Perlmutter TV Ads Start Tomorrow

Here come the shills

Look out below!

Seriously, Perlmutter has a lot of work to do in order to get his credibility and favorability back to NEUTRAL, much less have any hope of winning. He really should withdraw, but his Big Oil masters have sunk too much money into him to let him quit now.

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by: Last bastion of logic @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 16:44:23 PM UTC

credibility

Last Bastion,

If the Perlmutter camp felt they were losing, they would not have held back for so long with their television ads. They had them filmed a while ago, and they could have easily run them before the absentee ballots went out.

If the Lamm camp felt Peggy was winning, they would not have endangered their name recognition edge by putting Perlmutter's name and picture all over their mailings and press releases. They would have kept Ed's recognition low while trying to run up Peggy's positives. Instead, like you, they took the tactic of trying to run up Ed's negatives. That is very much a come from behind strategy, and you know it.

The Rubenstein camp is running a campaign that actually looks optimistic. For a while I heard a lot of, "we have a real chance to win this," which is always a bad sign this late in the game, but that has tapered off. I am not betting that they are going to win, nor am I going to say that they can't, but they are running like they think they will.

Different people might have different opinions on how this is going to play out, but I think Ed's and Peggy's opinions of where they stand today are pretty easy to discern from the campaigns they are running, and it paints a pretty good picture for Perlmutter.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:06:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here we go...

Almost on cue, the shills pop up and damage Perlmutter's credibility even further.

Yes, we all know Ed is far ahead, despite the fact that all available polling indicates he is way behind. That Ed "Truth Team" stuff is getting a little old.

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by: Last bastion of logic @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:14:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Credibility

Lost Bastion,

  I think that you probably know enough about the race to know about Peggy's oil investments, and that Ed was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters, and yet you try to spin and hope that the ColoradoPols community is less informed than you are, and yet you repeat a smear against a good candidate with a strong environmental record.

Call me what you want to, but I think everyone here knows how my credibility stands next to yours. Which of us is the 'shill' will be seen in a month. I wonder who you will be a cheerleader for then?

By the way, I am from Lakewood. Are you even from the seventh district? If so, then I would love to get together and talk politics at Drinking Liberally tonight. If not, then I know already who is the shill.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:45:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still going, I see...

You're certainly entitled to your opinion about Ed's "strong" record.

As for your credibility compared to mine, that's not really the issue. The issue is your credibility compared to Channel 9 and Roll Call. If their research indicates Ed is failing and you, an anonymous poster, indicates Ed is flying, who would you believe.

No, I don't live in CD-7. In fact, I'm a conservative so I probably wouldn't enjoy "Drinking Liberally." I'm not a cheerleader for anyone but I will call out a candidate who's full of %#@#!, and Perlmutter fits that description.

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by: Last bastion of logic @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:02:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Come from behind strategy?

How do you come from behind when you are ahead?  Every poll shows that.  When the Broncos are up 32-14, is Plummer leading them to a "come from behind victory"?  At this point, who knows what Ed's camp is doing.  It's been in dissaray for the last couple of weeks.  Lamm has been in the media a lot lately (Hillary event, Michael Schiavo coming into town for her...).

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what is right with America"

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by: EZMak19 @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:21:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seriously

How many polls have shown Ed in the lead?  The answer is zero, because every poll shows Peggy leading this race.  Ed's commercial is going to be great.  "Peggy is not Dottie Lamm, by the way...Stephen Stills is coming!!!"

That will seal the deal...

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by: Jeffrey @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:44:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Polls

The only polls I have seen are name recognition.

Are there any that have looked at the head to head matchups?

I know there was the caucus straw poll that Ed won with 80%, and I know there was that BTC online poll that Herb did well in and Peggy came in last. Neither of those were at all scientific, of course.

Celinda Lake had a poll done months ago for someone on one of the statewide initiatives that also asked questions to about 80 people in CD-7. I hear that one was favorible to Lamm, but I am skeptical about the sample size.

I heard from the Progress Now folks that their online poll showed Ed way ahead, but I haven't seen the actual numbers and that one was also not a scientific sample of the district.

Peggy's poll back in Feb. had good name recognition numbers, but I hated the internals and it was a bit of a push-poll. It asked about recognition first, and then asked afterwards if the respondent would change their answers if they knew that Peggy was not Dottie. Even in that silly format, they increased the name confusion by implying that Peggy and her ex-husband's brother's wife were still related.

The best poll I have seen yet was the Survey USA poll. It was fairly recent, had a reasonable sample, and had Peggy at a 24% favorability rating.

24% put her ahead of the other names in the race, as far as favorability, but it still is a pretty small number, and the sample does not necessarily reflect the voters who will get out into a primary or how they will vote in a match up.

Those are the facts that I know. I don;t think the polls have really shown much of anything.

You guys can post your spin onto a website all you want, but I am not sure what good you are really doing at this point for any of the candidates. You aren't going to be fooling anyone who is well informed at this point, and the TV ads are going to now be reaching more of the uninformed than you will find on a Colorado Political website.

I would be happy to support Ed, Peggy, or Herb no matter which of them wins the primary, but I not only can honestly say that I think Perlmutter still has a good lead, but I also suspect that anyone who would say that Ed is so far behind that he should drop out is either seriously deluded, or not really speaking in good faith.

I am putting money on the latter, and so I suspect that more garbage will be shouted at me. I trust the community here to see the qualitative difference between what I am saying and what you guys are trying to get them to swallow.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:10:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Take a look...

at the open thread.

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what is right with America"

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by: EZMak19 @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:14:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the heads up

Judging from the 24% that is the Survey USA poll again.

My read of that story is they just did matchups of Peggy v. Rick and Ed v. Rick, which makes it pretty obvious that it wasn't about the primary at all, and that the sample included Republicans, unaffiliated, and third party members.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:26:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not

The poll is done by Lake Research Partners, like it says, not SurveyUSA, which was the 9News poll.

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what is right with America"

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by: EZMak19 @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:30:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right you are

You are correct.

Still has the same limitations as a predictor for the priamry though, don't you agree?

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:44:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It shows me...

that the Democrats start in a hole agaisnt ROD if Perlmutter wins.  If Peggy wins, the Democrats are ahead against ROD.  Which would you rather have?

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what is right with America"

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by: EZMak19 @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:58:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Brainer...

That's a no brainer.  I'll take the lead...

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by: Jeffrey @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 22:37:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Catchin Up

Ed's got a lot of catching up to do.  With every poll showing Ed down, and down big, those commercials better say something more than Peggy is not Dottie Lamm.

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what is right with America"

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by: EZMak19 @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 16:47:41 PM UTC

<sigh>.........FINALLY..........

  So Every Way Ed is finally taking to the airwaves! It's been the political campaign equivalent of "Waiting for Goudeau."  I assume E.W.E. will start off with an intro to the John Ferugia report followed by a broadcast of the Ferugia report itself and capped off w/ a summary rap-up of the Ferugia report. Is there anything more?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:28:26 PM UTC

:^)

hee hee... that would be "Waiting for Godot". 

But I digress.

So when's the right time for any candidate to start with media ads for an August primary?  April? 

Does Peggy 'Where Do I Live?' Lamm even HAVE enough money for TV & radio spots?  And when will she run them?  July 31?

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by: ISeeABadMoonRising @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 17:42:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just a guess...

But judging from the largely positive way the Perlmutter campaign has been running, I would predict that the commercials will focus on Perlmutter and HIS ideas rather than attacking anyone else. He has plenty to stand on without wasting his campaign dollars on attacks at this point. 527s of course are another issue, and the General election I'm sure will warrant some more down-and-dirty campaign tactics, but knowing Ed I think he'll want to start off with a positive message.

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by: w0nderm0nkey @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:16:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's about time.

Well I think it's safe to say that Ed really needs to get himself going if he wants to even come close to winning this race.  I think he should just withdraw... current polls show him hopeless right now. ;)

And if Ed wanted a good way to get himself 'back in this race' ... he probably should have considered a better method of doing that, instead of creating his first Ad (something that Herb Rubenstein did before both candidates a couple of weeks ago).

Come on, Ed, give it up already.

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by: Keeley @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:05:59 PM UTC

Give it up?

Keely,

  I take it you were not among the many contributors in this district that helped Ed raise over $1,000,000 so far.

  Maybe you should talk to them about Ed dropping out. Obviously they are merely encouraging him with their behavior.

  Just curious, how much do you think the three candidates will have raised from cash contributions this last quarter from people within the Seventh District?

  Given the way you feel support is divided amongst the candidates, what do you think the numbers will look like?
  Big lead for Peggy? Big lead for Herb? Big lead for Ed?

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:20:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dear TakeBackTheHouse

Firstly, thanks for responding.  I'm glad someone cares enough about this race as much as I do.

The problem isn't that Ed isn't able to raise money, it's just that he has not putting it to good use. We all know that he is by far the most wealthy in the campaign. The fact of the matter is that we are so late into the campaign before the primary that trying to make a quick upsurge is rather going to hurt him rather than help him, in my opinion.

With regards to the numbers, I think that Peggy is in fact in the lead, though I don't think she should be.  I wish that the voters of CD7 would come together and realize that she isn't the right candidate for us.  My vote would go to Herb Rubenstein or even Ed Perlmutter.

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by: Keeley @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:26:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That would suprise me

Last quarter, I think the number of Dems in the 7th who contributed to Peggy were in the single digits. She had a couple of Republicans donate as well, but even with them she was barely ahead of Herb at raising cash here.

I really don't know what infrastructure Peggy and Herb have in place, but last I checked Herb seemed to be doing better at gathering unpaid volunteers to walk the district with him, and Peggy was hiring her field people off of craigslist.
  Herb's people seem passionate about him, but his HQ is still vacant for most of the week. Ed's has been a hive of activity filled with staff, volunteers, and interns. He obviously has home field advantage.
  I haven't been to Peggy's place. Is it still her adopted residence/Headquarters that they showed on the news?
  I haven't been there or over to O'Donnell's yet. It would be fun to stop by at Rick's and see what he has going.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:42:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Peggy's Ad

By the way, has anyone seen Peggy Lamm's Ad/video?  It is the longest, most unproductive ad yet.  I think she ought to condense it or actually step out of the norm and try something that would attract the every day voter's attention, as opposed to bore them like crazy.  Any ideas on this?

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by: Keeley @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 18:07:43 PM UTC

Not bad, actually

The one on the website? It's just a web video, not a commercial and chances are the every day voter isn't visiting any candidate's website. If they're watching the video on her site, chances are they already have an interest in what she has to say. For that reason, I think it's actually a pretty good introduction to who she is and what she's about. It's definitely easier to watch a 2 minute video than read hundred page policy positions on a website...

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by: auroragirl @ Thu Jul 13, 2006 at 16:34:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Herb's Ad Is Great

Herb Rubenstein has increased his ad buy significantly.
This is a three way race. The commercial is great. Check it out at herbforcongress.com. This ad is strong powerful and sends a clear message that voters are responding to.

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by: Something Is Brewing @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 20:45:46 PM UTC

If Peggy Is Ahead Why Is She Attacking Ed

If Peggy is so far ahead why has she sent out yet another piece of mail attacking Ed? Just curious.

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by: Something Is Brewing @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 20:48:10 PM UTC

This is getting tiresome

Available polling data shows Perlmutter behind. Either post better data or stand down.

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by: Last bastion of logic @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 21:10:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

just curious

If Peggy is ahead why is she attacking?
I have seen no head to head polls showing anyone ahead of anyone else for the Democatic nomination.
Favorable ratings
Peggy versus O'Donnell who cares? All that is relevant is
Head to Head
Lamm
Perlmutter
Rubenstein
who has real numbers? Ed and most tellingly Peggy have polled in the past two weeks. Shortly after Peggy's poll her attacks began. Just curious why?

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by: Something Is Brewing @ Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 21:30:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ROFL

"Available" polling data...

That's rich.  As previously pointed out, the 'polling data' is several months old, (one from FEBRUARY) which was focused more on an issue (vs. a candidate).  And the May poll is based on favorability ratings, which have little to do with how people may vote.

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by: ISeeABadMoonRising @ Thu Jul 13, 2006 at 02:15:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

give us head to head poll results

Ed Perlmutter did a poll
Peggy Lamm did a poll
Both Lamm and Perlmutter did polls within the past two weeks
What were the results of those polls?
Who cares about a favorable/unfavorable who cares how you will do against O'Donnel
Head to head -- show me a poll that has Rubenstein / Perlmutter and Lamm and tell me who is ahead who is behind.
Quit playing games let's see some real numbers not some Celinda Lake poll done for some union six months ago
Come on Ed come on Peggy release your real poll numbers and quit parsing

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by: Something Is Brewing @ Thu Jul 13, 2006 at 03:41:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]