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May 03, 2010 11:10 PM UTC

Good News for Democrats

  • 29 Comments
  • by: Raphael

I have always been of the opinion that the single most important factor in any election is the state of the economy. It’s a pretty basic analysis, for all the talk of people being “upset with Washington” or “Ready for change” are all really symptoms rather than causes another more deterministic (in terms of voting behavior) variable, namely the state of the economy.

This is why, as a Democrat, I was particularly pleased to see this bit of news today:

“Poll Shows Optimism on the Economy”

A growing number of Americans think the economy is improving and three-quarters of them approve of President Obama’s handling of the economy, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes…

As the opinions of the U.S. electorate on the state of the U.S. economy increase in favorability, so too do the chances of every Democrat up for re-election.

For all of the Republican bluster (i.e. witness House Minority Leader Boehner claiming that Republicans will win 100 seats this November), if these numbers keep increasing, Republicans chances of a House takeover will drop dramatically.

Forty-one percent said the economy was getting better, up from 33 percent about a month ago, while 15 percent described the economy as deteriorating.Of that 41 percent, 75 percent approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy.

If the trend continues, by the election upwards of 80% (5 months times 8 percentage points a month) of voters would think that the economy is getting better, settings for a Democratic landslide! Obviously that’s a bit of wishful thinking, but the trend is invariably good news.

And those pesky unaffiliated voters? This might be where the silver lining for Republicans is as

Sixty-one percent of Democrats said the economy was getting better, but only 16 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents agreed.

Which is particularly important for the voter group since perceptions on the economy make a larger difference for those who aren’t hard partisans. So maybe I’m being over-optimistic here, but economic perceptions also often play into a feedback loop where optimistic news feeds more optimism (just like when bad news about a stock market crash causes it to crash further), so hopefully we will see the U’s swept up in it as the economy improves.

Anyways, I think this is a big deal, what do you think?

How many seats will Republicans can in the U.S. House this November?

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29 thoughts on “Good News for Democrats”

  1. I think we lose 20 to 30 seats and that is only and if and I mean big if, the Independents start going our way, which in every single poll and study, they are not.

    If they don’t perceive it as improving, we lost 40 to 50 seats. What do I know, though?

    1. From the article Raphael linked:

      Most Democrats (77 percent) approve of the president’s handling the economy, while most Republicans disapprove (86 percent). Independents are divided: 46 percent approve, while 45 percent disapprove. Last month, more independents disapproved than approved of how Mr. Obama was handling the economy.

      It ain’t great, but it’s improving.

    2. why aren’t they going our way?

      I think that voting behavior of unaffiliated voters is most heavily influenced by perceptions of the economy. Therefore, if these numbers keep climbing and unaffiliated perceptions get swept up in them I think that Dems might lose less than 10 seats, which would be a huge win considering the types of districts the DCCC is defending.

      1. I will be taking the entire week off work to get drunk for about 5 days straight out of sheer joy. And no, I’m not kidding.

        2. that if we get our asses handed to us, I’m going to be doing the exact same thing. Either way, I’m going to be drunk for about 5 days, only entirely offline for all of it if it goes badly.

    3. I agree with Raphael that it’s mostly about the economy.  Independents should drift in our direction on that basis alone.

      But I do believe the Tea Party will have a distinct undertow effect in many Republican races.  

      1.  They drain GOP campaign funds on many primaries that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.

      2.  They force mainstream GOP candidates to take right-wing nutcase positions (gee, like supporting the AZ immigration law)

      3.  If the Tea Party candidate wins the GOP primary, turning off both GOP and Independents that would have voted for a moderate candidate.

        2. LB, check out Ellie’s post in the other thread, explaining that McInnis’ burn rate is due to his spending against his primary opponents.  That’s support for my point #1 above.

          Point #2 support — again, McInnis’ early and eager support for the AZ immigration bill that is already getting backlash from even the GOP.

          Point #3 — If Ken Buck beats Jane Norton for the GOP nomination, then I’ll be laughing all the way to the polls in November as Buck gets crushed by Bennet.

          On the flip side, if Romanoff and Buck each beat their erstwhile better funded, party-backed opponents, it could start a new trend of no-budget campaigns 😉

  2. 41%  think the economy is getting better.

    Of that 41% 3/4 or 30% think Obama is doing a good job on the economy.

    Therefore, the economy is swell and the Democrats don’t lose any seats?  What?

    Obey bailed today.  He has been in DC 100 years and comes from a Democratic district.  

    The D’s lose 50 seats in the House, 8 in the Senate and 5 Governors.  

    All the evidence susggests it is not a good year to be an incumbent and as the majority party guess who that affects disproportionately?

    1. Sorry, you shot your teabagger load too soon, and Democratic successes will keep bringing our poll numbers up.

      Your calculation is wrong (yes, 3/4 of 41% is 30%, but a bunch of people who think the economy is not getting better still think Obama is doing the best he can).

      Sorry to say it, really truly I am, but the people who have or are looking for jobs are going to determine this election, and your teabaggers on Medicare and Social Security and disability and unemployment can’t do anything about it.

      Your revolution is over, H-man. The bums lost.

      1. RCP Poll Averages

        President Obama Job Approval

        RCP Average

        Approve48.5Disapprove44.8Spread +3.7

        Congressional Job Approval

        RCP Average

        Approve22.5Disapprove70.5Spread -48.0

        Generic Congressional Vote

        RCP Average

        Republicans44.1Democrats42.9Republicans +1.2

        Direction of Country

        RCP Average

        Right Direction36.5Wrong Track57.5Spread -21.0

        Still got a little room to go,

  3. How is that energized base working for ya?  Here’s what the numbers from Tuesday show:

    Dem Turnout Falls Off A Cliff

    May 5, 2010 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | Share This

    By Reid Wilson

    Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.

    In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.

    Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in ’06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced serious primary opponents.

    Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters — or 18% of all registered Dem voters — who turned out in ’04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.

    And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in ’02 and the 304K who turned out in ’06.

    By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr’s uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in ’04. Turnout in House races in IN rose 14.6% from ’06, fueled by the competitive Senate primary, which attracted 550K voters. And 728K voters cast ballots for a GOP Sec/State nominee in Ohio, the highest-ranking statewide election with a primary; in ’06, just 444K voters cast ballots in that race.

    Ouch.

  4. From our friends at the Drudge report:

    DOW SWINGS 1010 POINTS, 2ND LARGEST IN HISTORY…

    VIDEO OF DRAMA…

    CNBC: FAT FINGER, HUMAN ERROR IN TRADE CAUSED PLUNGE… PUSHED ‘B’ INSTEAD OF ‘M’?

    DID SOMEONE HACK THE SYSTEM?

    REPORT: BAD TRADE TRACED TO CITI…

    MARKET VIOLENCE!

    FEAR, EURO WEAKENS, RIOTS CONTINUE IN GREECE, RETAIL DISAPPOINTS  

    Oops.

    1. So now Greece’s disastrous economy and the crisis in Portugal and Spain is the Dems fault, too?

      What’s left that you would like to blame us for–the crucifixion of Christ?

        1. I was isolating a specific instance of something that is good news for Democrats.

          As to your other posts, regardless of what the numbers are now, the point is that as the economy improves and numbers on the perceptions of the economy improve the poll numbers will turn as well.

          1. Raphael

            I disagreed with you that the economy is getting better and think it is a stretch to think there is good news for Dems.

            You could say that it is good news when the ship Titanic hit the ocean floor because it was not going down any more.  I would say it was bad news that the Titanic sunk.

            You could say it will be good news that the Dems hold on to over 200 seats in the house in November.  I would say it was bad new that they lost the majority.

            Your could say it will be good news that several Dem senators are reelected.  I would say it was bad news that they lose 8 seats.

            Keep on coming up with cheerful news if you like.  The economy is going to save the Dems in November?  Unemployment is up today by .2% to 9.9%.  The stock market, which some call a leading indicator of the economy, is down 5% since your posting.

            Let’s just say we disagree on the significance of this piece of “good news”.

            1. You mean like calling people idiots? Couldn’t agree with you more–very bad form indeed.

              You want Jane “the idiot” Norton-government employee making these decisions directly for you.  She would have decided no screening and there would have been no screening.

              Jane “the idiot” Norton-government employee could only not require the coverage.  

              Fortunately, most insurance companies provided that type of coverage anyway because it was less expensive for them to provide screening and catch things early than to pay for cancer treatment when it was caught at a more advanced stage.  

              It also saved lives which apparently was not high on the Jane “the idiot” Norton then Lt Governor’s to do list.

              1. I have also called Jane “the Lobbyist” and several other descriptions in the context of posts.  I have not called a poster a name.  But perhaps you knew that.

                1. of the merits of your preferred candidate of choice if you lightened up on the name calling of his opponent.

                  And no, I don’t follow you religiously so I have no idea what you do or don’t call posters around here. I just see your posts regarding Norton and your rhetoric is having the opposite effect on me than the one I think you’re aiming for.

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