December 27, 2021 11:19 AM UTC

Top Ten Stories of 2021 #10: CD-8, Mother of All Battlegrounds

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• by: Colorado Pols

Last April, as the Colorado Sun’s Jesse Paul reported, Colorado was awarded as a result of population growth in the past decade an eighth seat in Congress–Western census winners along with Oregon, Montana, and Texas, while California, Illinois, and New York each gave up seats:

Colorado’s population jumped to 5,773,714, last year from 5,029,196 in 2010, a 14.8% increase. The nation’s population grew by 7.4% during that span to more than 330 million. America’s growth rate was its slowest since the 1930s.

Colorado is among six states that are gaining one or more congressional seats. Seven states will lose seats, including New York, which was 89 people away from keeping the seat.

The question of how and where to draw this new congressional seat was resolved by Colorado’s brand-new independent congressional redistricting commission. Of all the proposals for where to locate this new district, the historically underrepresented north Denver metro area was the early preference for Democrats. The new map approved by the Colorado Supreme Court is anchored by the northern Denver suburb of Thornton in the south and Greeley at the north end of the district. This district was drawn, much like CD-7 was originally in the 2000 redistricting cycle, to be tightly competitive based on past electoral performance. The extent to which this new district could defy easy prediction is best illustrated by this mindbending reality: voters in the new CD-8 supported both Michael Bennet and Donald Trump in 2016 by similarly narrow margins.

For the inaugural CD-8 race in 2022 both parties have energetic primaries shaping up, although the Republican field is attracting by far the most attention. Weld County Commissioner Lori Saine is the easy choice in this primary for the MAGA faithful as a Lauren Boebert-style firebreather years before Boebert made it cool. Meanwhile, the GOP’s corporate/consultant class is effectively split between Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer of Weld County and Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann. State Sen. Kevin Priola was once considered a possible contender for this seat as well, but strong opposition from fiscal conservatives appears to have iced him out.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Yadira Caraveo has a path to winning the nomination, with challenger Adams County commissioner Chaz Tedesco working his labor connections and winning his share of endorsements. The winner of the Democratic primary will have the crucial task of winning over the district’s large Latino population as well as blue-collar working families who are receptive to core Democratic economic arguments but also based on past results swingable. In the long term, much like the rest of Denver’s suburbs represented by CDs 6 and 7 have matured into Democratic strongholds, there’s every reason to believe that this district will become similarly less competitive over time.

Faced with that inevitability, it’s Republicans who have much more to lose in this inaugural contest.