Forget for a minute how the Colorado D’s got here. 2008 election, transition, Bennet appointment, nine months of rumor and Romanoff chasing other jobs and the LT Gov. thing followed by an announcement of a challenge….followed by another announcement that the challenge would continue and not be sidetracked by the gov thing.
Forget all that and think about this…
It’s less than a week before the end of the primary and Andrew Romanoff and Michael Bennet are in a very close race for the D nomination. If someone had predicted this in Aug or even Nov 2008 no one would have believed it.
Negativity is the great equalizer – but only because we let it be. I choose to ignore it as much as possible when I try to decide how to cast my own vote. I respect that campaigns must win in order to do anything and that sometimes hardball negative campaigns are required. I hope if he needs it, Bennet has it in him because he’s the best chance we have to keep the seat D.
The D nominee will either have to face Buck or Norton. Either way, it will be a well funded R campaign, with organized and motivated R voters and county organizations, running an anti-D, anti-Obama, anti-anything, campaign in Colorado.
Whichever D we nominate, in the general all the D’s are going to have to get it together. If we can’t – then we lose.
And Bennet makes the strongest D candidate in the general.
Bennet is the only candidate in the race who has created jobs. The medium and low information voters care about this and this cycle so will the highest information voters, even the single issue voters for whom jobs is not that single issue.
If he wins, he’ll have beat a popular, experienced D with a large network of party activists and friends.
Bennet is new. DT posted recently what i’ve heard elsewhere, that AR has a strong message for the general: He’s not an incumbent D. Bennet’s is even stronger – he’s not a D who has ever held elected office before. And if Romanoff is the nominee, that’s not how it will go. It will be pitched more as he was the heir apparent, but he didn’t get picked. Why? No matter he voted this way and that way and etc. Do you really think Ref C is not a big part of why Norton is trailing right now?
Bennet can do well where Obama did well. Though I’d predict a lower overall turnout and less R crossover., Bennet can carry some big biz R’s and U’s, more likely to happen for him than for AR.
Bennet showed he would stand up to the teachers’ union at DPS. Though D’s haven’t all cheered that, it’s not a negative in the general. In fact, it’s probably a positive.
Bennet has the necessary fundraising chops. Udall had no primary, the 08 turnout and coattails and he still spent $15million to win by a much smaller margin than Obama. Where and how is AR going to get that kind of big money?
Someone else apparently supporting AR recently posted that voters are emotional and irrational. That they are all “pissed off at this do nothing Congress and ineffective President.” Whether that characterization of Congress and the President is correct or not, I agree that perception is out there.
Bennet has never argued the point – he agrees the Senate is broken: Been there, seen it, started working on it.
Bennet can make this argument better than AR because Bennet is the new guy, never in an elected position before.
Finally, again, even if Bennet is the more electable D in the general, neither D can win if in the general all the D’s cannot get it together. If we can’t – then we lose.
Until this strange campaign, AR has been good. Sometimes even very good, and if he wins the nomination. I’ll support him because he’s good and because he is much closer to the kind of Senator I would want than Buck or Norton.
Bennet is also good and he is also the stronger general candidate and has my support in the primary.
But the Bennet campaign has been so ineffective, I don’t buy it anymore. Yes he can raise money, but then spending it to no effect negates that advantage. Yes he has a decent back-story, but if he won’t fight to win, it’s not of much help.
Based on what we have seen for the last 3 weeks, I think Romanoff is the stronger candidate in the general – because he’s shown that he will fight for the seat, and do so effectively.
ANd it doesn’t matter to you that he made up a bunch of shit? Shit whch won’t work in the genera;.
His fake no-PAC support is not going to persuade any R or U’s who might otherwise vote Buck.
Niether would his far left reinvention (DLC? What DLC?) .
Ref C hurts.
Years of D leadership and elected positions – hurt.
ANyhoow- I hate the campaign he’s run to date. MikeD can call it agressive- it’s negative, destrstructing and it’s going to be really hard to unify the party after that. And I think you’d agree that if AR is the nomnee and can’t carry 90% + of the D votes cast, he loses.
Romanoff’s attacks were all based on either votes or Bennet’s history of work.
How’s this for making up stuff?
you don’t say? really?
is it true?
So Bennet’s staff is so desperately behind, they are getting their staff to float patently false rumors made up by their donors – specifically a Big Oil contributor.
defend that, if it is defensible.
Think about it for a second — why aren’t they with a party? In many cases, it’s because they get tired of both and think neither is better and they both are corrupt.
Romanoff clearly has no problem bucking his own party — the primary shows that alone. Add on a message about not being bought by the special interests? That’s what unaffiliated voters want — someone who actually will work for Colorado.
None of the polls I’ve seen show that. but polls are sort of stoopid anyway, esp when it comes to U’s.
But maybe ….maybe I am clueless and U’s are gonna be loving themselves some Romanoff. I don’t see it.
But bullshit and bullshitters really turn me off.
to change your assessment of the Bennet campaign if he wins?
If he wins by 0.2% – no. I think the odds are good that whatever margin Bennet gets in the primary, it will be smaller in the general (unless the Republican candidate does the standard self-destruct).
Post a diary like this, and they just flock to it.
As evidenced by the other posts from this afternoon.