It’s been way too long since we last asked this question, so let’s skip the formalities and get right to it.
As always, we want to know what you think will happen here — not what you want to happen or who you personally might support. If you had to place a bet on the outcome TODAY, who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
We don’t want to take up the entire screen with this one poll, so you’ll have to cast your vote after the jump…
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I'm impressed with Warren's strengthening position, and concerned that Harris appears to be fading, even in her home state of California. Harris can't just tread water. She has 6 months to figure it out, otherwise I think Warren will be the nominee.
Harris has three months and change to figure it out. If she doesn't show a strong third or even fourth in Iowa, she's in serious trouble. If she doesn't even pull in 15% to get any delegates, she's done then and there.
I believe Iowa is fading in influence as well. I think it will be mostly over by March with Super Tuesday
Oh, it will all be over after Super Tuesday, yeah. But Iowa is still first, and a campaign's strength and perceived ability to continue will be determined by the portrayal of the results. Her money and support drys up if she doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa – I think the Dems are going to coalesce around one of the candidates sooner than we all think.
Agreed,Orange. The debates have gone a long way toward sorting things out. Biden is too old , Bernie way too old. Elizabeth is too liberal, but smart enough to tack toward
center in the race with Stinky Boy.
bob Dole's "three tickets out of Iowa" are Warren and Biden, with just maybe boot edgeedge in third. The two out of New Hampshire are Warren and Bid en.
From then on, Warren rolls, though proportional representation means she still needs some dealing for a convention majority.
why do we bother to have elections at all?
The Big Line and the posters here are never wrong.
Good point
Far from fading, I think Iowa will give a big win to Warren that will kill off Bernie, badly weaken Biden, and after another win in next door New Hampshire set up the Persistent one for a giant win on S uper Tuesday.
i can live with that, though my heart is still with Amy.
So far, New Hampshire hasn't canceled its Republican primary, like some other states. Will continue to hope that Bill Weld runs well against Trump there. Given the historic independence of NH voters, Trump has got to be sweating that one.
But he has his secret weapon in the Granite State: Corey Lewandowski.
And his secret weapon in Moscow!
Warren is indeed coming on strong, but it's still too early to call favorites. Harris says she's "fucking moving to Iowa," so I'm not writing her off yet. That said, I'm comfortable writing off both Bernie and Biden by January in Iowa. Both of those women are stronger candidates than those old rivals. It comes down to a contest of who has the best ground game in Iowa, and that will be Warren or Harris. I'll grant Warren the edge given she was smart enough to figure that out months ago, but it will be close.
Don't forget, women are always at a disadvantage against the mansplainers.
By the time Iowa & New Hampshire are over it will be:
Warren & Biden closely competitive (Warren creams him in the first two but then comes Nevada and South Carolina).
Sanders at 15% and glides down to 8% over the course of the rest of the primaries. Down but not out
Harris or Booker gets enough to stay in, their hope being that Warren & Biden tie and they become the compromise candidate. Only one of them can continue though.
And the rest are out. One or two may have enough money to remain running to Super Tuesday, but they're done.
Tend to agree, but boot-edge-edge is veep if Lizzie is the nominee. If Biden wins, Amy is veep.
I think Warren will tap Booker for V.P. He's more establishment.
Alva…did someone vote multiple times?
How did Bernies'number skyrocket like that?
Looks like a bernie bot hack to me.
Probably today’s “Murder, She Wrote” reruns just ended.
Don’t assume. The Bernie folks are very active and organizing on the ground in Colorado. 24 events in Colorado this month alone. His people are committed, seasoned activists for the most part, and many think Warren is a sold-out shill.
They’ll vote for Warren if she’s the nominee, of course, as she’s more progressive than most of the other candidates.
I’m not on the Bernie bus this time around, but I worked with Our Revolution vetting local candidates. I’m obviously impressed with the quality of his loyalists. It is way too soon to write Bernie off.
Warren is a sold-out shill
Every time I hear that from the Bernie Bots, my impression of Elizabeth Warren grows.
I do agree that he will not go quietly especially since this is likely to be his last hurrah.
I realize most Bernie Bros. are committed. They SHOULD be committed.
Meanwhile, real Democrats are looking at Lizzie, Kamala and Amy and liking what they see.
Here he goes…..
https://time.com/5681261/working-families-party-harrassment/
Someone is feeling the burn.
Suddenly, Sheriff Joe and Chem-Trials Kelly aren't the craziest candidates offered up by the Arizona GOP….
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/09/18/mcsallys_gop_senate_challenger_wants_toannex_mexico__141291.html
I don't think he has really thought this through. There are 31 states plus Mexico City. If each became a US state, that is 64 new Democratic US Senators.
It makes you long for the days of Evan Mecham.
Shouldn't we be working on annexing Greenland first before we work on annexing Mexico?
Uh-uh, no way. Mexico has much nicer beaches!
Finally, a GOPer with at least half a brain . . .
Looks like the Arizona GOP is taking lessons from our state GOP
Bring back Chem-Trails, Kelly!
well… I'm pretty sure he wants to "annex" Mexico like Puerto Rico or the Mariana Islands. Or as one large state.
But he's not the administration's obstacle in AZ.
Mark Kelley is a bona fide astronaut. And a good candidate.