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May 23, 2010 07:15 AM UTC

Hawaii Special Election results

  • 19 Comments
  • by: DavidThi808

This is weird – the election ends at 6:00pm and they have numbers out from 5:12pm. But here it is (and the Hanabusa numbers are a giant surprise):

(R) DJOU, Charles 67,274 39.5%

(D) HANABUSA, Colleen 52,445 30.8%

(D) CASE, Ed 47,012 27.6%

My predictions:

1) There will be a Democratic primary in August.

2) That primary will be very close. Hanabusa is more liberal but she is the machine candidate and that hurts as much as helps.

3) Djou could win in November – with two big ifs. First, that he charts an independent course in D.C. Second, his odds are better against Hanabusa.

Comments

19 thoughts on “Hawaii Special Election results

  1. It’s sort of a mirror of NY-23.  But given where this District is, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see it go back in November.

    1. That’s what my mom got against Akaka. The question will be, can he build on that over 5 months in D.C. And will the Republican party let him build on that. I think an additional 10% is a lot, but not totally impossible.

      1. There wasn’t a single poll that predicted Case would come in third. And Djou didn’t even break 40%. Cologeek is right–chances are damn good this goes back to Dems hands in November. In fact, I’ll happily bet you a bottle of red win on it.  

  2. No email from him to supporters and no mention on his website about the results. I’m sure this was a shock (polls had Case right behind Djou) but no response yet pretty much means he’s not continuing.

    1. was by Merriman River Group and they had him tied with Hanabusa at 25% and down 14 points to Djou.

      They had Djou winning at 39.5% so they were pretty dead on.  

      1. if the poll had Djou at 39.5% with about 10% undecided, then either last-minute deciders went REALLY badly, or the poll overstated his support by a fair margin.  The persistence of that 39.5 number is an interesting coincidence… but that’s about all.

        1. It’s probably not too unthinkable that his 39.5% was relatively solid and the undecideds were just trying to figure out who (not Djou) to vote for.  There were something like 14 candidates on the ballot including Djou and the two major Democratic contenders.

      2. We were the pollster on the last poll (Merriman River). If you go to civilbeat.com, you can find our poll memo from that survey where we commented that Djou had maxxed out and that we were projecting Hanabusa to finish second. The reasons for those projections were two-fold. First, the undecideds were almost exclusively choosing between Case and Hanabusa, witnessed by Obama’s strong favorability among the undecided. Second, Japanese-Americans are generally slightly less likely to provide demographic information or take a survey. They were Hanabusa’s strongest group, which is why we projected her to outfinish Case in the May 22 count.

        Matt

  3. Huh.

    And if the national party hadn’t intervened and endorsed him over the choice of the local party, a Democrat would have won this seat?

    Huh.

  4. Hanabusa seems to have a clear lead among fired-up Dems, and those are the people who will be coming out for the primary.

    The turnout was higher than expected for this special election, and Hanabusa’s numbers far exceeded the polls; my read of that is that Hanabusa especially was able to motivate Dems to come out to try and keep the seat for Dems over the next 6 months.  With both she and Case in the race, though, it was pretty much doomed to failure; the district’s partisan, but not that partisan.

    1. If you’re a union member and you hadn’t voted in the last week, they would have someone drive over and “offer” to take your ballot in. Every bit of the Democratic machine was in full effort mode to bring Hanabusa above Case.

      Case finally sent out an email to everyone and it was silent on if he’ll run in the upcoming primary. My guess is that he’s strongly considering dropping out.

      But if he does run, you can ask for either ballot in the primary. With a close primary for both Governor and CD-1, most independents and a good chunk of Republicans will vote in the Democratic primary – and those voters tend to be a bit more conservative and anti-machine.

      So… Who knows…

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