CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 19, 2018 04:01 PM UTC
38 Comments
Let the Games….. begin.
Except that Ed Perlmutter just screwed the pooch, as they say, by joining the #fivewhiteguys caucus attacking Nancy Pelosi.
Nancy Pelosi is vilified by Republicans, but has been a very successful and very powerful leader for the democrats… of course that is precisely why Republicans hate her.
But, Republican hate towards Pelosi is sort of irrelevant within a Democratic primary for Senator.
I can agree that it's time for the Democrats to start grooming new leadership, and Pelosi would be a good person to be in charge of that.
Yeah, big black mark against him.
Meh. I think of it as a minor scuff mark to a non-issue. If the race was between Perlmutter and anyone else on the big line I would pick Ed every time in the likely event that I am using my unaffiliated prerogative to vote in the Dem. primary.
Gods. I hope it's not Hickenlooper who runs for senate. Or, heck, even president.
I'm voting Warm Body for President. I'd consider cold, dead body if Trump was the only alternative.
I think Any Democrat with a pulse should have an asterisk.
Shouldn't Roger Edwards be up there as Jason Crow's opponent in C.D. 6?
Don't forget to include this guy:
Is Michael Bennet making a 2020 move?
Only if Hick does not run. Not enough oxygen in the room for two Colorado centrists to run.
zappy, any thoughts?
I am not zappy. My perspective might be a bit like a more mellow version of his, though.
My thought is that if Bennet or Hickenlooper is the Democratic nominee it will be a replay of 2016. Either of them would be more qualified than any Republican I can think of actually being the party nominee in 2020. They also have about as much charisma as H. Clinton and I would expect them to barely win against the Yam. They win they would win with no majority in the Senate and nothing would really change, some Democrats are fired up by them, but people like me say to themselves, "Okay, I'll vote but I cannot see myself giving time or money to this guy."
I have some bad news for you. The Dems are going to have trouble getting a majority in the Senate no matter who is at the top of the ticket. We will probably win Colorado, Maine, and Arizona but lose Alabama. How many other states are likely to flip? North Carolina? Maybe but I would not bet a lot of money on it.
In 2022, our chances get a lot better (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida – with felons having their voting rights restored – and who knows, maybe even Iowa). But we may be stuck with Mitch McConnell running the show for the next four years.
I think a candidate with a big huge dose of charm could pull a few otherwise marginal Republican Senate seats over the line.
In 2008 Democrats won in North Carolina in part because of the right candidate there, but also because of the enthusiasm for Obama. Kay Hagan only kept the seat for 6 years, but that happened. Also weird small state stuff can happen with a popular candidate at the top of the ticket like winning Alaska, again Mark Begich only kept that seat for 6 years, but a win is a win.
In 2020 there are a bunch of small states where personality or local issues might be enough to unseat an otherwise safe Republican. Iowa, South Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska, and Montana have faint chances with the right tailwind. Or no chance at all if the Democrats do not get lucky in the local nominee. Or if it is a "blah" election with people voting out of duty rather than because they are in love with the guy or gal running for President.
Also, this is not a center vs. left issue. For someone like me proposing that things just go back to a before the Great Recession normal does not help, but objectively speaking Clinton was not good at getting Democrats enthused. Obama had almost exactly the same policy positions, but people LOVED him. Democrats, at least, loved Bill Clinton. They turned out and donated in a way that they did not for Hillary Clinton.
I think that Sanders would NOT have automatically won against Trump. Or that a liberal would always be the better choice. This is about the sense of excitement and charm that great candidates can bring regardless of their positions. Bennet does not have it. Hickenlooper has a small pond version of it that put him over the top in Colorado against some really BAD Republicans. They’re not Obama charming.
I hope both run so that they can help split the centrist vote in the primary.
That would be unfortunate since there are not enough centrists to go around. Better to coalesce around one viable centrist and let the looney left divide itself.
I guess it IS true. Every Senator looking in the mirror thinks "I could be President."
The link says Bennet, Hickenlooper AND Ken Salazar have thoughts about a run.
Math?
WHo said anything about math. This is not math. This is..the worst kind of clickbait.
It is clear to anyone with half a brain that Vicki Marble will be the next US Senator from Colorado.
Nonsense, Andrea Merida of the Green party will surprise everyone! Colorado wants a real choice! Right to Rest! Ban gasoline! Small fluffy kittens!
What the hell do you have against Right to Rest? Do you think that homeless people should routinely have their shelters and possessions confiscated, be jailed for sleeping in public, yet still denied mental health treatment and their basic needs met?
No affordable housing fix, either, nor will be while our legislators are bought out by the mega building contractors. There’s still plenty profit to be squeezed from the renting, 3 jobs-to-make-ends-meet masses.
In spite of your snark, I don't recall any legislation promoting either banning gasoline or declaring National Kitten Week.
As for Andrea Merida, I don't agree with some of her positions, but I'd take her over Cory Gardner or any of the Republican leadership any day.
Right to Rest is one of those many things that activists love, but most of the people who vote for Democrats are against. It is an example of something so outside the mainstream that even the deepest blue districts would vote against it because as liberal as they might be almost everyone deep down is a NIMBY.
It is an almost a perfect example of why, if it were Gardner vs. Merida or even Marble vs. Merida, most people would probably vote for the crazy conservative instead of the crazy liberal.
Where is your source for your assertion: "Most of the people who vote for Democrats are against [right to rest]? Were you unaware that Joseph Salazar, known for his sponsorship of this bill, among others, came within 5,100 votes of being elected Colorado's Attorney General? That the "Right to Rest" bill garnered 7 votes in the House before it ultimately died in committee, just as hundreds of homeless die or are assaulted on the streets each year in Colorado. The bill's sponsors and supporters all got re-elected this year, minus Salazar who quit to run for AG. So your argument that people who vote for Democrats are against Right to Rest makes as much sense as a cardboard box is a shelter against a blizzard.
No, your failure is not a failure of information – merely a failure of compassion. You don't want to see the neediest and least among us, because they make you uncomfortable.
If the homeless are out of sight, swept up into jails and under bridges where conditions are even more hazardous, then your atrophied conscience is clear.
Do you feel superior when the homeless folks get their pitiful belongings bulldozed and confiscated? Do you feel relieved when you no longer are accosted for spare change, no longer have to see a desperate person begging with a cardboard sign at an intersection? They are still struggling and dying on the streets, you get that, but as long as it's not in your face, life is good.
Do you even support and vote for affordable housing in Denver? Are you even aware how high rents are climbing, how few options poor people have? As long as your shelter is assured, life is good.
What will those poor Californians, climate refugees from the fires, do for shelter when they come to Colorado? As long as you don't have to see them sleeping in their cars, life is good.
As long as you can play "punch the hippie" and posture on a blog as a moderate "sensible" Democrat who would never vote for a bill to treat homeless people with humanity and preserve their civil rights, life is good.
MJ: having spent 17 years working in a Colorado social services program, I am mostly out of compassion for the homeless. Most are on the streets by choice; at least that's what the client content of my caseloads said. Metro Denver has plenty of options for homeless people, and most are not mentally ill either. But some just want to be on the streets. I think the city is right to just say NO. And so is DENependent.
Most recently, saw a woman in her early 20s with a three year old,, being interviewed on TV and talking about struggling to get by. But, she had recently moved here because she HEARD there were jobs to be found in Denver. Really? Didn't do any more research than that? Sounds like poor decision making to me. Taxpayers in Colorado responsible for that person? And I also thought: where is the father of the 3 year old? Getting support payments?
It's called "compassion fatigue," MJ. Don't criticize those who have walked this walk.
You just stay real comfy in that compassion fatigue, CHB. Just keep on judging. Keep on driving by. Your fellow humans are not your responsibility. Avert your eyes. If you don't look, they don't exist.
And, by the way, you are dead wrong. Most homeless are not homeless "by choice". Most are one paycheck, maybe even one day short on a paycheck, away from becoming homeless.
A fundamental misconception: the "Right to Rest" law was not about saying "No" to homelessness. It is strictly about the city’s practice, via the no urban camping ordinance”, of keeping the homeless people out of the public view. The “No urban camping ordinance” is cruel. It is probably unconstitutional, consisting of taking and destroying private property of homeless persons.
And it is probably coming up for a vote again next year, so try to become informed on it. The next version of the right to rest law will try to overturn the “no urban camping” ordinance, which makes homelessness a crime and confiscation of the property of homeless people an accepted practice.
Try to become informed about current conditions next time you are moved to preach. The world has changed for the worse since you were a social worker.
You just said the right to rest law was cruel, unconstitutional, about keeping the homeless out of public view, etc. I assume you got so entangled in liberal pieties that you said the opposite of what you meant to say. Take a deep breath and sort out your syntax.
Thanks VG. I hate to say it, but there are a lot of "liberal pieties" there. As for me being informed, I am fully in touch with what is currently happening on these matters.
Unfortunately, it seems that one can't have opinions that are separate from the ultra left agenda, even if one has real world experience in dealing with these inner city issues. Also talking here about actual homeless, not those who “may” be “one paycheck away” from being on the streets.
CHB, obviously you can "have opinions". I also have the right to disagree, in print, with those opinions. So don't pretend you're getting censored by me. You aren't.
You also are not the only person here with "real world experience" dealing with homelessness. We should chat sometime about my experiences running the first shelter for battered and "in transition" women in Denver. As well as many years of dealing with friend and family housing crises.
To answer your questions about climate refugees and homelessness:
California Camp fire leaves 27,000 homeless. You think at least some of those people aren't coming to Colorado?
Colorado resettled 57,000 refugees in 2016. Those are the legal, vetted refugees who have agencies and NGOs helping them to find housing. In addition, there are 250,000 Puerto Rican refugeees in the US, and thousands in Colorado. There are probably twice that number of undocumented refugees, fleeing economic and climate hardships in their home countries, seeking survival for themselves and their families. They are living 4 or 5 families to a small apartment. It's horrific for physical and mental health. I mostly get to deal with the kids from those situations.
Then there are climate refugees from Texas, from desertification in the Sudan, from hurricanes, from flooding from wildfires. There are statistics on all of those – but I a) don't have time to run all that down for you, since its time for me to stop cooking and get travelling over the river and through the turnpike and b) I don't think you read the sources I cite, anyway, judging by your responses.
We in Colorado are geologically stable (barring earthquakes from forced injection of fracking fluid, tend to rarely get catastrophic weather compared to coastal cities.
That's all I'm going to respond right now. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
Mj
Colorado is hardly free of catastrophic weather. You live, as I long did, in Tornado Alley. When I was a kid, one nasty one killed a neighbor near our farm.
Have a great holiday.
corrected. It's the "No urban camping" ordinance that criminalizes homelessness and makes taking the property of homeless people an accepted practice.
Overturning the "camping ban" is coming up for a vote again next year. People should try to become informed about it. Rents are not going down, no matter how fashionable "compassion fatigue" becomes among hipsters.
Homelessness will continue to increase, with wildfire and other climate refugees flocking to Colorado. "Out of sight, out of mind" is not a viable strategy to deal with the problem.
Please cite sources for "wildfire and other climate refugees coming to Colorado."
VG is correct about catastrophic weather. I got a new roof a year ago courtesy of the May 8, 2017 hail storm.
"Colorado is geologically stable." Not so quick there. This area extends up into Colorado via the San Luis Hills…….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taos_Plateau_volcanic_field
The San Juan Mtns. in SW CO are volcanic in origin. While most vulcanologists would say the area is extinct, there is still low level activity. There is an active sulphur vent in Silver Pick Basin, on the NW slopes of Wilson Peak (see the Coors beer can to view the NE side). I've smelled it a couple times. The area is also close to the volcanic San Francisco Peaks of N AZ.
Were you unaware that Joseph Salazar, known for his sponsorship of this bill, among others, came within 5,100 votes of being elected Colorado's Attorney General?
You mean that he came within 5,100 votes of being nominated. Whether he would have won or lost is pure speculation.
True. I guess I shouldn't cook dinner while blogging.
I never make misteaks!
Hick will destroy Smiley Face for Senate. Don’t forget Hick wanted to be Senator but was passed up for Bennet.
Beto O’Rourke for President, 2020. (I was one of Obama’s earliest supporters. I’m not Itlduso for nothin.)
Can we PLEASE have some experience with a large organization before running for President.
How about Biden/Beto as a ticket. Biden for having a pretty good sense of how things run and who to call, Beto to speak for the ticket and keep Biden from making as many gaffes.
Of course, I'm betting the Democrats are not going to look into the vast field of candidates and select two white guys — even ideologically correct white guys — for their ticket.
Amy Klobuchar is my early choice. I love Hillary but face it: she spent 1.2 billion dollars and lost to the worst candidate since Benedict Arnold. Hickenlooper for veep.
Klobuchar fits my top level requirements — younger than 60, ran something larger than a Senate staff (when she was a county DA). And I like her ability to get things done — sponsored and co-sponsored laws and amendments passed put her at or near the top of the Democratic caucus. She wrote and passed some good legislation focused on nonprofit organizations.