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PPP: Norton Leading GOP Senate Race with 34%

by: roguestaffer

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 09:49:48 AM MDT

(As we've said before, folks, hypothetical general election matchups don't mean squat until we get through a primary. It doesn't matter how Bennet or Romanoff would do against Norton, Wiens or Buck, because only two of these candidates can make it to November. - promoted by Colorado Pols)

Full summary from PPP:

In the Republican Senate race Jane Norton leads with 34% to 17% for Ken Buck, 7% for Tom Wiens, and 10% combined for the rest of the field. There are more Republican primary voters who dislike Norton than there are Democrats who dislike either Bennet or Romanoff. Her favorability stands at 41/26. She leads Buck 39-7 with moderates, but by a much narrower 34-21 with conservatives. Given the quarter of GOP primary voters who dislike Norton and the tepid support for her from some voters on the right is Colorado a state where a Tea Party sort of candidate could become a third major candidate this fall and prove to be a spoiler? That would be interesting.
It's too early to completely write off Buck or Wiens because neither is particularly well known right now. 62% of primary voters have no opinion about Buck and 67% are ambivalent toward Wiens. If they have the resources to become better known their support will improve but 17 points is still a lot to make up. (emphasis added)

Good point about resource management - if that is the question, then Buck is at a disadvantage, though 27 points is an even taller hill to climb. This likely explains the early independent expenditures against Norton.

The full memo is here (PDF).

roguestaffer :: PPP: Norton Leading GOP Senate Race with 34%

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PPP: Norton Leading GOP Senate Race with 34% | 14 comments

Doing the Math

Those percentages only add up to 68%. I assume the remaining 32% are undecided? Hardly a sign of passionate support behind any of the GOP candidates. I thought everyone was converting into Republicans these days? That's what the news keeps telling me.

You can argue that it is still early and that those voters are not paying attention yet. However, those surveyed are likely primary voters and probably ARE paying attention.

by: cunninjo @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 16:06:17 PM UTC

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uh... math by a liberal?

Seriously? You're looking at a PPP result and expecting it to add up? When it has Romanoff up how much?

C'mon! This is why liberals don't like it when people rise on their merits. They are expected to learn basic skills... like addition and subtraction.

by: ScottLewis @ Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 05:30:11 AM UTC

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As a liberal who does math

fuck off kindly, thanks.

I demand that all students get As, that all our oil comes from American soil, that waste and fraud be eliminated forever, and that potato chips stop making me fat!

by: sxp151 @ Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 05:34:48 AM UTC

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Also in that memo

is McInnis over Maes 58% to 8%.

by: colorado76 @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 17:01:54 PM UTC

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Maes at just 8%

That's impossible.

I recall some online poll where Maes crushed. And I know Peter Boyles and all his callers from the day last week Maes was on were strong supporters and confident Maes was going to do really, really well.

Could it be that people who call BOyles don't run the world?

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 18:22:10 PM UTC

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You go Cleve!

He's kicking ass with a solid 1 percent.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 17:05:11 PM UTC

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What's the math on that?

Can you imagine the odds against PPP reaching both of Cleve's supporters with their survey? It's astonishing!

A leader on the battlefield can be a leader in Congress. -- redstateblues

by: RedGreen @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 17:26:38 PM UTC

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With the margin of error

Does that mean that Tidwell could potentially have a negative amount of support?

by: redstateblues @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 17:44:12 PM UTC

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What are the odds that there is even a contested primary?

The "not Norton" vote is deeply divided, and it isn't obvious that "not Norton" GOP caucusers will be able to rally around one candidate.

Even Ken Buck just barely makes it onto the ballot and Norton gets a majority of the caucus support, does Buck even stay in the race?

by: ohwilleke @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 22:29:37 PM UTC

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Not Norton isn't a Norton vote

If a candidate gets less than 10%, they can't petition on.

Buck's won the last 4 GOP straw polls. If a Not-Norton candidate doesn't make the ballot, smart money says they go to the candidate least Norton, which probably means Buck.

Wiens doesn't poll well, but he's got money so he looks good. If he misses the ballot, his supporters go to Buck.

I predict a Norton-Buck primary.

by: right_of_center @ Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 23:09:18 PM UTC

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Not disagreeing with you...

Just think you're counting chickens before they hatch.

I doubt BOTH of Tidwell's supporters (nice RG!) are likely to become energized by Buck, Wiens or anyone. That's why they support Cleve.

On the other hand, its gonna be FUN to watch Wiens crash tomorrow and then we can try to track the FEC reports on his "LOAN".

Buck... Who knows where he stand after tomorrow. THAT is the $50,000 question, isn't it?

Does he REALLY have enough supporters in enough places to garner chance at making the ballot? IF not, can his supporters humbly approach those of failing candidates to join the "Not-Norton" campaign?

Sadly, I don't think that is a successful tactic. No one EVER gets excited about being the "Not them" team. Look at Kerry's 04 Presidential run. A LOT of people didn't like President Bush but Kerry's brillant strategy of "No W" completely failed to energize anyone.

Is THAT what we want? A candidate who tries to beat Obama and Bennet with a slogan "I'm Not Norton!"

I don't think so.

by: ScottLewis @ Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 05:27:02 AM UTC

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Tidwell

won the Broomfield 9/12 pre-caucus straw poll tonight with 45%. Interestingly, Norton got not a SINGLE vote. I know the limitations of straw polls, but if these voters turn out at caucus, we could see some real surprises.

Broomfield 912 - Straw Poll - 3/6/2010 - General Meeting
Governor
Dan Maes 91%
Scott McInnis 9%
Hickenlooper / Hand 0%
undecided 0%
Senate
Barton 7%
Buck 28%
Tidwell 45%
Wiens 20%
Bennet / Norton / Roman / Stringer 0%
undecided 0%
CD2
Bailey 94%
Harris 6%
Polis / Hammons /Brancato 0%
undecided 0%
CD7
Fraizer 20%
Lakey 40%
Sias 40%
Perlmutter / Deming / Sheeley 0%
undecided 0%

A leader on the battlefield can be a leader in Congress. -- redstateblues

by: RedGreen @ Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 05:37:13 AM UTC

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your dates are funky...

Not sure I'm just not catching it, but the date on the poll and your "straw poll tonight" claim don't match up...got a link we can look at for those results?

That's the first straw poll I've seen Maes handle, too. In El Paso, it was 50/50, and that's the best I've seen him do (feel free to correct me, I'm not enamored with either of them, so I haven't been watching it as closely).

Even with these numbers, though, has Tidwell shown much at any of the other 9/12 events? Not at any that I've seen (but not all of them have been well publicized).

SL, I'm not sure it'll end up being a "Not" style race, especially when the field narrows. If Buck can be positive (and get some ads out), he should be able to turn the "Not-Norton" into Pro-Buck. I agree, though, a "not" campaign is usually a weak campaign because you don't have a strong candidate (look at McCain in 08...there was a lot of "not-Obama", but not much pro McCain...there might've been more pro-Paul than pro-McCain...)

by: right_of_center @ Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 15:38:03 PM UTC

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