We’ve talked before about the negative effects that could affect the entire Republican ticket given their meltdown in the Governor’s race. Today MSNBC takes a look at the carnage and offers a sobering historical lesson for Republicans:
There’s at least one previous case of GOP intra-party turmoil in one race spilling over into down-ballot races.
“The clearest recent example of a gubernatorial downdraft is Ohio 2006,” said Claremont McKenna College political scientist John Pitney. “The incumbent GOP governor (Bob Taft) had been ensnared in scandal and his party’s candidate to replace him (Ken Blackwell) was unpopular. Together with bad national trends, trouble at the top of the ticket helped bring down incumbent senator Mike DeWine and cost the GOP a couple of House seats.”
Now, obviously those national trends that benefited Democrats in 2006 are not there in 2010. But a race like CD-4 could come down to the wire, and the Republican troubles at the top of the ticket could mean the difference for Rep. Betsy Markey.
UPDATE: To wit, Politico’s Kasie Hunt, who we’re pretty sure had never once written about–or even heard of–the American Constitution Party before Tom Tancredo made it famous:
Former Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo’s rogue bid for governor, already imperiling the GOP’s shot at the state’s top office, could also dim Republican prospects for knocking off first-term Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey in the 4th Congressional District.
That’s because Tancredo’s running on the ticket of the conservative American Constitution Party- a minor third-party ballot line that happens to include a candidate, Doug Aden, running in Markey’s district. A statewide campaign that draws attention to Aden’s party might give him the kind of lift that would make him a spoiler for Republican state Rep. Cory Gardner’s campaign…
This is turning into a pretty big deal for this formerly-insignificant minor party–Tancredo’s high profile and strong support on the hard right are certain to give the ACP the broadest exposure in its history. And given that “Tea Party” and related groups are already nonplussed by GOP nominee Gardner after his run-in with Steve King a few weeks ago, the danger of Aden peeling off votes from Gardner is bigger than first impressions might suggest.
Wasn’t he up against Steele for party chair?
November is going to be an epic ass kicking.
Depends on who the kicker and kickee are.
Wadhams has shot himself in the foot so many times this campaign, he can’t kick squat.
Complacency among ‘pubs is just what the doctor ordered.
Can take this incredible opportunity you republicans have…
And turn it into a republican train wreck. He’s that good.
Was going to win anyway.
Anecdotally, I’ve never seen R’s like me so energized.
when your absolute slam dunk predictions in 2008 fell apart? Don’t make the same mistake this time thinking your prognostications have gotten any better.
Maybe a year ago when the Tea Party was out in force yelling at town hall meetings and generally everyone was pissed about the Republican bankers taking the money and giving taxpayers the finger your predictions would have been reasonable. This year the Tea Party has been branded as lunatics and Health Care and Banking Reform have passed and Obama has already passed through the disillusionment period and Dems. are still standing. You can boast all you want but the an alignment in the heavens for Republicans has passed and left behind McInnis and Tancredo as reminders of how screwed up Republican politicians really are but hey be overconfident and cocky. Reading your meltdown in 2008 was sad and really funny at the same time. I’m looking forward to your reactions in November but I’m betting they won’t be what you are wishing for.
Congress is not doing squat to reduce the unemployment level. And the true unemployed/underemployed is 17%. When they go to mark that ballot, a lot of them will be figuring someone new can’t be worse than who they have, and they might be better.
And the thing is, that is actually a very rational way to vote for that 17% and their family.
I supported Obama, and was pretty sure the R’s were going to get their ass kicked.
I’m not denying a meltdown, but I’m wondering if you have me confused with someone else.
You’re right. The Dems look like they’re going to gain lots of seats in November. Things are great! The country has never been in better hands.
You have been wrong so often I may be off on the year but no doubt you were using naughty words and didn’t come back to the clubhouse for a couple of months.
Let’s just say that we probably wouldn’t have electricity to run our computers if Palin/Old Fart had been in the drivers seat and taken this country back to the stone age. Nobody should be under any illusions who took down this country. An ill-conceived invasion and unregulated greed. If you want to blame Obama for those events like Michael Steele have at it but the rest of the country knows that it was Republican arrogance that brought us to our current state and Republicans have been doing nothing to help rectify the situation. If Republicans deserve to be elected for doing everything in their power to stop the economic recovery then we as a country deserve to go down for our own stupidity in giving them a second chance to finish destroying what they started.
Since I joined Pols, the R’s have been shellacked in pretty much every election prior to Scott Brown.
I don’t think you have the wrong year, I think you have the wrong guy.
But – I will certainly seek you out now in November and we can compare predictions.
I actually took some time off myself right after that so I don’t know if you had as well, but you weren’t using the most polite language then.
I don’t remember if you were confidently predicting HCR’s defeat, but maybe GG’s thinking of this.
Not my best moment, and I admitted that.
Truth be told, LB did kick my ass on our healthcare bet. He got that one right.
I might have missed it, so did I? I want to hang out at Bastien’s and shoot the breeze with you, LB and any other politicos….
–where specifically do you see Dems doing well?
Governor’s race is now pretty much a given so where else?
County Commissioner seats?
CO State House?
CO State Senate?
US House CD’s?
US Senate Race?
Are we holding the majorities in the State House and the State Senate? Are we holding the US House? US Senate? Seriously, you seem to feel confident that the other side is losing steam so let’s hear some specifics.
And I’ve been on this blog a long ass time and I don’t remember LB having a meltdown. Expressing disappointment? Yes. Meltdown? No. He’s a stand up guy when you admit you fuck up so I’m confident he’ll accept your apology for getting him confused with someone else.
Now, let’s get back to your superior insight that no other poll in the country has.
Maybe I can provide an example of Republicans losing steam.
Wait wasn’t there something about plagiarism and defections by prominent Republicans to third parties?
Would that constitute losing steam or do you need something bigger like a gigantic corporation abusing regulations and cutting corners for profits which resulted in a disaster of epic proportions and would highlight the need for enforceable regulations which is counter to the very essence of Republican economic policy?
Maybe you need something bigger like a Republican slam dunk in Nevada getting rid of Harry Reid and coming up with Sharon Angle and the descent of the Tea Party movement into absolute absurdity?
We haven’t seen any polling on Colorado races so why is polling the only thing that qualifies as an observation of our current condition?
and give specifics was a lesson in superiority. Was my question too difficult for you?
Here I’ll just copy and paste and this time, try actually reading it before you reply:
when it was LB who got this started with his usual boasting about how Republicans are going to give Dems a real beat down this year. All I did was tell him to simmer down and enjoy this election without getting all strung out on the results. It was Health Care Reform that got his goat which he mentions above.
I don’t know if anyone has measured Hispanic intent but in terms of Republicans losing a whole demographic I would bet that every Latino who can make it to the polls is motivated this year to turn out and it will be no surprise that they won’t be voting for Tommy T. Everybody is focused on the Tea Party movement but I don’t see a lot of articles on the impact that the Arizona immigration law and support for it by candidates like McInnis and Tancredo will have on turning out the Hispanic vote in Colorado.
In terms of past performance, I entered the DailyKos 2008 Pick em Contest and was about 120th out of 5,000 contestants. I missed guessing the Electoral College total by one vote. I didn’t realize that Nebraska split their votes and Obama picked up the Omaha CD district.
You probably know more about polls and predictions than I do MOTD but LB and I have been around for a while and like to tease each other. We’ll see in November if the big blue wave comes rolling in. I’m saying it won’t be that big and Markey is going to be going back to Washington.
already, withdrawal of national support in gov race undercuts GOTV and other items that would help the R ticket across the board. Additionally, it really casts a pall over GOP efforts to gain control over at least one house of the lege. The 2011 reapportionment may be a disaster for the GOP.
not helped by lackluster or misstepping candidates for Senate and some of the other races.
The Ds took a hit when a funny thing happened on the way to Rep. Curry’s re-election. Other than that, the pratfalls have been mostly Republican.
A year later the Gulf oil spill has focused attention to the complete failure of Reaganomics and unregulated capitalism and instead of learning and evolving their ideology, all Republicans can do is claim the stimulus didn’t work. Democrats are the only ones who are talking about proper regulations and the deafening absence of new ideas by Republicans isn’t a going to be a momentum shifter in their favor. Republicans can’t govern and have proven that they can’t learn from their past mistakes. The dynamics are totally different from 2009. The Republican wave is diminishing like oil on the beaches.
unhappy,scared people want someone they believe really can and will change things for the better for them and Dems are not doing a good job of making a strong case that they are the ones to trust either.
For one thing Dems have to get over their fear of being accused of class warfare and therefore being pinkos. It’s crystal clear we are in a class war and the Republican Stinkin Rich Corporate Elite team is winning. Dems should embrace the role of leading the charge for the rest of us against a GOP entirely devoted to crushing ordinary Americans for the greater good of the entrenched wealth and power elite.
Some of those shovel ready jobs had better materialize and fast. And there needs to be a loud clear easy to grasp message reminding people every day that tax cuts for the top have not and will not produce good jobs and a healthy economy as long as the top invests its money only in moving paper around to create now you see it, now you don’t wealth for themselves instead of creating good jobs and general prosperity by investing in producing real things of real value again.
If that can’t be done in today’s world economy then there is absolutely no chance that tax cuts for the rich will ever do anything other than what they’ve been doing: increasing the deficit and the divide between a few haves and the rest of us. Time to go back to top rates that still would have been considered extremely low under St. Reagan and that certainly didn’t hinder propsperity in the Clinton era.
We have chain saw ready fire mitigation projects on public lands in the Red Zone that would protect our forests and our Wildlands Urban Interface communities but we are missing the cash engine to hire professional logging contractors and restart the timber industry. Man I would like to see another round of stimulus money to fund some of these needed projects. In the long term jobs are necessary to reduce the deficit.
Currently all Dem pols seem to love to talk about is freeing up credit for small businesses. But what good is credit to expand or hire more people if potential clients and customers don’t have enough income to provide you with enough business to keep your present sized operation afloat?
Yes credit for small business is nice but what our small businesses and large businesses need most is people with money to spend, not just more debt, especially without enough business income to cover it. Putting people to work is the only way to accomplish that. Money paid to people who would be employed in the kind of projects you describe would release pent up demand for goods and services immediately.
Has Congressman Tancredo actually switched parties ?
Has he formed a committee ?
Does he have a campaign website ?
Has he been officially named the ACP candidate for Governor ?
What is going on ?
Party leadership has asked me not to break any more news stories; I put out the story (at 3 AM) of Big Ben Goss stepping aside (at Midnight) before the Party leadership had a chance to prepare a reaction.
So I’m anxious to see stories break either here, at the Statesman, at the Tancredo.org website, at the Independent, or at other newspapers. Stuff is happening; why isn’t the press telling us about it ?
Enquiring minds and all that.
in the American Constitution Party.
They might even tell you if they aren’t really a front for disgruntled Republicans.
Barron–a little advice. You ran as an ACP candidate. Get your party’s own shit sorted out before you try to make havoc elsewhere.
Of course, you can do whatever you want, but people like me will continue to call bullshit on you.
You strike me as a guy who doesn’t otherwise bullshit, so why start now?