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Big Line Updated

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 17:51:34 PM MDT


We've updated The Big Line after some admitted confusion over how we would list Tom Tancredo's new Party affiliation. This is the first time we can remember that we've ever listed an American Constitution Party candidate on the line.

Tancredo's entry into the Governor's race may have another unintended consequence beyond all but ensuring that Democrat John Hickenlooper is elected Governor. American Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden should get a small boost in CD-4 because of all of the press that Tancredo's new party will receive, and in a close November race, that boost could be a killer for Republican Cory Gardner's bid to knock off Democrat Betsy Markey.

We've also upped the odds for Republican Jane Norton in her bid to win the GOP nomination for Senate over Ken Buck. While Buck remains the frontrunner, he keeps screwing up just enough, while Norton adds some high-profile endorsements, that this race is tightening by the day.
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Big Line Updated | 84 comments
Assuredly,
.
this IS the first time that you've ever listed an American Constitution Party candidate on the line.  One of the community members would have noted such an occasion with boisterousness and glee.
.  
Yes a proud moment for the ACP
Having Tom Tancredo as your candidate. Maybe you can get David Duke to run as your Senate candidate and then you can really pop the champagne.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
Maybe Romanoff 3.0 will take the job
After he loses the primary.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
You're making an assumption there...
I think the primary will be very very close.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
I didn't say whether it will be close or not.
Make up your own assumptions.  Don't make up mine.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
You are assuming Romanoff will lose, no?
I think he could very well win.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
Possibly
And then he'll go on to lose the general.  No question.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
He just spent his litteral last cent. Noble cause to some a fool's errand to others.
[ Parent ]
Romanoff vs Buck
Both would start off with empty bank accounts. I'm not too worried about Romanoff getting the money he needs if he wins the primary. Having Bennet's balance would be better, but the money will be there.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
from where?

[ Parent ]
MAD, do you really think that the Dem powers that be would want
to hand that seat to the Republicans?  
[ Parent ]
Well- if you mean local, D activists with assets - ok, maybe
But AR said he wouldn't take DSCC money.
He won't take SEIU money.
He won't take AFL-CIO money.

He has apparently relaxed his rejection of out of state donors, since President Clinton hit up his nationwide list.

[ Parent ]
Well, as you know, there is a difference between what funds the
Romanoff campaign will accept, and what would be done by outside groups on behalf of THE Democratic candidate for US Senate.
[ Parent ]
If they decide Romanoff's chances are next to none
which they probably would in the unlikely event that he wins the primary, then of course they'll put the money toward saving a seat with a better chance.  But few think it's going to come to that. Bennet wil have no funding problems. And Clinton, having shown his loyalty, no harm no foul, to the DLC Clintonite loser, will be happy to rejoin the rest of the party establishment in supporting Bennet instead.
[ Parent ]
Blue, Romanoff polls better against the Repub candidates than Bennet does.

[ Parent ]
According to whom, Rasmussen?
and by how much?  And how material is that at this pount unless it's by a  big lead? As far as that goes, McInnis and Hick are in a statistical margin of error poll tie.  So you think that means McInnis has an even shot?  I doubt this particular debate will extend past 8/10.
[ Parent ]
The problem with relying on outside groups
is that they, not you, control the message.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
@Ralphie message control
Are you suggesting that outside groups won't get excited about the "outside money bad" theme?

C'mon, it's all for the bigger good. Or the good of something or someone.

[ Parent ]
The real question is, will the Dem establishment at the state and national level
abandon this race, if Bennet does not win?  I don't think so - Romanoff has stated repeatedly that he will support Bennet if Bennet wins.  But where are Bennet and his followers on this?  Again, does anyone really believe that the winner of the Dem Primary should not be fully supported?  If anyone does, they're so misguided they really don't belong in the big-tent Democratic Party.
[ Parent ]
I've stated repeatedly
that I will enthusiastically support the Democratic candidate for the US senate, whoever it turns out to be. I'm pretty sure a lot of other Bennet supporters have said the same.

We're all in this story together: Let's make sure that we write it well.
http://www.steveharveyforcolor...
[ Parent ]
I will support AR too
...if he wins the primary.  But I don't have enough money to make him viable.  To my bitter regret.
[ Parent ]
Why wouldn't they support Romanoff?
Just because he has had a bee in his bonnet about Bennet or said unkind things and had no message that anyone can remember other than "Money Bad".

It would be nice to see this person with a lot of experience in the legislative process come out with some amazing policy ideas but the next best thing would be for him to not knee capp Bennet to the point that Snortin Norton or Buck Buck get to add Senator to their name prefix.

Romanoff would be fine as a senator but like McInnis, he seems to be one of those people who have high aspirations that never quite work out.

[ Parent ]
is that "bank balance" or mental balance ?"

[ Parent ]
I'll check w/ Mr. Duke.
.
got his email handy ?
.
[ Parent ]
Nice... n/t


AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."
[ Parent ]
I want to see the over/under on Tancredo
n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
I just don't see Romanoff being so far down
His supporters are on the street corners.  You see more Romanoff yard signs to Bennet's.  The weird part is you don't see any recent polling on either Senate match up.  It's like the polling was frozen a month ago and everyone is suppose to take it on faith that last months poll is still relevant today.  It doesn't make sense to me.
Someone has to pay for those polls we have not had
Bennet does not want a poll because it might show him trailing the "house seller".
And, Andrew has no money for polling.
[ Parent ]
No, Bennet knows Romanoff can't poll
So the last thing you want to do in that scenario is release your own internals, which might give your opponent something to go on. Releasing internal polling numbers is an odd strategy anyway, but which seems to be popular this year, among Repubs anyway. I would never do it under (almost) any circumstance.

More importantly, the reason you know that internal polling shows Bennet leading comfortably is the fact that he has responded to AR's attack ads so mildly, and hasn't increased his buy or put in any of his own money. Nor has he arranged for any surrogate attacks on Romanoff's record. In fact he hasn't really attacked AR at all, just responded to AR's stuff with standard "I'm above this, why is Andrew going negative?" responses that invariably come from campaigns that know they're way ahead.

 

[ Parent ]
Agree, no way Romanoff is 25:1 while Bennet is 5:1...
... because while I think Bennet is likely to beat Romanoff in the primary, I think nobody really knows who will turn out to vote. So I can't say Bennet is THAT much of an overwhelming favorite. And as much as Romanoff had money probs in the primary, that was mainly a result of the White House and state party leaders shutting AR out of the big donor loop; if AR wins the primary, I have to think his odds are as good as Bennet's.

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."
[ Parent ]
I would put Bennet and Romanoff even for the primary
Because there is so much uncertainty. I would not be surprised to see either win by a couple of points.

I'd also put Buck first, he's doing better than either Dem in the polls. I think the Senate is going to be very bad for incumbents in November because of the job picture. And for Dems in general.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

[ Parent ]
yeah, that sounds about right...
... if you held a gun to my head and made me guess who will win, I'd bet on Bennet, if just because the broad-based mail voting could expand the electorate beyond party activists. But I really don't know.

And yeah, if I had to guess who our next Senator is, I'd have to guess Buck, if just because it's looking to be a good R year due to the economy. To swim against the tide, the D has to be super or the R has to be disastrous (as in the Gov race); I don't know that either Bennet or Romanoff is that super, and I don't know that Buck will be disastrous (though his recent gaff-prone campaigning says maybe).

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

[ Parent ]
Still Bennet's to lose David
Ken Buck might have hit his high water mark and the chaos in the governors race will be even more pronounced down ticket if insurgents like Maes or Buck win over conventional republicans.

To say that all incumbents will get beat up on election day omits the obvious gaffs and extremism by Republicans that seem to be making daily headlines.

[ Parent ]
It all depends on voter turnout for Romanoff: Yo Willis
Instead of paying Merida, he should find out a legal way to get those mail-in ballots mailed or delivered to the Election Division.

So this is my question for Dan Willis (who truly deserves some kind of recognition for his unfailing accurate contributions)  

Can candidates give stamps to citizens to cover the cost of mailing in the ballot?

 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT

[ Parent ]
no

[ Parent ]
This Thank You is to MADCO
Busy thread, so it might have gotten lost.

 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT
[ Parent ]
While 25:1 to 5:1 does seem a bit exterme
it makes little difference. So Romanoff's chances ought to be expressed in somewhat different  terms.  The results will be the same.  AR is finished on Aug 10th. Dave will have to rejoin the real world. We'll be happy to welcome you back, Dave.
[ Parent ]
or extreme, anyway

[ Parent ]
Remember one thing about the odds
They are about the chances at winning the GENERAL election, not the Primary. We have Romanoff low because we think he's a long shot to win the Primary, and if he did, he's not in a good financial position to compete in the General. On the other hand, Buck and Norton have a better chance at winning the GOP Primary than Romanoff has at winning the Dem Primary, so there is less of a hurdle for them in winning the General.
[ Parent ]
Even so
a taste extreme, I think. But as I agree that there isn't going to be a Senator Romanoff being sworn in any time soon, it's no biggie.  Still don't get you're being so optimistic on Garnett. Think he has a legit shot and hope he wins but an advantage?
[ Parent ]
No, that's about right
You all are I think committing the first and most common mistake of political junkies: Assuming everyone else knows the same things you know. I'm a political junkie myself (duh, why else would I be here), and follow all the statewide races pretty closely. Hell, I even know Andrew Romanoff a bit, in the sense of having heard him speak innumerable times and having had quite lengthy conversations with him. And yet I know almost nothing about him. Nothing about who he is. I know he has chosen to fund his campaign differently than Bennet (no PAC's), which no non-political junky cares two cents about. I know he did a few important things as Speaker (not all to his credit, imo, but some). But I know a LOT about Michael Bennet, just from having watched TV this past month or two. Andrew's a tireless campaigner (so is Michael) but there's a rather low limit to the number of people you can reach retail: The physical limit of 24 hours in a day, and the political reality that the same people come to virtually all political events, and they're not even really persuadable. They dominate caucuses, but primaries, not so much.

There's a reason why no primary candidate has won a prominent office in this state while being outspent on TV since ... well, since I can't even come up with the last one. A huge majority of the folks who turn out on primary day will know almost nothing about Andrew Romanoff, except perhaps that he doesn't take "special interest money" and used to be in government. They certainly won't know why they should fire Bennet.

Bennet 55-45 is the highest AR can get; a ten point loss would be a great day. Not because AR's necessarily lost the argument, but because he never really entered an argument (other than the silly PAC thing, the shiniest fool's gold in politics, which has never won anyone anything). If he wins, it will be the biggest shock in my 20 years following politics. Bar none.

[ Parent ]
Great points, BoulderDem
We try to adjust the Line based on those factors -- how candidates are appealing to voters overall, and particularly the uninformed voters. In the case of Romanoff vs. Bennet, we just don't see anything to indicate that Romanoff has advanced beyond the "active Democrats" stage.  
[ Parent ]
he has a bus, for the restavus

[ Parent ]
All true about TV but...
The Internet is changing that a lot. It used to be TV was it. Now for a lot of people, they go to Google to learn. That doesn't eliminate the impact of TV, but it does lessen it.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
Maybe You'll Learn Something
You've been truly delusional about Romanoff, David.  I have hope that you, unlike certain others on this site, will actually learn something about how wrong you've been on this primary.  

Michael Bennet will beat Romanoff by at least 10 points.  Unfortunately, I've had only one taker of my open invitation to bet on the outcome (jpsandsci for $25).  Do you want to step up?  Anyone else??

Regardless, I also believe that, like my client who supports Romanoff but really likes Bennet after he got a chance to talk to him, you'll also realize what a great senator we have in Michael Bennet.

ITLDUSO  
Honk hello when you see my license plate!

[ Parent ]
I think we have a decent Senator in Bennet
I just wish his world view included the possibility that the banks need some of the regulation they are totally opposed to.

I also wish his campaign staff wasn't a bunch of entitled dicks. But I felt that way back when I supported him too, so that's not a key issue for me.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

[ Parent ]
Honk & Waves and Yard Signs?
Sort an "underpants gnomes" theory of victory there, don't ya think?  
[ Parent ]
Look- that's bs
Yard signs don't vote (usually) and honk & waves don't do anything.

But underpants gnomes are nothing to make light of.

[ Parent ]
North Denver.mythology:...yard signs are always predictable...
That is why they get stolen all the time.  Anyone from Tom Tancredo's home know what the yard sign count is???

 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT
[ Parent ]
Honk and waves serve a very important purpose
They keep the candidate out of headquarters and give him/her something to do.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
I think honk & wave helps a lot
But I grew up in Hawaii where it's a key part of campaigning.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
say it with me
YARD
SIGNS
DON'T
VOTE

Give more, give everything, give blood.
[ Parent ]
Say it with me
TV
ADS
DON'T
VOTE

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
You do know
You're starting to sound irrational, Dave, don't you?
[ Parent ]
I miss the old David.


For the truth is a terrible thing.
[ Parent ]
Sarcasm people, sarcasm
I don't know if yard signs have much impact, but saying they don't vote isn't terribly useful.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
Well forgive us for jumping to wrong conclusion
When you spend months sounding like Pollyanna this is what happens. And we all knew what was meant by yard signs don't vote.
[ Parent ]
I can say...
... as someone who gets most of his tips here first, that yard signs are usually the way I first hear of candidates in local elections. Near me, I've seen a sign for someone who's first name is Titus. I can't remember the last name, but I'll drive by it again and voila! Name recognition achieved in one potential voter.

Now, at the moment I don't know what this person is running for, and since the sign is by a bus stop that happens to be at the Denver / Englewood line, it may not be for a race in which I can vote. But it seems to be doing its job.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

[ Parent ]
Phooey! As always The Big line is wayyy offf.
Your bias is showing.

You got the math all wrong.

THe only thing you got right was names and party affiliation.

Seriously- that one guy sold his house..  That as to count for something  like he's close to even, or even leading.

That other guy abanonded his party and his own advice has never lost a CO election and has awesome name rec.  All you gotta do is look at Rassmussen and know you are way off.

Are you just trying to appear stupid, Pols?

Agree
I pretty much agree with everything that MADCO is saying

In addition, I think CPols is being VERY generous towards Kennedy and Garnett

TABOR4LIFE

[ Parent ]
MADCO is being sarcastic.
n/t

For the truth is a terrible thing.
[ Parent ]
I don't know
I think you're letting the big line get away from you. I still don't understand the advantage you're giving to Garnett. AR probably deserves better than 25-1 at least through primary. Tank with a considerably better chance than McInnis seems a bit odd but since neither has any chance that's a minor quibble that hardly seems to matter. In general I think the line is a tad prone to exaggeration this election cycle. Wish I thought it was all going to be as easy for my guys as your line makes it look!
I agree
For all the weirdness and message-less scorched earth bullshit of the candidate and his campaign, the fact is Romanoff has been able to put more money into TV than most would have expected, and it'll help with the last gasp fundraising he needs build out the buy. He has a better chance than I would have expected to get on TV. But he's competing with thousands of points of Bennet buys going back to March -- viewers that now know Bennet and really don't know Romanoff (even though the Cultists believe his name rec is universal and universally beloved).

If they can get their activists off the streets and on the phones and convert yard signs into actual people, he may be able to close the 15 point gap to single digits, but I remain skeptical he can get within 10.

At least if the Hail Mary doesn't work, he still has the trust fund and now many thousands in newly liquid dollars to go on a great trip to some out-of-the-way and underdeveloped country that needs him so very badly.  

[ Parent ]
trip and poor countries
He could go to Nicauragua - Wade says AR is good friends with Ortega.
[ Parent ]
If we are really lucky he'll take wade with him

[ Parent ]
Not much to quibble with
sure Romanoff probably is closer to 15:1 and I doubt that Garnett really is the the favorite, but my big one is Markey.

I don't see her sitting pretty in the race and I definitely don't see Gardner at 10:1 odds.  At worst Cory is at 6:1 and the idea that Aden will pull votes looks obvious at face value.  However, I think there needs to be some recognition that Republicans are going to do their best to take him to the woodshed and paint the ACP as fringe lunatics (see the latest TV news) and Tancredo as an opportunist, which will have some trickle down.

Markey is tremendously vulnerable and will need a big infusion of cash and 527 money as well as some more missteps from the Gardner campaign.

Also, for the Republican Party, the governor's race is no longer about the GOP beating the Democrats, it's about ensuring that the ACP doesn't gain any sort of foothold as a 3rd party.  The gloves will come off and Wadhams will do whatever it takes to crush them, if he doesn't they will be lamenting it for the next decade.  

 

I mean C'MON
Bob McConnell has better odds than Gardner?  That premise is as insane as Bob McConnell.
[ Parent ]
I don't see her losing either oh Sage one
Democrats are going to rally around her as much as Republicans are going to rail against her.  She has talent and political courage and rarely has a slip up on the campaign trail.  She took out the incumbent Marilyn Musgrave and is ready to defend the seat.  She is in good position to be reelected.
[ Parent ]
And seriously...
Adding Doug Aden makes sense with the Tancredo-ACP connection, but adding Ken "Wasco" Waszkiewicz is a complete waste of space. What happened to not listing left-field long shots? Why not add Jason Clark to the guv line, too? The new big line is laughable.
[ Parent ]
Thank you.


 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT
How about "Unannounced Candidate" on the Gov line with an (R) next to their name
I still think that in the end we see a Governor race without Tancredo, McInnis or Maes. Eventually polling numbers that include Tancredo will be released, and it will show something to the effect of 50-35-15 with Hick in front. At that time (probably late August) some back room conversation will occur, and [Primary Winner] and Tancredo will drop out for the better of the party (and certainly something else), and a new candidate will be appointed.

I know Pols doesn't normally include speculative candidates on the Big Line, but I'd give the Unannounced (R) 5-1 odds.

I don't see that happening
The problem with that scenario is the Republican brand in the Gov race will be so damaged by then, and Hick is so good a campaigner, that whoever steps up would do so knowing they are going to lose.

You don't get the best candidates in that scenario.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

[ Parent ]
I can see it- if, McInnis wins the nomination
And the place holder  is clear that he/she is there to hold the party together long enough to get through this cycle.

If Maes is the nominee and isn't somehow the candidate, it will splinter the party for several cycles to come.  And I on't see Maes withdrawing.

[ Parent ]
I see it happening
When has Wadhams ever had the sense to leave well enough alone?

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Voter Remorse...
How many repubs wish they had voted for Stone for state chair while they had the chance?

Class warfare is only an issue if the teacher makes it one
[ Parent ]
I can't say
Maybe you can offer an opinion.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
We've written before
That Republicans don't think they can win the Governor's race, and any replacement candidate would merely exist to try to prop up the ticket for the Senate candidate and the down-ballot races. We wouldn't expect a replacement candidate, if there is one, to really wage a full-fledged battle in November.
[ Parent ]
Odds
I'm not a gambler, but isn't there a way to represent odds as better than 2-1?

In your words you say that Tancredo has essentially ensured that Hickenlooper will get elected. I agree.

But if I'm reading your line correctly, 2-1 means if I bet $1 that he would win I would collect $2. That's a HUGE win for something that's such a lock. Nobody would take that bet, not even McInnis (who needs to save all his money to be able to pay back that $300K).

If you list the odds as 20-19, for instance, then if I bet $19 I win $1. That's a bet that someone might take as crazier things have happened, but more importantly it makes it more clear what a lock he has on that race.

Odds can have the smaller number first.
I've seen odds like 2:5 or 1:5 in horse races.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Or could be better than 2:1
like 3:2 or 5:4. Those sound like better odds for Hickenlooper. But this isn't for actual gambling, remember!
[ Parent ]
Exactly
But odds ARE for gambling.  They're for calculating the payout.  The odds are a fraction--numerator:denominator.  Fraction * $2.00 + $2.00 is the payout.

2:5 pays $2.80.  1:5 pays $2.40.  3:2 pays $5.00.  5:4 pays $4.50.  2:1 pays $6.00.

The lowest parimutuel odds you'll typically see are 1:9.

Why else would anyone care about odds, LOL?

(I guess I spent too much time at the track in my younger days.)

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Dems Win it All!
I just realized that the Big Line has the Dems winning every race, except CD-6 for Coffman.

I agree that the Dems are going to do better than the pundits say today.  

Bottom Line: The only thing people hate worse than Democrats is Republicans (especially of the Tea Party kind).

ITLDUSO  
Honk hello when you see my license plate!

And they say this site has a liberal bias...
I just realized that the Big Line has the Dems winning every race, except CD-6 for Coffman.


Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
It's Not Bias If They're Proven Correct


ITLDUSO  
Honk hello when you see my license plate!
[ Parent ]
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