U.S. Senate
See Full Big Line
(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
See Full Big Line
(D) Michael Bennet
(D) Phil Weiser
60%↑
50%↓
Att. General
See Full Big Line
(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) David Seligman
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
See Full Big Line
(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) J. Danielson
(R) Sheri Davis
50%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
See Full Big Line
(D) Brianna Titone
(D) Jeff Bridges
(R) Kevin Grantham
40%
40%
30%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd*
(R) H. Scheppelman
(D) Alex Kelloff
70%
30%
10%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Trisha Calvarese
(D) Eileen Laubacher
90%
20%
20%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Shannon Bird
45%↓
30%
30%
30%
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 29, 2009 05:00 PM UTC
24 Comments
Loading ...
wins the Western Slope, if he survives that long…
He will bring out the extremists, who tend to run the GOP nomination and primary process. And frankly, the extremists don’t care about his policy flip-flops, as long as he is “right” on their pet social issues. As a perceived moderate, McInnis won’t fare well in the primary, although he probably would be the strongest Republican candidate to challenge Ritter.
The storyline that McInnis is chicken is starting to resonate. If it grows for another month like this McInnis, even with more money, will suddenly find himself dropping in the polls.
I also think Penry is stronger in the general. All of us Dems look at them and say McInnis is less bad so of course he’s stronger. But the election is decided but high turnout of the base (Penry definitely gets that) and appealing to the true swing voters. Those swing voters are not closet Dems.
Nor are they closet Republicans. They’re non-ideological pragmatists, and McInnis is ideally suited to appeal to them; Penry isn’t.
As we discussed a few days ago http://coloradopols.com/showCo… the media is questioning the Congressman’s relevence, commitment, positions. Oh it might be worded as “where’s the debate”, but its masking so many other issues.
The Congressmans “it’s my time” principle probably doesn’t cut it with Dean Singleton nor will it compel Colorado voters.
Continuing McTrends. It’s been laziness, odd phone calls discussing 527s, the Silverman freakout, lacking situational awareness and the complete lack of a compelling message back to back and week after week.
Sure, this is a bad news day for McInnis, but one or two bad days like this is well worth not awarding Penry bigger press later in debates. And it’s not like Penry can debate without McInnis, because if he shows up on a stage with just Dan Maes, then he looks like he has more in common with Maes than McInnis — which is absolutely not the image he needs.
McInnis will get a few bad stories and editorials for not debating, but the media can’t really harp on this story because the majority of the public doesn’t care — it’s not a big enough story to extend for weeks, let alone months.
We’ve always been about political commentary and strategy. And from where we’re sitting, McInnis’ strategy still makes a lot of sense.
“made a lot of sense.”
And compared to McInnis’ “I’m too chicken to debate but vote for me anyway” strategy, the Titanic’s “We ain’t afraid of no icebergs” strategy did make sense.
I’m a registered Republican who knows both men and have favored McInnis. But the soundings I’ve made among R base voters indicate they don’t like the cowardly lion approach.
Republican base voters may not like this, but they make up less than 10% of the overall primary voters. The “base” voters — the people who will go to the caucus — will not decide the outcome of this race.
Despite what insider “base” voters like to think, primary battles don’t involve them. Most “base” voters will make up their minds early and remain unmovable. The overwhelming majority of primary voters are people who don’t pay close attention to politics and will vote rather blindly in August.
McInnis is polling far ahead, while Penry has very low ID numbers, and at this point there’s no reason to help boost his opponents’ name ID. If McInnis angers “base” voters in the process, so what? As long as he maintains a lead with the other 90% of the voters who will actually decide the outcome, we’re fairly sure he’ll take that trade off.
but don’t you want a triangulated R debate?
Even if there is no chicken suit, it could be great.
…the world’s different now (ask JFG if the rules have changed). What can happen is a story is built on the web about a candidate and come election time it’s been locked in to most people’s minds.
Before Clinton we did not have the permanent campaign. He started his campaign for re-election the day after he was elected and had a major advantage from it.
I don’t know how well Penry is using the net. And I don’t know how much it will matter in 10 months. But it could be that when McInnis thinks the campaign is really starting – that it’s already over.
She ran a 1998 campaign against Jared Polis. He ran a 2008 campaign. I don’t think Joan ever realized that she could lose, much less that she was losing.
It wasn’t solely the money, but it also wasn’t solely the new media that won it for Polis. He was on TV more than any other candidate running that year except for maybe Barack Obama.
that campaigns are different now than when McInnis ran before, DT8 is right. I don’t know Joan Fitzgerald and didn’t follow the campaigns. I do know the Polis campaign did a really good job framing the campaign – early and often.
But if it’s a depressed-turnout GOP primary, then Penry has a chance to even the odds between now and the summer. But with both a competitive governor and senate Republican primary, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
he ran hard to the right against coors and got beat soundly. I think McInnis wins this in a walk. Bob Schaffer at least had name ID.
McInnis has the contacts and the fundraising ability that Penry lacks. While the conservative activists may support Penry, McInnis will have the resources to launch a media blitz to win the hearts and minds of the typical Republican primary voters.
More fundamentally, Penry comes across as too young to serve as Colorado’s Chief Executive — not that McInnis is Mr. Gravitas himself.
You don’t think the scraggly mustache helps?
I have a scraggly mustache.
I tried shaving it off in 1978, but I just didn’t look the same.
No fair commenting on whether “now” is the same as 1978.
he isn’t some guy that’s lower then dirt. He’ll have a chance at the convention.
A chance to do what?
which I did, does that mean I lose my house either way? I’m not much of a hedge manager.