August 23, 2012 07:15 AM UTC

Don't Shoot The Messenger: CU Study Predicts Romney Win

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• by: nancycronk

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

A new University of Colorado study produced a model that would have correctly predicted every Presidential election since 1980, and it predicts that Willard “Mitt” Romney will be the 45th President of the United States. The study, done by Political Science Professors Michael Berry from CU Denver and Ken Bickers from CU Boulder, uses different indicators than most other models. Instead of looking at one measurement of economic health for each state, it looks at two — per capita income, as well as that state’s unemployment number. According to the model, every battleground state will go to Romney, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado, making the grand total Romney 320 to Obama 218.

The model also correctly predicted what happened in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote, and George W. Bush won the electoral college.

It is unclear from their press release whether the model included the many recent Republican “War On Women” gaffes, or considers the huge influx of money into the GOP campaigns post-Citizens United. It also does not state if it takes into account Koch brothers’ PACS buying up most of the air time on television.

Thoughts?

My own anecdotal evidence from knocking on doors tells me there seems to be a sizable number of independents and unaffiliateds who seem less enthusiastic about the President than they were four years ago. They claim to be “disappointed” but when asked about specific reasons why, have very little to say (it has crossed my mind more than once that Obama’s PR team may have been more policy wonks than great marketers these past four years).

There also seems to be greater complacency among political activists who supported Obama four years ago. With the number of Republican gaffes and Tea Party members of Congress horror stories, are many Obama supporters so sure of a win for the Dems they have yet to put in any real effort to make it happen?