February 10, 2026 01:32 PM UTC

Big Line 2026 Updates: Statewide Races

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• by: Colorado Pols

“The Big Line” at Colorado Pols has been in existence since we first opened our digital doors in December 2004. From day one “The Big Line” has been the most reliable indicator of the outcome of major political races in Colorado, which is why it remains one of our most popular pages today.

[For site performance reasons, we’ve had to make some adjustments to the slides that long appeared in the header above. You can still click on the image to access the page at any time.]

While we regularly update “The Big Line,” we don’t tend to call attention to any changes unless there are more significant shifts required. Now that we know the full picture of campaign fundraising numbers from 2025, some significant shifts have indeed taken place. We’ll explain the changes for statewide races below and touch on congressional battles in a separate post.

Remember, the percentages listed in “The Big Line” reflect our estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado and are not intended to gauge the final margin of victory in a given race. The listed odds may not add up to 100 until after the Primary Election as we try to estimate the outcomes of two separate elections. 

 

U.S. Senate

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)

(D) Julie Gonzales (20%)↓

(R) Janak Joshi (10%)

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)

Supporters of Democratic State Senator Julie Gonzales can, and will, argue about perceived policy differences with incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper. It is much more difficult to make a case that Gonzales has any real chance of defeating Hickenlooper for the Democratic nomination in 2026. No Democratic Senate candidate in the country raised less money than Gonzales in the last quarter of 2025, which makes it awfully hard to dent what is the most well-known political name in Colorado. Perhaps Gonzales could have mounted a stronger challenge to Hickenlooper had she not waited until December 2025 to launch her campaign; as it is, she simply doesn’t have enough time before the June Primary Election — particularly given that she is spending most of her days in the state legislature until early May.

Republicans have no chance here.

 

Governor

(D) Michael Bennet (50%)

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)

(R) Victor Marx (20%)↑

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (20%)↓

(R) Joe Oltmann (5%)

(R) Scott Bottoms (5%)

(I) Greg Lopez (5%)

(R) Jason Mikesell (1%)↓

Senator Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser are both raising enormous sums of money for their respective campaigns, so resources aren’t likely to be the deciding factor in the June Primary Election. Bennet has better name ID, but Weiser is in better position as the anti-Trump candidate. As of today, this looks like a toss-up.

On the Republican side, Victor Marx is a vapid weirdo…but that’s really what Colorado Republicans want in 2026. Marx had a strong fundraising quarter to close out 2025, while State Sen. “Both Ways” Barb Kirkmeyer was treading water (Kirkmeyer raised $193k but spent more than half of that amount). The excitement here is all about June, since neither Marx nor Kirkmeyer have a chance in hell of winning in November. Joe Oltmann could rise up the list for the GOP Primary if he can raise money (he entered the race after the last fundraising quarter). State Rep. Scott “There is No” Bottoms claims to be the frontrunner here, but frontrunners don’t have to rely on barfing out ridiculous claims of pedophilia rings in state government in a desperate attempt to generate interest. Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell raised all of $6k in the last three months of 2025.

Greg Lopez is now an “Independent” candidate. Unfortunately for him, he’s still Greg Lopez.

 

Attorney General

(D) Jena Griswold (50%)

(D) Hetal Doshi (30%)↑

(D) Michael Dougherty (20%)↓

(D) David Seligman (15%)↓

(R) Michael Allen (20%)

It’s hard to see a path to the Democratic nomination for anybody other than Secretary of State Jena Griswold, who combines strong name ID with a warchest that now exceeds $1 million. Attorney Hetal Doshi has $565k in the bank, which gives her a chance. Both Boulder County DA Michael Dougherty and attorney David Seligman have hit a wall on the fundraising front; the best hope for either candidate is that only one of them makes the Primary ballot.

As for El Paso County DA Michael Allen…well, he seems to be alive and breathing.

 

Secretary of State

(D) Jessie Danielson (50%)↑

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (20%)↓

(R) Somebody? (10%)↓

This race has felt like it was over for a long time now, but the vibes aren’t matching the numbers just yet because State Sen. Jessie Danielson’s fundraising dropped off after a strong initial quarter. Amanda Gonzales, the Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder, hasn’t been able to generate any momentum despite having the field to herself for the first half of 2025.

Republicans will probably find some poor sap willing to put their name on the ballot here. Maybe.

 

State Treasurer

(D) Jeff Bridges (60%)↑

(D) Brianna Titone (20%)↓

(R) Kevin Grantham (20%)↓

(D) Jerry DiTullio (10%)↓

(D) John Mikos (10%)↓

This race looks all but over after State Rep. Brianna Titone raised just $15k in the last three months of 2025 but spent $30k. State Sen. Jeff Bridges has $270k in the bank and is the only candidate in the race who will have the resources for a serious campaign. Jerry DiTullio and John Mikos are just playing out the string.

On the Republican front, we expected more signs of life from former Senate President Kevin Grantham, who ended 2025 with all of $7k in the bank.