President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
December 27, 2017 10:50 AM UTC
34 Comments
Moderanus calls in backup.
PLEASE Republicans send him some backup. He sucks and we'd like better debates.
Life's been tough for nutlid since Cornholio went to jail after Charlottesville. And he's too dumb to realize how out of his depth he is.
Having learned nothing from the last time they convened, the Republicans will give the Tanc a ~70% win at the convention, locking out all but Staples and the taller Coffman from the ballot. The latter two will split the moderate vote in the primary, but that won't matter since Tanc will run away with >55%.
It will be a close match between Polis, Kennedy, and Johnston, with the three finishing in that order. Mitt Romney's cousin, having gotten lost, will come in 5th on the Dem ballot.
Coffman loses (finally), Tipton comes surprisingly close to defeat. Doug "the Cockroach" Lamborn escapes yet another primary as well.
Sonny Perdue will resign after a sexual assault scandal, and Trump will select our own Ken Buck to succeed him. A Democrat will win the special election to fill his seat. Trump will blame Ken Buck for getting raped by Sonny Perdue.
Dems will sweep the statewide seats, and will pick up three State Senate seats.
Cory Gardner will run up a $15,000 dental bill (at the taxpayer's expense) getting the shit removed from his teeth when he finally realizes his job is on the line w/ Trump at the top of the ticket.
Trump will convince his followers that we've invaded North Korea, unseated Kim Jong Un, and placed 6-star General Jared Kushner as Commander of the region.
I give it a 10% chance he actually accidentally bombs South Korea.
Mike Pence will resign as Vice President when it comes out that he once shook the hand of a female ambassador when his wife was in another room.
White Supremacist and Evangelical leaders will declare their affinity towards ISIS, which by the end of next year rebrands itself iSIS in an attempt to attract Millennials.
The Senate splits 50-50. Collins doesn't switch parties.
The House will swing to 222 – 213. Pelosi becomes Speaker once again. Conservative basement dwellers commit mass suicide.
The secret to destroying Vicki Marble's space station, the dominant force in the galaxy, will be discovered after she reveals the plans to a local girl scout troop.
The Mueller investigation finds that significant portions of the Trump campaign and transition teams were indeed involved with Russian sources trying to get damning information on HRC. Trump is not directly implicated in collusion.
Trump is found to have obstructed the investigation while President, but Republicans in the House see a deeper conspiracy involving Hillary and the FBI and refuse to impeach.
Trump pardons or commutes crimes/sentences after the investigation completes.
There is evidence found during the investigation that Trump has committed significant money laundering, and Mueller allows NYS AG Schneiderman to prosecute the case, which is set for 2019.
Federal agencies continue to see massive purges and/or staff exoduses as the Aministration and its Congressional allies continue to attack them. This causes enforcement shortages, and courts begin to rule that the Administration is in violaton of laws on these protections. The Administration blames the problems on staff shortages and ignores the courts. 25% of appointed positions remain unfilled by 2019.
The FBI and DOJ are indeed purged of staff critical of Trump, leading to a massive crisis of credibility of our justice system.
The ongoing political idiocy drives an elections result of a 51-49 Democratic advantage in the Senate and a 220-215 takeover in the House.
Justice Kennedy doesn't retire for the next session, and once Trump realizes his reshaping of the Court has been blocked, he further tries to erode the reputation of the judiciary in a major way. This is helped by ongoing approvals (bench-stuffing) of unqualified extremists, with only the worst 5% bring blocked.
Trump quits after the election, leaving Pence with the mess.
as horrible as this whole mess is……..I'm with you on all of these.
Sadly, SFL Bennet will yearn throughout 2018 for a single bill, bipartisan solution to all our nation's woes with one of his Anti-Democratic/Sociopathic Troll Friend Senators on the right.
And the only thing that could possibly complete the mess is The Pee Tape running in a loop on the giant screen in Times Square to memorialize Trump's resignation…….
Mike W's predictions are entertaining, but Phoenix's are probably more accurate. I wish Mike were right about Ken Buck being promoted to a Trump cabinet position.
Bucky 's vacant congressional seat would be filled by a Democrat in a special election….which is probably why Buck declined to run for the AG job after Cynthia Coffman deserted it. Win the Fourth is still organizing to elect real constituent representation in CD4.
I just don't know about his 51-49. Can we really bat 1000 while taking AZ and NV? Or alternatively, lose one but take TN?
I agree. I think Indiana and Missouri are at serious risk. They've apparently learned from 2012 and are trying to avoid nominating another Todd Akin or Richard Mordock. Here's hoping Bannon and Breitbart come through for us.
They just aren't succeeding at nominating good candidates. AZ and NV are both on track to nominate crappy candidates. Meanwhile we have popular ex-Gov. Breseden in TN running for Senate.
I do agree that MN is shaky now. This is a tough year for Dem Senate chances. I'm being bold here…
8 months ago it would have been out of range except in the most extreme cases of weirdness. OTOH, Republicans seem especially prone to finding said weirdness in their Senate candidates. And Democrats are sitting on a massive 12 point generic ballot advantage right now. I just don't see the Congress or administration turning less nutty for 2018 no matter how much it might pain McConnell.
I really thought that Christine O´Donnell in Delaware was probably the exotic candidate the GOP would run and Todd Akin was probably the most stupid followed closely by Richard Mordock in Indiana.
But all three were eclipsed by the sight of Judge Roy Moore mounting 14-year old "Sassy" with his Tablet of the Ten Commandments in tow.
Bucky's vacant congressional seat would be filled by a Democrat…..
A month ago if you said that, I would have laughed and said you were delusional but after the Alabama special election, I'm starting to believe all things are possible, especially if the GOP nominates some real nut job.
Would Marilyn Musgrave be up for another run?
Best prediction that would come true for me would be for Trump and Zinke to lose big in federal court for their illegal attempts to reduce the sizes of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments
God would I love for that to happen.
Okay. Dems gain house majority by picking up 30 seats and Republicans pick up 1 seat from the Dems. Paul Ryan comes so close to losing his own district and resigns in early 2019. Going out on a limb to say Mike Coffman loses. The tax scam vote comes back to bite him. We manage to get to 52-48 Senate where we hold all of purs and pick up AZ, NV & TN.
Tancredo ultimately carries the GOP nod for Governor while Walker and Cynthia were too busy fighting with each other. Jared polis wins a hotly contested primary against Cary Kennedy, after which he asks her to be his running mate. They go on to win the election with 58% of the vote. Phil Weiser cleans George Brauchler's clock in the AG's race. Dave Young gets elected Treasurer. Wayne Williams BARELY gets reelected SOS. The recount went into December. We pick up SDs 16 and 24 to get a 19-16 majority in the State Senate. We also pick up HDs 25 and 47 giving us a 39-26 majority.
Similar shifts happen across the country.
Trump rage tweets the morning after the election about how FAKE NEWS covfefe rigged the election. SAD!!!
Nutlid has a major mental breakdown and Grammy Marble tales him to the nuthouse.
I sure hope you're right about the AG race. Brauchler would be both incompetent and insufferable.
Prediction: Pueblo Councillor Lori Winner will not become Pueblo's Mayor in 2018.
Here's a quote from Winner on why Pueblo's homeless shelters do not need more funding. Winner, currently on City Council, will run for Mayor since Pueblo decided that it wants a Mayor to replace its present Council/ City Manager structure.
Winner is an RN who has lived in Pueblo, Cabo San Lucas, Denver and Breckenridge. Her FB bio lists no specific social work experience with homeless individuals. Her statements seem to be stereotypical and without compassion, as southern Colorado's homeless population continues to increase.
Right wing pundits like to blame Colorado's legal cannabis laws for homelessness. However, according to the Colorado Coalition for the Homeless, homelessness has many causes, including rising rents without rising wages, mental illness, domestic abuse, attitudes about LGBT people, opioid addiction, and more.
Winner's expressed opinions are based on nothing but prejudice, and should disqualify her for higher office.
MJ: exactly what is your personal experience in dealing with homeless populations? I dealt with a lot of that population during my social services career. Winner is correct in saying "there are others who choose to be homeless." Her comment about "a lot of them are fine" is tasteless, although she also has a point about drug and alcohol usage.
No one should be homeless as society provides the means to change that status. But, until there are dignified sweeps by police and social workers, and crackdowns on sleeping outdoors on public property (except for camping in campgrounds or in USFS dispersed camp areas), the homeless will remain with us.
CHB: My personal experiences with homelessness are, in chronological order:
A summer vagabonding, hitchhiking and taking buses up and down the west coast, drawing portraits at fairs for money, sleeping in parks and under bushes and in cheap motels, crashing on couches. It was an adventure, and ultimately, I had backup knowing that my family would be there for me. So a taste of homelessness without true risk. I did get to see Haight-Ashbury up close and personal, long after the "summer of love" had gone sour.
2 years running the first "transitional shelter" for women in Denver, Women in Transition (WIT) House. I did that when I was 19. I interviewed, found services for, and helped women from all backgrounds to become stable. Domestic abuse, prejudice against LGBT folk, immigration to find work, mental illness, and low wages vs high rents/deposits were issues the women came in the door with. On occasion, I had to evict people knowing that there was nowhere for them to go but the streets.
Friends and family members: My ex- husband was a homeless vet living in his van when I met him, and was homeless for awhile after we divorced. I had various friends and roommates who were homeless until they moved in with me. Yes, I was a "rescuer", but my life was richer because of it.
My daughter was homeless when she was in the worst of her meth addiction. Hospitals wouldn't keep her, the shelters were full, no one would treat her.
She lived in her car one winter. I tried having her stay with me and that didn't work. She was jailed for 6 months, and homeless when released, Maslow's hierarchy applies; my daughter is doing well now with a year of sobriety, but it took solving the shelter problem (Oxford House program) before she could make any progress on the addiction and mental health issues.
I moved twice to get permanent teaching positions. In Greeley, rentals (particularly with dogs) are scarce and high, inflated because of the oil and gas workers, there is no low income housing, and the shelters are full. I stayed in motels, but was luckily able to borrow from family until I could put together a deposit and rent.
So probably not what you expected from a middle aged teacher with sensible shoes. But yes, I do have some real-world experiences with the spectrum of issues associated with homelessness. I like Utah's approach to the homeless problem: GIVE THEM HOMES.
Yes, there are addicts and cheats and opportunists among the homeless. But to classify all homeless as undeserving liars who "choose to be homeless" is not anyone's reality.
Winner didn't say that "all homeless as undeserving liars who choose to be homeless," if your quote is correct. She said some. You will note an implied reference to your "Utah situation" in my commentary. I will rest my case regarding people making personal decisions that don't turn out well. I'm glad to hear your daughter has cleaned up. So, conclusion is that we both have some hands-on experience in dealing with the homeless issue.
The border wall will never be built. $20 million was already appropriated from Department of Homeland Security to build the prototypes. Video from CNN:
Senator Susan Collins will never get what she was promised (funding of CSRs and reinsurance to hold down premiums for consumers using the ACA) in exchange for her "Yes vote" on the GOP #taxscam bill. Maine voters will continue to disrespect her. Will they remember her betrayal when her term is up in 2020? Perhaps.
Will they remember her betrayal when her term is up in 2020? Perhaps.
Probably not. Remember, these are same good people who put Paul LePage in office for two terms.
I do think that Collins was a bit delusional in thinking that she will get her CFR payments. Or knew it and used the chimerical promise made by McConnell as a fig leaf for demonstrating that her vote was not given easily.
Collins is, in Scott Nearing's searing phrase, a pacifist between wars and a vegetarian between meals. Ohh, and a moderate between votes.
If she runs again.
Remember, though – Maine elected LePage twice because of the third party challenge of Elliot Cutler splitting the vote.
That's right. And how did that happen?
Well, in the fine tradition of Ralph Nader and Jill Stein, some Democrats were so tormented by the thought of having to decide between Al Gore and Shrub, or more recently between HRC and Two Scoops, that they decided it was better to remain pure and vote for the third party option.
John McCain will either resign or die in office, resulting in a special election in Arizona to fill his seat. Possibly this is a chance for not one but TWO Democrats to pick up Senate seats.
FYI, I believe that – assuming McCain lasts in to the new year – Arizona law calls for the special election to be held during the regular election. This means both of Arizona's Senate seats would be up in November.
I'm pretty sure Democrats can field two strong candidates; I'm also fairly certain at least one of the two Republicans will be a radical winger.
(I'd love to have made the contrary prediction: that McCain beats the odds and lasts at least through 2018. But given his recent absence, I don't think it's going to happen.)
The Dimocrats will prove again how stoopid they are as a political organization.
1. Will not simplify message to 3 positive bullet points, but will have a 147 paragraphs position paper.
2. Will keep allowing old people (Sanders, Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, Clinton(s)) to appear as spokesmodels.
I'm not sure what to call our strategy through 2017… It's certainly not a 3 bullet point position. It's not quite Roy Rodgers' contention, either: it's not exactly "no organized party".
What we've seen this year might be very effective at least through 2018: let each candidate run on their own district-relevant issues and provide logistical support in GOTV, registration, and small-donor funding. Oh – and find someone to run in as many races as possible. That was wildly successful in Virginia and in special elections elsewhere throughout the nation in 2017.
2020 will be coming soon enough, and we'll have to be able to hang our hats on something comprehensible assuming the country doesn't implode by then.
I think you meant Will Rogers… but agree with your thoughts. All politics is local, so a one-size-fits-all message (other than perhaps “resist”) is not necessarily required
Him, too.
Didn't Roy Rogers invent the Trigger warning?