This race pits Republicans Scott Tipton and Bob McConnell in a spirited contest to determine who will take on incumbent Rep. John Salazar in November. CD-3 is a largely rural district, encompassing most of southern and eastern Colorado, as well as the cities of Pueblo, Durango, and Grand Junction.
As with previous member polls we’ve run just ahead of elections, we are not looking for your personal preference: we want to know who you realistically believe will win.
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Salazar had the benefit of swing U votes and a number of R (Rino)votes in the past but he has been all but invisible in CD-3. McConnel more than Tipton might be the wake up call he needs to start campaigning if he wants to retain his seat.
He has the luxury, not being primaried and all.
He’ll be here. Late, I predict.
In 2008, he was here on Election Day for GOTV. I talked to him down at Elections.
They’ve been yammering since last summer that Salazar won’t come to Grand Junction when he declined their invitation to a tar-and-feathering over health care.
He’s been around quite a lot, and the vets just love him. What he has is a lousy campaign press operation, and congressional office press, too, so word doesn’t get out.
McConnell is a loon and Tipton is too lazy to win. Salazar has the money, and the votes in the valley and Pueblo.
He will have to campaign more than in the past, but he showed when he first won the seat that he knows how.
While I honestly think that Bob has no business running for dogcatcher, he has activated the right wing base more than any other candidate in recent history. This has an always paranoid Salazar even more scared (see his recent horrid comments and actions on natural resource issues).
Add in that Scott Tipton has managed to run a completely ineffectual campaign and I’m guessing that McConnell wins by ~3% and then manages to lose the general by 5-10% due to his inability to raise cash and overall lack of campaign sophistication.
The problem that John has right now is that he is continually pissing off the Democrat base and is really straining ties with House and party leadership. That may play well in the general, but he can expect his fundraising dollars for CO major donors to be cut by 50% or more for the rest of the year, which will make him further reliant on PAC’s.