March 10, 2014 12:15 PM UTC

Cory Gardner Polls Similar to Randy Baumgardner in Senate Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

New polling data on Colorado's U.S. Senate race was made available today by the right-leaning firm Rasmussen Reports, and the results are telling in their sameness compared to previous polls. Rasmussen now keeps Toplines and Crosstabs behind a paywall, so we don't know the answer to the question that we've always found more telling than anything ("very favorable" vs. "very unfavorable" ratings). But in a head-to-head matchup, here's how Rasmussen sees it right now:

Mark Udall: 42%
Cory Gardner: 41%
Other: 5%
Undecided: 13%

Astute readers might recall that these numbers are not all that different from the last public poll in this race: The Quinnipiac University poll in early February. Here's how Quinnipiac shook out the numbers one month ago on the question of theoretical head-to-head matchups:

Mark Udall: 45%
Ken Buck: 42%

Mark Udall: 43%
Randy Baumgardner: 41%

Mark Udall: 44%
Owen Hill: 39%

Mark Udall: 43%
Amy Stephens: 41%

As we've discussed in this space before, we have a hard time seeing how Gardner is going to be able to move to the middle and raise his low name ID in time to defeat Udall in November (assuming, of course, that Owen Hill does not win the GOP Primary). Gardner may be a better U.S. Senate candidate for Republicans because of his fundraising ability, but he's not an election-changing candidate in and of himself.

Baumgardner's 41% in the Quinnipiac poll last month was essentially an example of how a "generic Republican" might fare in a head-to-head matchup with Udall. One month later, the GOP's beacon of hope (Gardner, in case you were getting confused) is polling no better than a guy known only for his outlandish moustache. If the polls are correct, Gardner is no different than any other "generic Republican" choice at this point in the election cycle. If that's still a "game changer," maybe we're talking about different games.