NY Times Wraps Up CO-6 Poll: Crow Leads Coffman 47-38

The New York Times wrapped up a very long “live” poll in CO-6, and the final numbers aren’t much better for Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) than they were at first glance a few weeks back. The Crowmentum continues!

In discussing its polling data in CO-6 and other key Congressional races around the country, Nate Cohn of the New York Times wrote on Wednesday that he expects these results to more or less hold depending on turnout in the General Election. This analysis fits with everything else we’ve seen lately, from national Republicans abandoning Coffman to Coffman’s own campaign releasing an internal poll showing their candidate losing to Democrat Jason Crow.

We’ve learned from prior races that Coffman has a way of sticking around and pulling out a victory on Election Day, so it’s way too early for Democrats to start celebrating in CO-6. Nevertheless, Crow appears to be a solid favorite with less than three weeks to go.

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14 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. unnamed says:

    It's like our good friend the anti-Quisling Moderatus said on here a few days ago:

    Moderatus says:

    October 16, 2018 at 2:46 PM MDT

    Jason Crow is light years ahead of the competition and it drives the Republicans crazy. When he wins the election Trumpian MAGAts are going to cry their eyes out.

     

  2. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "With MoE, it is a tie" says Debbie Downer.

  3. RepealAndReplace says:

    this is good news…..especially since all of our eggs are in one basket now (i.e., winning the House of Representatives). The Senate has moved further out of reach. Real Clear Politics has it ending up as 54 to 46 with no Dem gains and Republican taking ND, MO and FL.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

    Taking the House means blocking repeal of the Affordable Care Act, blocking more reckless tax cuts, starting investigations and holding a symbolic vote to impeach Trump and/or Kavanaugh.

    It doesn't help us block any of the judicial appointments. 

  4. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    Wrong again.  Debbie is as bad with statistics as Dave Barnes is.  A margin of error of 5 pct at the 95 pct confidence level means you could add or subtract 5 pct from any number in the field and have a 1 in 20 chance of being right.  But you can't thus alter BOTH numbers in the field — known in the trade as "the Barn es blunder" — without changing the odds of being right to just one in 400 – 1 in 20 times 1 in 20.   The moe applies to ANY number but not to ALL simultanely at a given confidence level.  If there are 500 Afghans in the district, there is a chanc e that a sample of 400 would be all afghan, but the ch ance of that actually happening is well less than one in a million.

    i know Dave loves it when I publicly correct his errors, so you are welcome 😉

  5. Independent Voter says:

    I'm proud of Colorado and I think we'll at least add to the democrats odds of taking the house and elect a governor that will stand against the policies of the draft dodging traitor Trump when they hurt Colorado.

    Real clear is showing 47 seats that lean dem with 3 toss ups. I think Dems will take Arizona and Nevada but lose ND and we may end up with a split 50/50 Senate with Pence giving republicans control. It's still possible for Dems take the Senate but the odds are low. I don't see anything on Real Clear forecasting Dems to lose 3 seats. 

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

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