Coffman Touts Huge Lead in Own Poll

What they forgot to mention

is that the survey was of Coffman's immediate family. The cainine response was critical to his high numbers.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 22:58:00 PM UTC

Push Pull

As I posted last week.  The entire poll done by Terrance Group was a push pull poll.
Would you vote for a vet as opposed to a mortgage broker?
Let's see what major media outlet publishes his crap.  

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by: guesswho @ Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 23:20:54 PM UTC

Coffman will win in a walk

M.C. will outwork the field and the voters know and like him. Armstrong will raise or have the most $$$, his family has the money and connections to support his campaign. Harvey has nothing to lose he is mid term I think. I am surprised at Wards low number, unless he has mega $$$ I don't see him as competitive.

Does anyone have any numbers on the 2nd CD I am interested is Joan has this type of lead over Jared or vice versa.

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by: WashParkPoet @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:28:49 AM UTC

Coffman bad for Dems

As a new Dem in CD 6, I just moved from CD 7, I hate to see Coffman doing so well. I truly believe with either Harvey or Armstrong we Dems might have a chance at this district after re-districting in 2010 but not with Coffman. I really thought Armstrong would be tougher competition. But if the press release is accurate and the question was as stated, I can't see how anybody overcomes that 34 point margin with only 37 undecided. Is it realistic to think any one candidate will get 34 of the 37 percent undecided? Coffman may come across as a more moderate conservative, but if you look at his record he is clearly just as conservative as Harvey or Armstrong.  Oh and who is Steve Ward?  

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by: CD6 Dem @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:47:16 AM UTC

Nah, he's the best we can hope for

Look, I'm a CD6 Democrat myself, but after seeing how Joanna Conti with a terrific campaign and solid moderate backing - including from the biggest employer in CD6 - did no better than the radical leftist two years earlier, we have to realize this district is a lock for the Republicans. Better to have a somewhat moderate Republican like Coffman than an utter disaster Tancredo-lover like Ted Harvey. Go Coffman!

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 05:15:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And not to forget...

....Conti is incredibly good looking!  Either the CD 6 Pubs are immune to hormones, which the general electorate doesn't seem to be, or they are blind.

Or stupid.

Or both.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 14:55:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry CD6 Dem

but the facts of life are CD6 is such a safe R district it doesn't get targeted by the Dem party and any warm R can win here in a walk.  That will only change after some Dem does well enough to make the party take a second look and target the next time.  At this point, only Joe Rice (HD38 state Rep.) would have a good chance and he's not ready to run for congress yet.

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by: BlueCat @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 20:05:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fundraising numbers

One other thing, has anybody heard what Harvey, Armstrong, or Ward (the guy polling at 1%) raised? Coffman keeps touting having raised over $200K but I'm sure Armstrong, with all his father's connections and his own personal ties to the mortgage industry, will easily be able to beat that. Harvey may not have as much money but as a sitting state senator I'm sure he'll be competitive at around $100K or so.....wouldn't you think?  If Coffman is really at $200,000 plus, and has the huge lead in the polls already, it will be critical for Harvey to have at least that much.  Does anybody know if Bill Winter would run again?  

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by: CD6 Dem @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:57:48 AM UTC

This race was over before it even began

I would be shocked if Ted Harvey had over $100,000. He may have some political connections but obviously not many if this poll is correct. I think money will prevent him from even being a realistic threat. As for Armstrong, sure he will have his daddy's money but who really wants to send a mortgage lender with no political experience to D.C. I think Bill Winter would get a larger percentage of the vote than these two combined. I wish he would run. As for Coffman, sure he has got some bad publicity as of late. But if one takes a closer I think you would see that many people are threatened by the most credible Republican candidate in the state. I think name id and experience will be the winner in this race. Not to mention with all the big spenders in Washington and the shape of our economy, I think a true fiscal conservative may even do us some good.    

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by: bigmomma @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:19:56 AM UTC

Wil Armstrong has it in the bag

Mortgage lenders right now have such a sterling reputation for great financial management and helping our booming economy that once people hear his job, it's in the bag.

Seriously he's toast. All Mike Coffman has to do is keep calling him a mortgage lender and he's dead.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:42:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Politcally-Savvy?

I would have to disagree. Our people here in CD-6 are some of the most highly educated and intelligent people in our state. If you look at the average family income in each congressional district you will see this is the case.  

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by: bigmomma @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:45:17 AM UTC

That doesnt mean CD-6 is savvy

And I live here.

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by: Mr. Toodles @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:25:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is there method in this madness?

Do you suppose voters are so desperate to get him out of the SOS that they figure the best way is to exile him to Washington where he can't do any damage?

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by: Shiloh @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:16:04 AM UTC

Coffman had to come out with a positive for himself

because he doesn't have the support coming into caucus on Feb. 5th and he knows it. My guess is that Coffman is counting what he has going into caucus and numbers are falling short. Coffman will bypass the assembly and petition on because he doesn't think he can get the 30% to make the ballot.  He could get the required percentage to petition on but he knows that that would be too big of a negative going forward to the primary. Coffman has never had to organize on his own since he has always rode the coat tails of others and Sean Tonner/Phaseline sure isn't known for their caucus level skills.

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Ted Harvey. This size of race fits his campaign style and will work in his favor.  Yes he does have a lot of contacts, but more importantly he has friends that can get out supporters to the caucus.

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by: bull08 @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:49:24 AM UTC

Not sure why

the negative attitude toward Mike Coffman here.  He's a strong candidate, and whatever the accuracy of this poll, he'll do well.  His term as Secretary of State hasn't been nearly so disastrous as it's made out to be here.  I imagine among ordinary people who care about election integrity, he won some popularity over the whole thing.

"Apple denies that, based on their common meaning, the words 'app store' together denote a store for apps"
-- Legal filing by Apple Computer

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by: cdsmith @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:51:32 AM UTC

Don't diss my district!

I grew up in Littleton, went to Arapahoe High School, and had to put up with Tancredo as my Congressman for years and years and years.  As wacky as the guy is, I think it's unfair to characterize my home town as turning a "blind eye" to his political beliefs.

This may contradict those "Colorado's turning blue" theorists, but the people in CO06 by and large agree with Tom.  They didn't turn a blind eye to anything.  Thinking they did will only lead to a dangerously inaccurate picture of Colorado's voting public, and the people of CO06 in particular.

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by: Jeff Bridges @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 05:03:23 AM UTC

Very good point

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 05:14:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My take

Is that Coffman is using this poll to set up a feeling of inevitablity going into Feb 5th, and that in the long run it would boost his overall numbers.

Personally, I don't buy into the theory that Coffman has been a "disaster" as Secretary of State.

But even if he is and election day turns out to be a major piece of crap, it's going to be too late one way or another.  Coffman's fate or future is going to be decided before we know for sure whether he ran decent elections

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by: Haners @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:21:12 AM UTC

Take a look at Mike Collins

I encourage all of you to take a look at Mike Collins who is so far the only Democrat in the race.

I am working with him and believe he is the right person for the job.

I am most impressed by his motivation.  He is a man who wants to restore the true function of the Congress; representing the people of his district, not the corporations and lobbyists that control D.C.

He needs all the help he can get but I truly believe he has a chance due to the mental state of the country, the mistrust of the GOP, his message and the fact that Tancredo is not on the ballot.

Walking door to door in 'o6 I found many Democrats who were voting a solid democrat ticket with the exception of Tancredo.  Now that he is gone (thank you, thank you, THANK YOU) we will regain these votes as well as the Independents and Republicans who are disgusted with the GOP.

All of the Republicans are weak and their message of more war, more test based funding in schools and more of the same with healthcare can be beaten.  

Hope to see you all on the campaign trail.

Check Mike out at www.collinsforcolorado.com

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by: gouko787 @ Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 16:31:28 PM UTC