO ONE but Ed. Unless you have some real questions, step aside. Ed’s coming through.

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