Coffman Poll Shows CD-6 Race Basically Over

Wow!

I thought this race would be alot closer. Coffman has run a great campaign. My one concern was money. However, looks like he has no problems there. Congressman Coffman, has a nice ring to it.  

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by: samsnead @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:19:54 PM UTC

I wonder what Ward thinks about these #'s

If he gets 4% of the vote in August does he win?  

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by: kylee @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:22:56 PM UTC

Armstrong is closer to Ward than Coffman?

Hard to believe. With a large staff and all the money the Armstrong campaign has been spending, I thought this one would be alot closer.  

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by: fathawk @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:25:38 PM UTC

any chance Lauri Clapp (or whoever is running in SD 26) will step aside and let Ward run for his state Senate seat?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:25:59 PM UTC

She might but

Ward is too arrogant to get out. He would rather give up his seat and finish 4th place than get out of the race now. His career in politics was short-lived. I did get a kick out of the helicopter commercial though.  

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by: jimmypilgrim @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:31:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice how they inlcuded the actual margin of error

Unlike the Crank campaign, which claimed there was no margin of error. Although I was surprised by the results, the Tarrance group is well respected and I don't doubt them.

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by: Randy R @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:40:06 PM UTC

Agreed on the analysis

This is a poll typical of a state legislative race, and while I'm not fond of the 5.8% MOE, Tarrance is a reliable firm.  The numbers should be at least strongly suggestive of the current state of the race.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:49:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

so with that MOE.....

   Ward may be as high as 9.8% and as low as -1.8%?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:56:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, pretty much

Kind of like the current level of support Republicans have in the black community.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:59:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Remember margin of error

applies to all numbers, I.E., you could add 5.8 to Armstrong And subtract 5.8 from Mike (though there is only a 1 in 20 chance of that being right.)  Do that and...still blowout city, Coffman 41, Armstrong 25. MO
E also refers only to sampling error, not mistakes in the way you interview, etc.
But make all the adjustments you want, and this is a huge huge margin for Mike.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:56:13 PM UTC

You almost had me...

MOE doesn't mean much for anyone except for Harvey and Ward in this poll.  In a race between third and last, there's definitely a contest - have at it, you two!

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:58:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tarrance has been a respected polling firm for 30 years

I don't doubt these numbers.  Tarrance has been a respected polling firm nationally for thirty years.  SOS Kaufman's numbers shouldn't surprise anyone.  He has campaigned hard in the area of the 6th CD for years and is well liked.

You can bet that Armstrong has done a poll within the last two months.  The press should ask him for the results. The deomgraphics of Armstrong's name ID would be very interesting.  If he is known primarily by older voters (45+), it may be an indication that those who know the name are remembering his very popular father, U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong.  If that is true, he has a long way to go and probably not enough time and money to get there.  

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by: Republican 36 @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 17:58:42 PM UTC

They have never been wrong

in a Republican primary race in Colorado. This is devastating news for all of the other candidates and Colorado voters. It's over.
Thanks Mike for using the war and deaths of our soldiers to get elected to office and then betray the people who got you there by stabbing us in the back and allowing Bill Ritter to fill your spot with Romanoff or Gordon, all while screwing up our elections office! Good work! You'd fit in great with Musgrave and Lamborn in Congress!  

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by: 5 minutes alone @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 21:12:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow, that is an interesting set of logic you have there

By serving in Iraq (did you serve by any chance?) he "used" the war to move his candidacy along.

He is betraying you by running for an election where the majority of people clearly want him. So I guess they want him to betray them in the back?

Then he is stabbing you in the back by setting it up for Ritter to appoint Romanoff. But you also say Mike screwed up the elections office. So it's stabbing you in the back that he will enable Ritter to appoint someone competent as SoS?

Do you find your mind to be a bit convoluted??

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 22:03:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democrats are only competent enough

to allow illegal aliens, union thugs, or anybody with a pre-paid cell phone recipt to vote as many times as they want to, while "losing" or "not counting" overseas absentee ballots from the real troops fighting to keep us safe...who also happen to mostly be Republicans.

I'll take even the worst Republicans in office over these dems any day.  

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by: 5 minutes alone @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 23:02:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And the worst Republicans is what you have been electing...

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 00:22:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Way Bill Armstrong Allows this to happen

Bill Armstrong will form a 527 Committee and put up as much money as necessary to make sure that Wil with one L wins. Bill Armstrong is not going to be embarassed by his son.  

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by: ColoradoPolitical @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 18:23:41 PM UTC

Too late

I'm sure this won't be the first time. Think back to his mortgage business days and bankrupt companies. By the way, who spells Will with one l?

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by: Joe Dirte @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 18:31:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There was a central City character named Bil Bel

I asked him why he spelled it that way and he said he was "conserving Ls."

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by: bob ewegen @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 18:40:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ha

Funny. lol.  

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by: Joe Dirte @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 18:46:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

great line

We will see how strong Coffman is after a million dollars or more of negative ads paid for by Mr. Republican Bill Armstrong.  Coffman has raised an impressive amount of money but cannot compete with the deep pockets of the Armstrong family.  

Bill Amstrong is not going to allow his son to tarnish his legacy of domination in Colorado Republican politics.

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by: ColoradoPolitical @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 19:12:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Coffman is a known quantity

It's going to be hard to tarnish Coffman's image with negative ads.  He is a veteran of both Desert Storm and the War in Iraq, is genuinely liked by voters, has won three statewide elections, and has a substantial amount of support in the polls and in money.  Negative attacks, traced back to the Armstrong campaign, could have a serious backlash on Wil's first political foray.  

Nobody is perfect and nobody needs to be.

H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

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by: DrewKerin @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 20:28:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And after Bill Armstrong gets his son elected...

...he will walk on water.

Give it a rest - people have influence but no one controls how the election will go.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 22:04:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stout #'s for Coffman

He got off to a bumpy start but has run a near flawless campaign since January. Still I am surprised at this huge margin.

Does anyone know any numbers on the 2nd CD?

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by: MichaelScott @ Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 22:08:54 PM UTC

polls vs. the citizens of cd-6

Since everybody on this web site is giving coffman the cornation treatment. Let look at the facts, polls are like people you have all colors, shapes and sizes. When a company is commissioned by a particular candidate the poll questions are slanted to favor that candidates positions, therefore, the polling data is slanted to make the candidate appear attractive. When August 12 comes the citizens of cd-6 will vote on the issues and not on name ID. The citizens of cd-6 is smarter than you think, so before the cornation celebration gets out of hand, let the citizens of cd-6 make their decisions without being influenced by career politicians who will do any means necessary to get elected or a polling company to put out slanted information. Wil Armstrong speaks about the issue and concerns of the citizens of cd-6, it's time for a positive change and that is what the Armstrong campaign is all about putting the best interest of the citizens first and standing on the core principals in which the party of lincoln was founded on by bringing about a fresh approach of solving issues and not the same old tired failed approach that career politican have made popular in today's Congress.

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by: oklahoma09 @ Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:55:20 AM UTC

That's good, Wil

Now go back to campaigning.  It's only another couple of months, then you can go back to your regular job.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:12:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Armstrong for US Congress

Remember the story the hare and the turtle who won that race? It may appear by the polling company that is influence by a career politician is running away with the race to try to intimadate the voters of cd-6. But in the end, the voters of cd-6 will make the right choice with their hearts and pocketbooks for a new approach to changing the sad situation in Congress. How can anyone trust someone who has run for an office every 2 years and was incompentant in each one. Most people are nervous about the SCORE program for the upcoming general election, do you think the citizens of cd-6 will trust coffman to lead the district when he fails to provide the leadership in the offices he previously held. Sounds like a coffeman supporter throwing darts in the dark.

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by: oklahoma09 @ Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 22:53:03 PM UTC

sounds like a coffeman supporter

Wil, you can at least spell your opponent's name correctly. You should understand the pain of having your name misspelled all these years.

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 23:05:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Armstrong for US Congress

I may have misspelled coffman, but the message of Wil speaking about how to fix the environment in Congress and not to continue the failed policies of career politican in Congress, is not misspelled.  

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by: oklahoma09 @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 02:22:01 AM UTC

You're right, Wil

Your spelling is impeccable this time. But I'm not sure how the offspring of Colorado's Mr. Conservative, who spent nearly 20 years in Congress, is the guy to accomplish that.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 05:16:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fix Congress?

How is A.R.M.strong going to fix congress? I hope it's not the same way he fixed the mortgage industry in Colorado. This is a guy who as the head of the a major mortgage lending lobbying group fought all regulation, even self regulation, that has put Colorado in the top 10 states when it comes to foreclosures. I don't know about you but that's not the type of leadership I want in Congress.  

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by: CR GOP @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 16:18:26 PM UTC

Committee for Coffman to Stay as SOS

just what we need another career politician for the taxpayers of cd-6. Coffman needs to stay and complete his term obligations, the promise he made when he ran for SOS 2 years ago, and put the citizens of the great state of colorado first, instead of last.

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by: oklahoma09 @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 19:24:46 PM UTC

another career politician for the taxpayers of cd-6

Is Wil repudiating his father's honorable service as a career politician for the taxpayers, first of the 5th CD and later for the entire state? Now that would be news.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 20:40:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Deer-In-The-Headlights

Must be another "deer-in-the-headlights" coffman supporter this time with blinders on with limited vision and no sense of history. Wil's Father provided the best leadership and guidance this state has ever seen in during his term in Congress. Enough said. Now back to the campaign the Armstrong campaign once again speaks about the number one concern of the citizens of cd-6 the economy and not about a resume. Mike promise 2yrs. ago to fullfill the obligations to serve out the term of SOS, whe he got elected. How can you trust this guy, when it comes to committment? I forgot he running for Congress now. In addition, the citizens of cd-6 will not allow a polling company to influence them when it comes time to vote on August 12.

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by: oklahoma09 @ Wed Jun 04, 2008 at 22:07:29 PM UTC

'Nuf Said

How much is Wil paying you to post these ramblings? The budget can't afford a spell or grammar check?

You must not read anything on this site except your own bloviating, otherwise you'd know I don't have a dog in this race. But if "coffman supporter" is your standard insult for a 6th-District voter with questions, I can see why your campaign is polling so poorly.

Wil's Father is still providing guidance. His father, on the other hand, served honorably, but it was for more than one term, as you suggest. He served three terms in the House and two terms in the Senate. If you need help with the arithmetic, that's 18 years. That's a career politician in anyone's book. Yet your primary attack on Coffman seems to be that he's "a career politician," unlike Bill Armstrong's boy. Either there's something wrong with Bill Armstrong, or your attack is disingenuous.

You make the correct point that Wil wants to campaign without reference to his resume. Why is that?

Then you type:

Mike promise 2yrs. ago to fullfill the obligations to serve out the term of SOS, whe he got elected.

I'm serious, Wil either needs to hire someone who can type or you need to be more careful hitting the keyboard with your elbows.

Oh, and the poll? It's not influencing voters, just fundraisers and volunteers.  

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 00:16:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

School Teacher

Red, you must be a schools teacher
since your point is about my grammar. coffman must have offered you a job, if he gets elected, because you rebuke everything that not coffman. Go Armstrong!!

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by: oklahoma09 @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 01:40:35 AM UTC

Nope, just someone who can speak and write English

But if all you get out of that post is the point about your grammar, Wil's in worse trouble than the poll suggests. You're not really that dumb, are you?

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 04:35:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]