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Obama Leads Romney in Colorado

by: c rork

Wed Aug 10, 2011 at 16:01:33 PM MDT


PPP recently polled Coloradans on the presidential race and on the budget crisis. It looks as if President Obama is enjoying a healthy lead over front-runner Mitt Romney:

While the president has gotten less popular, so has Romney, and by a similar amount. Six months ago, voters were split on Romney personally, 40% favorable and 40% unfavorable.  That has now slipped to 30-51.  Thus, Obama's advantage over Romney has not faltered.  He led 47-41 half a year ago, and 48-41 now.

Since, as almost everywhere, the president is still more popular than any of the
Republicans, he leads the rest of the slate by even larger margins than he does Romney. Obama tops Bachmann, 51-39; Perry, 51-38; Cain, 51-35; and Palin, 54-38. Despite falling with independents, the president still leads by two to 19 points with them, because they like all the Republicans even less. All of these candidates except Romney perform worse than John McCain did in a similar turnout environment to 2008.Poll respondents report having voted for Obama by nine points, his actual victory margin.  

"Colorado and Virginia are two states where President Obama seems to be holding his ground right now," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "They may be the ones that get him to 270 electoral votes next year. (Rork Emphasis)

In addition to losing head-to-head match-ups with President Obama, the GOP is taking the lion's share of blame for debt crisis and the resulting deal:

When it comes to the blame game among voters displeased with the compromise 33% in Colorado fault Congressional Republicans more to 23% for Obama and in North Carolina 35% say the GOP is more at fault to 21% who lay it more on the President.

As Pols has said time and again, the GOP can't put up a "generic candidate" against Obama. Every time he is facing an actual opponent, he comes out on top. To boot, congressional Republicans will be facing a voting public that places most of the blame for the debt deal debacle on them.
c rork :: Obama Leads Romney in Colorado
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Obama Leads Romney in Colorado | 60 comments
Public's Notoriously Short Memory
While the typical voter tends to have a fairly short memory (and attention-span), the GOP will probably keep the bad press coming all the way to 2012.

With the upcoming budget battle, renewed FAA funding fight and the Federal gasoline tax expiration all coming up, the GOP will provide many, many chances for the public to remember who is pushing us back into a recession, keeping unemployment high, and our infrastructure crumbling.

"It may be true that the law can't change the heart, but it can restrain the heartless" -- Martin Luther King, Jr.

If Republicans want to promote their real leaders
they would run the Koch brothers or Grover Norquist.  Then the public would have a real choice between the president and the people who call the shots for Republicans.

Yeah, and George Soros or Warren Buffet could kick their asses! n/t


Sometimes, I guess, you have to let the inner bitch out.

[ Parent ]
+1000....aw shucks....I'm all in
There's an education problem in this  country, and it's not in the public schools, it's in the public square....the commons.

One question to be asked is, "When will the American voter begin to vote their own interests, and build the path forward based on what is best for them?"

Exercise your right to peaceably assemble and reclaim the commons. Stop the militarization of America.

[ Parent ]
Can we please get real here?
Since I'm sick of elbee posting this on every poll, I'm going to go ahead and post it for him:

PPP grossly oversampled Dems in this poll

Here are the results of their robopoll, which surveyed 510 Colorado voters. Since it's a robopoll, they can't necessarily be faulted for the result, it's just whoever ended up picking up the phone and pushing buttons. I would be interested in seeing their target universe, though.

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other.......................................... 26%

Here's another telling question:

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 41%
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8%

Currently the voter registration numbers are about 1/3 Dems, 1/3 GOP, and 1/3 Indies. Among active voters, the GOP has about a 5 point advantage over the Dems, but it's really the total registered that matters.

I won't go so far as to say that PPP (which is a Democratic polling firm, and noted so in the PDF. It also pointed out that Nate Silver said their polls tend to lean towards Republicans, though it's hard to say that claim can be substantiated given these results) did this on purpose. However, I do not think that this should be taken as a very accurate picture of the electorate.

There are a few things we can glean from the results:

1.) Democrats, however dissatisfied they might be with the President, are still planning on voting for him in 2012.

2.) Independents that were surveyed are grossly dissatisfied with the job the President is doing.

3.) Obama still got a 50% disapproval rating in this poll, despite clobbering the competition.

No matter how you look at it, it's going to be a rough road forward for the President. Is the Republican field tough? No. But that might not matter if the GOP does a better job of GOTV than the Dems, who have their work cut out for them.

Oh hey!
That poll called me!

It asked a bunch of other weird stuff, too, like if prostitution should be legal. And it just hung up on me eventually--no "thanks for playing."

There once was a speaker named Frank
Asked to vote his conscience, he drew a blank
Bet it all to kill just one bill
Now, here's the word on the Hill:
This fall, Dems have the House in the tank.

[ Parent ]
I'm shocked, I tell you!!!
PPP oversampling Dems?  Surely not!

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Pardon my ignorance, but don't they correct for the registration bias in the final tally?


bin Laden is dead
GM is alive
[ Parent ]
Interesting question
As far as I can tell, no. If they did, they would probably mention that. Although PPP isn't as transparent in their methodology as, say, RBI Strategies, so I guess it's possible. I doubt it though.

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to rain on C Rork's parade. I wish that reality matched this poll, but I look at polls objectively, and this one seems more like a Democratic wet dream than a true metric.

[ Parent ]
Very good points


No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.
[ Parent ]
It was my impression
that they did automatic corrections for registration bias. BUT, since it is my post, I will put in the leg work of putting in a call/email to PPP this morning asking if they do.

[ Parent ]
Even if they did
They still oversampled Obama v. McCain.

I'm still not convinced they weighted anything, because that would mean that they weighted the responses to every question except for party ID.

It would be nice if they had weighted it, because then we could tell Colorado Peak Politics to suck it.

[ Parent ]
My mistake
Obama won by 8.95%, and they have a +9 Obama favor from people who say they voted in 2008. I stand corrected on that criticism.
[ Parent ]
Could it be...?
Could it be that self-reported party affiliation has shifted since 2008? An awful lot of unaffiliateds are/were disgruntled Republicans. Maybe they're back on board?  

bin Laden is dead
GM is alive
[ Parent ]
Not bloody likely
Look at the crosstabs on the Indies. Obama's at a 56% disapproval rating with them, and it's a -18 pt spread. That's brutal.

The question wasn't "Do you consider yourself..." it said "If you're D, press 1, if you're R, press 2" While it's possible that they just found 9% of Indies who self-identify as Ds, that's highly unlikely.

Even if that's what happened, it doesn't reflect the electorate as it's currently constituted.

[ Parent ]
Brutally awesome n/t


You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
"It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you're the smartest person in the room"


bin Laden is dead
GM is alive
[ Parent ]
?
Not me.  I'm just commenting on RSB's statement.

As my dad would say, 'It doesn't take a dee-gree' to figure out that Obama's in huge trouble.

Look at how completely incompetent he's looked the last two or three weeks.

When you've lost MoDo....

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
And don't you dare
rain on my wet dream parade.
[ Parent ]
In any case
Where is 'tad wih a Rasmussen showing how, when you compare this to that and the other number, Obama actually trails Romney in Colorado by a gazillion percent?
[ Parent ]
Look at the Indies.
If you want a good read on what's going to happen.

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Hold your horses, elbee
Did YOU look at Indies?

Obama v. Backman

Indies: Obama - 50% Bachman - 36%

Obama v. Cain

Indies: Obama - 50% Cain - 31%

Obama v. Palin

Indies: Obama - 51% Palin - 34%

Obama v. Perry

Indies: Obama - 48% Perry - 36%

Obama v. Romney

Indies: Obama - 42% Romney - 40%

So even though they overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Obama is doing, they still see him as the lesser of two evils in any of the matchups polled. Romney is the only one who stands a chance with them, and even then it's a statistical tie.

[ Parent ]
Naaaaahhh.
Hypothetical doesn't matter right now.  Look at President Obama's job approval among indies.

I don't even start paying attention until Ron Paul and his douchebag truther idiot supporters have moved back into the basement.

The election is going to be about the economy, and I cannot imagine a scenario where it improves markedly.  

Dems would be much better off concentrating on the House and the Senate.  And on reading Hayek and Friedman.  Hehe.

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so sure
The GOP field is weaker than the Dem field in 2004, and look what happened there. Bush's disapproval numbers were just as high with independents much closer to the election, and he still won because Kerry sucked as a candidate. It doesn't matter how shitty of a job people think the President is doing if the opposition party runs a truly awful candidate to compete with him.

If I were you, I would start doing everything I could to make sure Romney is the nominee, because he's the only one who is even remotely competitive.

[ Parent ]
Perry?
Christie as a VP for either Romney or Perry is going to be formidable.

Can you imagine a VP debate between Biden and Christie?


You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
If they hold it in New Jersey
People will throw tomatoes at Christie.

This is serious, you commie dolt  --davebarnes, 2012.
[ Parent ]
Well...
At least they can afford to buy those tomatoes now, thanks to Christie.

B'Dump - CH!

Thank you, thank you!

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Perry?
Are you joking?  If he ever got the nomination there would be wall to wall ads featuring every daffy thing he ever said or that the crazy ass pastors he chose to stand with at his Christian only "American" Prayer "response" ever said. And there's an endless supply of those on ad ready video. He'd be a dream candidate... for Dems. And that's not counting threatening secession.

Also, as I said before, in today's world no obese asthmatic is ever going to be elected President or be part of a successful ticket. Especially one who committed the cardinal sin of standing up for Muslim Americans. Christie probably couldn't get through the rigors of a national campaign without being hospitalized. Can you picture Christie having a sweat pouring attack while debating Biden?

[ Parent ]
One 50-gallon drum of Oxycontin
(Rush pioneered the off-label use for slimming) and a surprise come from behind victory on "America's Biggest Loser: Special Edition - Politicos" . . . and, presto!  Formidable opponent.

Don't believe everything you think.
"Hes been stomping on him own dick." -- a leading conservative sage
[ Parent ]
Write in Rick PArry
Not their Rick Perry, our Rick Parry, with an 'A' for America, with an 'A' for Iowa...



"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

[ Parent ]
Saw that
This is indeed an interesting experiment in superpacs; a superpac for a fictional character created as a parody.  Where will it all end up?
[ Parent ]
Perry has the most upside besides Romney
Obama only beats him with indies by 12 points head to head.  :)  Seriously, though, I know a lot of people who think he'll be the nominee in 2012. I just don't think he has that ability to trounce Obama like Romney does.

But he's still on the same level with Palin and Bachmann as far as being extremely conservative. In this poll, Independents gave him a 41% unfavorable rating to only an 18% favorable. 41% said they didn't know, so he has plenty of room to work with as far as creating a more favorable opinion of himself.

He does have the fact that he's not a Mormon going for him, which will probably give him the edge against Romney in the primary, but if you're looking at a better general election candidate, Romney is more palatable to Independents and moderates.

I think what it comes down to is there is an "anybody but Obama" mindset among Republicans, just like there was the "anybody but Bush" mentality among Democrats in 2004. But with independents, there's not that kind of galvanizing look at the matchups of who they'll vote for, because they don't hate Obama--they just think he's a shitty President. But they'll take him over someone they think will be even shittier.

[ Parent ]
TP the wild card
They don't behave like other interest groups.  Essentially outside the usual political common wisdom which presupposes that people will pill together in the face of a common enemy they hate enough.  But some TPers hate the GOP establishment almost as much. They could either force an unelectable candidate or go third party in Perot like numbers. On today's tight electoral scoreboard, it wouldn't even take a percentage as high as what Perot got when his candidacy elected Bill Clinton.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think that will happen
The Tea Party truly despises Obama. They likely wouldn't exist were it not for his candidacy and administration.

I agree that they're erratic and unpredictable, but they've already influenced the field so much by their mere presence. There's really only one candidate in this poll that they don't like, and he's already done a great deal of pandering to them. I think in the end they'll support the Republican, but it wouldn't surprise me too much if they decided to pull a Palin and go rogue.

[ Parent ]
I did say one or the other.
Forcing a candidate too extreme to win a general just as good as going third party. They certainly forced Boehner to go with a more extreme plan than he wanted.  Also Tea Party isn't a party.  We're really talking about a collection of various hard to predict Tea Party types and how they will behave in primaries. Some of those types really don't care about politics and will go for their ideal.
[ Parent ]
They will undoubtedly go for their ideal
But I think there are far more rank and file Republicans than Tea Partiers. Just because the field of candidates has been formed due to, and will be pandering towards, the Tea Party, doesn't mean the Tea Party represents the most powerful voting bloc in the Republican primaries.

The disorganization you alluded to in the Tea Party is not nearly so in the Republicans. If they get their GOTV act together, they can be extremely competitive. But you're right that they do exert an inordinate amount of power for how many of them make up the Republican primary voters.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't necessarilly take a lot to affect today's generally pretty close elections
That's all I'm saying.  
[ Parent ]
I can imagine it
the candidates agree on rules. So, Biden insists that each green room has to have ham and potato salad. Christie never emerges thinking he has already won
[ Parent ]
I think the numbers will be a lot worse for Obama in a year
Why? Because the economy is going to tank further and Obama will continue to do nothing about jobs. After another year of 17% actual unemployment (probably increased to 22%), people are going to vote "anyone else" because they know Obama won't try to fix things while Romney might.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.
"they know Obama won't try to fix things while Romney might"
That's a step too far. Romney's whole agenda will be: (a) cut taxes; (b) repeal the health law; (c) eliminate natural resources and labor regulations; (d) defund any federal agencies doing anything progressive (EPA, NLRB, DOJ civil rights, EEOC...); and (e) appoint heinous judges that will rule for business every time.

To say that Romney might "try to fix things", you'd really have to believe the problem with our economy is high taxes, high regs, and too many legal victories for progressive causes.

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

[ Parent ]
They "know" Romney will try to fix things?
Seriously, Dave? What on earth would lead to anybody "knowing" that?  
[ Parent ]
Jebus told 'em, . . .
or Rush, . . . or Fox news, . . . or somebody who they know is knowy.

Don't believe everything you think.
"Hes been stomping on him own dick." -- a leading conservative sage
[ Parent ]
I didn't think Rush or Fox
were all that big on Romney.  And we all know Jesus is supporting Perry, at least according to  the pastors he invited to his American (meaning Christian only, the rest of us being chopped liver) prayer day.
[ Parent ]
I read somewhere today
that the whole purpose of the prayer day was to highlight the fact Perry is not Mormon.  If that is the case that is pretty slick of Perry.

I admire Romney's intelligence. I really do. I just question his honesty like a lot of others.

Don't know much about Perry, yet.

" I will always put Colorado families before the Washington special interests"

Cory Gardner (R-O&G)

[ Parent ]
You know that and I know that
But for the low information voters in the middle, the ones that decide who wins, I don't think they know that.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.
[ Parent ]
I don't think those voters much like Romney
You're describing TPers.
[ Parent ]
They don't
Among people who ID as "very conservative" in this poll, Romney is one of the only Rs who actually has a higher unfavorable than favorable.

Such is the tightrope walk that awaits the GOP candidates in 2012: they have to appeal to the Tea Party voters who are likely to turn out in droves to vote in the caucuses and primaries, but they also have to appeal to moderates and independents in the general who are starting to really turn on the Tea Party.

[ Parent ]
Just what is it that Obama should do about jobs
when he has a hostile GOP-controlled House and a Senate minority dead certain to filibuster anything he proposes?

Just what should he do?

Sometimes, I guess, you have to let the inner bitch out.

[ Parent ]
Water under the bridge
If Obama and the Dem leadership had  started out with jobs as their top priority and using every strong at arm tactic in the book on the Blue Dogs the way the GOP has always successfully brought their few  "moderates" to heel from the get go back when Dems had the trifecta, including a 60 strong senate caucus, they wouldn't be in the weak, please just take my lunch money and don't hurt me, position they're in now.

When you start off every negotiation by going three quarters of the way from the center to your opponents side and then give up more from there and fail to get your own troops in line time after time,  what do you expect the outcome to be? Why do you think Indies abandoned the Dems they had just elected in droves in 2010?  It wasn't entirely because times had gotten worse but also because the performance of the Dems they had elected in 2006 and 2008 was so pathetic.  

Bullies feed on weakness and the public despises it. As they should.  Good intentions coupled with impotence aren't of much practical value.  Obama and the Dems didn't get to this place overnight or through anybody's fault but their own. Lousy messaging.  Lousy discipline.  Lousy  negotiating.  

After the Bin Laden triumph they had a fresh chance with the public and should have learned something.  They didn't.  They just  pissed away all that political capital and  here we are.  This hole wasn't dug in a day.

[ Parent ]
Just what should he do?
Well, he certainly shouldn't wring his hands and do nothing.

Put a jobs bill out there and let the House GOP kill it and the Senate GOP filibuster it.

At least he'd look like he has a plan.

Right now it doesn't even look like he has a clue.

This is serious, you commie dolt  --davebarnes, 2012.

[ Parent ]
Yep
And spend every minute using the bully pulpit to talk about what is needed and why. FDR didn't win every battle, but he clearly was fighting for the jobless every day.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.
[ Parent ]
Thank God...
Hitler and Hirohito came along to help him with that employment.

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Actually the economy was improving under his programs even before we entered the war. the only time it slid was when he caved to conservatives
and cut the spending. But you're right, the war pro ovided instant hyped up stimulus.  Wars are the very epitome of massive government stimulus spending.

At least they used to be.  Unfortunately Bush's wars didn't do a thing for the economy except tank it as they were not only the first wars ever fought without raising taxes to pay for them but taxes were actually cut, the war was off the books and entirely charged to our progeny. The only people who benefited were war profiteers.

Thanks for pointing out how successful stimulus spending was back in the day.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, well...
They used to raise taxes to pay for wars, too.

bin Laden is dead
GM is alive
[ Parent ]
as they were not only the first wars ever fought without raising taxes...

[ Parent ]
Or as economists phrased it
Forced massive stimulus spending.

No trees were destroyed in the posting of this comment. But a large number of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.
[ Parent ]
Announce he's not running again.
I'm being totally serious.  

You can't get rid of poverty by giving people money.
-P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Pfft
If you surveyed a Democrat Party meeting of course you're going to find that Obama beats the Republican candidates, but that doesn't make it a representative survey of Colorado opinion.

Executive Director of Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen, confirmed via an email to the Peak that they did not attempt to have their sample reflect actual voter registration.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.co...

"This was a dumb, dumb move by the Dems" - Aristotle

the Peak is weak
they sure called Rollie Heaths' education initiative dead on, didn't they ?  Regular fucking Nostradomi over there.

" I will always put Colorado families before the Washington special interests"

Cory Gardner (R-O&G)
[ Parent ]
It's not the Ds that you have to worry about
Obama beats the Republican candidates with the Indies too. And that has nothing to do with statewide party registration numbers.

I agree with Peak that the toplines are probably flawed, but the crosstabs have a ton of useful information in them. Care to add anything to the discussion other than "Pfft" and repeating what I already said yesterday?

[ Parent ]
Obama Leads Romney in Colorado | 60 comments
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