Voting numbers so far

I’ve tracked this in the past and it starts with a lot and trails of over a week, then has a giant jump at the end. People like you and me who follow politics year round probably already have our votes in. People who don’t really follow politics (like the rest of my family) haven’t even started thinking of it yet. As close as the three main races are (I think McInnis/Maes is very close because of the McInnis plagiarism incident), every one of the remaining votes is going to matter.

graphs follow…

So first we have votes received by the Boulder County Clerk. Keep in mind they show a running total, not the number in each day.

And here is the stats of people visiting my www.coloradoballot.net site. These are 99% people coming to the site via Google searches so it’s a decent measure of people looking for information on the candidates.

31 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. 20th Maine says:

    a lower than expected turnout.  But it would be helpful to know how many ballots were actually mailed by the county clerk first.

    • Ralphie says:

      is that the SoS has changed the way counties are to report turnout percentage.

      In the past, it was only ballots returned/affiliated active voters.

      Now it’s ballots returned/ALL active voters.

      Ballots were only sent to voters who had affiliated by the mailing date.

      I’ll have Mesa County numbers on my blog tonight.  So far, turnout is 17.5 percent calculated the new way, 24 percent calculated the old way.  More than 3,000 ballots have been returned undeliverable.

    • Dan Willis says:

      Of those, 12672 were returned as undeliverable.

      32980 votes have been cast in Denver so far. 333 of these were rejected. I don;t know why they were rejected. the most likely reason is the voter forgot to sign the envelope. A letter goes to these folks giving them the opportunity to come in and fix the problem.

      So turn out thus far is 15.8%. That’s actually not bad considering there is still a week and half left to vote.

      For more detailed Denver info see: Denver Mail Ballot Tally

  2. davebarnes says:

    @David

    This is really useful and I look forward to see the complete (as of AUG12 (the last day for Norton voters to vote)) results.

  3. I recently broke the 10,000 person eye-to-eye, face-to-face and toe-to-toe, my grassroots method, and what I consider good for any statistical analysis or polling versus robo-calling 1,000+ a few people (who hate the call anyway)…heres what I am gathering.

    100% of the Unaffiliated Voters who represent 1.2 Million voters in Colorado, a Majority in 2008 I believe, will not vote in the primary, although, technically they can.

    NO ONE, I repeat, NO ONE said they will.

    The rest of the story, is mine, but, if 100% of those I talked too, granted 39% claimed there were Republicans, 40% Unaffiliated and

    21% Democrat whoops I did talked to 2 Green Party, 4 Libertarians and 2 Socialist oh that One Anarchist I think won’t vote…

    Anyway, regardless of party affiliation or not, prepare for a wild Nov 2010 across the Nation, not to mention Colorado.

    Unaffiliated

    charleymiller2010

     

  4. The realist says:

    Not every county has a mail-in-only election for the Primary this year – maybe two-thirds? – not sure of the number.  

  5. Dan Willis says:

    As of July 12th (cut-off to be registered for primary) there were 1,685,982 active voters whose affiliations were Dem. GOP. or Lib.

    There would have been more ballots mailed out than this though because some jurisdictions may have ballot questions so U’s, Greens, Unity, and Amer. Constitution people would have gotten those as well. I am not aware of any, though.

    Also Inactive voters who are inactive only because they did not vote in 2008 also get a ballot mailed to them.

    I am not aware of a readily available soure that tells us how many ballots were mailed out statewide, or how many ballots have been returned statewide.

    Looking at recent elections, 2004 is very similar to this election in that there are contested primaries for the US Senate on both the Dem and Rep ballots. (Salazar v. Miles and Shaffer v. Coors). The primary turnout in that year was 23.51% (which was based on active voters).

    It is quite possible we could still top that if the number of ballots coming in picks ups (as expected) over the next week and a half.  

    • davebarnes says:

      @Dan

      Boulder sent out 111K ballots.

      111 x 23.5% = 26K votes expected. Yes?

      18K returned as of Friday.

      Does this mean that over 70% of the votes are in for Boulder County?

      Denver has similar numbers.

      • DavidThi808 says:

        It breaks down to about 1/3 immediately, 1/3 the last couple of days, and 1/3 in-between those times. So my guess is we have about half in.

        Also, Boulder has a higher than usual number of undeliverables because of all the students.

        • Dan Willis says:

          If not a little heavier in the final 3 days

        • ohwilleke says:

          a day is irrelevant to half of the people who will ultimately cast ballots in the race.

          Also, if turnout is about half in, then voters turnout is probably going to be on the high side this cycle in Denver and Boulder, with something north of 30% of active voters casting voters in the primary.

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