April 23, 2009 04:11 AM UTC

'Hotline' ranks Markey's seat as 11th 'most likely to switch party control'

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• by: BobMoore

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Tim Sahd of the National Journal’s “Hotline” puts Colorado’s 4th Congressional District at No. 11 on his list of 15 House districts “most likely to switch party control in 2010.”

Sahd includes the requisite caveat, “This list is likely to change, and some names may fall out completely by the time ’10 rolls around.” With that in mind, here’s his take on the 4th and its Democratic incumbent, Betsy Markey:

“Markey is running in a marginally Republican district (McCain took 50 percent here), and she won’t have the fortune of running against predecessor Marilyn Musgrave (R) again. It appears Republicans are champing at the bit to challenge her, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero is already in the race, and state Rep. Cory Gardner and former Fort Collins City Council member Diggs Brown — among others — are considering it. The GOP could win if the district reverts to its GOP-loving ways: President Bush took 57 percent in 2000 and 58 percent in 2004, and ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) never had much difficulty hanging on to this seat. But Musgrave was never able to shake her negative image, and the affable Markey won in a walk. Will a fresh face give the GOP its mojo back here?”

On my Coloradoan blog, I point out that Sahd reflects the national conventional wisdom on the 4th CD race, but misses a couple potentially crucial points. More details here:

http://tr.im/jtet

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