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February 04, 2020 01:16 PM UTC

There Will Be Some Stuff from Iowa Today

  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Partial results finally in, with 62% of precincts reporting via smoke signal and Pony Express:


As The Washington Post reports:

The Iowa Democratic Party plans to release results from the caucuses late Tuesday afternoon, officials said.

In a call with campaign aides, state party leaders said they would aim to release “50 percent of all results” starting at 5 p.m. Tuesday, according to audio of the call shared with The Washington Post…

…Iowa Democratic Party chair Troy Price said that they would release at least 50 percent of the results, but demurred when pressed for when the additional results would come.

“We’re continuing to work through that process. As soon as we can,” Price said. “Today, tomorrow, the next day, a week, a month. We’re continuing to work through our process.”

So, uh, yeah.


13 thoughts on “There Will Be Some Stuff from Iowa Today

  1. Almost no one understands how the Iowa caucus works.
    Even fewer understand the app.

    So what?
    No one can have 'won' enough delegates to be the nominee.

    Iowa is counting. Same as always.

    But thank God Colorado doesn't have that app. 
    As few understand IA caucus- good luck understanding the CO caucus or explaining the app.

    1. Having been to an Iowa caucus and having read the rules for this year, I’d agree that few understand it — even those in the room.  CNN and other media sites have tried to explain — even had jazzy graphics with human figures sliding around.  And they chose to use weasel words rather than try to explain the varying levels of “viability” in caucus meetings of various sizes. Nor did they try to explain why some decisions wind up being determined by a coin flip.

      The reality is Iowa’s 41 delegates (about 1% of the DNC total delegate [not super-delegate] count) won’t be finalized until their State  Convention:  Saturday 13 June 2020.  What we will be getting is “state delegate equivalents” or possibly “national convention delegate equivalents.”

      Without knowing WHERE the fractionated results are coming from, it is impossible to tell much about what the final outcome will be. I agree with what I saw at a site called Democratic Convention Watch: 1. Shadow, the app provider, is also providing the app to Nevada, which is 18 days away on Sat 22 Feb. Perhaps they will consider Iowa their beta test?
      2. Biden once again underperformed in Iowa. Not as badly as 2008 (by initial placement or percentage) — but it looks clear he will either be 4th or 5th.

      1. So what happens to a county/state delegate whose candidate is no longer in the race come Jun 13?

        I mean if a candidate should get one or two – but they are broke and unpopular. What if they not in the race come June 13?

  2. What if I were a homophobic Iowan who has been living under a rock for so long that I was completely incensed to be the last one to discover Mayor Pete is gay, and now I want my vote for him back.  I wonder if there's an app for that…

    1. WAPO says final alignment count favors Sanders, state delegate equivalents favors Buttigieg.  Warren will get some delegates.  Biden, at 15.6%, is slightly above the number needed by DNC rules, Klobuchar is at 12.6%, so is in danger of not getting delegates. Everyone else is far, far back.

      Two other things stood out to me: 

       * Sanders got nearly half of the 18-30 year old attendees. 

       * if 62% of the precincts is also 62% of the voters, attendance will be almost identical to 2016's turnout of about ~170,000.  No big "surge" in voters, even though 37% of the entrance poll were first time attendees. That number would be about 27% of "Active Democratic Registrations."

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