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New PPP Poll: Hick up 11 on McInnis

by: roguestaffer

Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 10:31:12 AM MST


Details here: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Long excerpt:

John Hickenlooper is bucking the trends that have Democrats trailing right now in most of the major races across the country, and that makes him the early favorite to be Colorado's next Governor.

Hickenlooper leads Scott McInnis 50-39. He's up 48-34 with independents, making this only the third race we've polled since November where the Democratic candidate had a lead with that group. And he also has Democratic voters more unified around him (85%) than Republican voters are around McInnis (77%). In the vast majority of races we've looked at recently GOP candidates are doing a better job of keeping their party lined up behind them than Democrats are.

There's absolutely no doubt Democrats are better off with Hickenlooper in the race than they would have been if Bill Ritter had tried for reelection. While Hickenlooper's favorability spread is a positive 51/27, Ritter's approval rating continues to be in negative territory as it has been for the last year at 38/50. That's a 36 point net improvement for Democrats by swapping Ritter for Hickenlooper and given that it's no wonder the party's in so much better shape now.

McInnis' favorability spread stands at 28/27, almost identical to his 30/25 standing when PPP last surveyed Colorado in August. McInnis led Ritter by 8 points then but it's clear now that had a whole lot more to do with Ritter than it did with McInnis, given the 19 point shift in the horse race we've seen since Hickenlooper entered.

You can read the full tabs here (PDF): http://www.publicpolicypolling...

The sample size was 580 voters, interviewed called 3/5-3/8, with a 4.1% MOR.
roguestaffer :: New PPP Poll: Hick up 11 on McInnis
I'm not going to get into an argument over what this means (especially given the Razzie poll that also came out this past week, which had McInnis beating Hickenlooper, 48-42). Suffice it to say that one of these models is right, the other is wrong.

With that in mind, at this point in time, I tend more towards the PPP model. It's early in the race, and I think Hick has been more of a political presence in this state recently than McInnis (who left Congress in the early '90s, nearly 20 years ago). Sorry - I screwed up. McInnis left Congress in '05. (thanks to RedGreen for pointing that out.

The floor is yours.
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New PPP Poll: Hick up 11 on McInnis | 69 comments
Good to see something other than Rasmussen/Fox
n/t

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.
Is PPP any more credible than Rasmussen?
Seems like Rasmussen tends to lean GOP. Does PPP have a slant?
PPP is a Democratic polling firm

[ Parent ]
Wrong.
Please read Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com

Rasmussen has a 5% house effect for Republicans.  Not so with PPP.

[ Parent ]
PPP could be more accurate than Ras
but it's still a Democratic polling firm, which is all I said.  
[ Parent ]
Not Slanted GOP != Democratic
Maybe we could say "more democratic leaning."
[ Parent ]
Define "Democratic polling firm"...
The founder of the company is indeed a Democratic contributor, but the firm does not have a Democratic lean.  From 538:
PPP, a firm that has frequently been accused of/assumed to have a Democratic-leaning house effect in fact does not have one.


"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
All well and good
Silver is probably correct to find PPP polls don't have a Democratic slant, contrasted with Reamussen polls and their decided Republican slant. But that doesn't mean PPP isn't also a Democratic polling firm.

Stuart Rothenberg discussed the difference here:

Recently, Republicans have started complaining long and hard about polling conducted this cycle by Public Policy Polling in the Tar Heel State. They note, quite correctly, that PPP is a Democratic polling firm and that too many reporters fail to note their partisan bent. GOP insiders also complain about the firm's sample, arguing that it often is too urban and too Democratic, and that its surveys understate Burr's strength and his prospects for re-election.

If readers don't know that PPP is a Democratic firm, they are reading the wrong publications. At the Rothenberg Political Report, we've regarded PPP as a Democratic firm, and identified it as such, since it has been around. In February, Roll Call reporter John McArdle wrote a lengthy article about PPP, calling it "a Democratic firm based in Raleigh" and referring to the company's "controversial" methodology. National Journal's Hotline also identifies PPP as a Democratic firm, as does the News & Observer (Raleigh).

It's true that some newspapers don't always note PPP's Democratic credentials - including the Charlotte Observer, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the News-Topic (Lenoir, N.C.) - but that's not PPP's fault. Obviously, any reporter who fails to note the firm's partisan bent is making an error, and Republicans have a legitimate gripe with them.

GOP efforts to discredit PPP because it is a Democratic firm are a different story. Yes, it's important to note the firm's partisan connections, and it's not unreasonable to be wary, at least initially, of its numbers. But the fact that the polling firm works for Democrats doesn't make its poll numbers inherently flawed.

In fact, the handful of us who have been reporting on and handicapping House and Senate races for many years tend to believe that partisan pollsters generally produce more reliable numbers than colleges and some newspapers. The key, of course, is to get them to share those numbers and to discuss them free of spin.


[ Parent ]
Good news for Hickenooper
but PPP uses robocalls, same as Rasmussen, so it's not exactly accurate to say the voters were "interviewed," the way respondents were in the Harstad poll released by the Bennet campaign, which used real, live poll-takers.

And McInnis left Congress just five years ago, not in the early '90s. He took over the seat from Ben Campbell in 1993 and handed it off to John Salazar in 2005.

Keep it Up RedGreen
Just keep thinking you're going to take the governorship and the legislature.  That's right, it'll make you feel better.
[ Parent ]
You don't even read the comments, do you?
My comment was about PPP using robocalls and the diary being incorrect about when McInnis left Congress. What, you didn't have a canned response to those ready?
[ Parent ]
"keep thinking you're going to take the governorship and the legislature"
You don't read this site much, do you, Craig?  
[ Parent ]
Craig's just feisty
He's accused me of being a Republican shill too. I think it's a username color thing.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
You are a Republican shill
or a Communist. Whatever that red thing means in your name.
[ Parent ]
My horribly dated username and e-mail
Contain many secrets.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
On robo-polls
I haven't seen anything to demonstrate that they are in any way less accurate than live ones. That's not to say that there aren't other biases at Rasmussen or PPP, but just pointing out that they are robo-polls does nothing to reduce their credibility.

"If someone just sticks to shutting the fuck up, can they still go outside and play a game of hide and go fuck yourself?" -- Fidel's Dirt Nap


[ Parent ]
Which is why
I didn't point that out to impeach their credibility, but merely to suggest roguestaffer use another word than "interviewed," which implies some sort of interaction that's lacking in robocalls.

And thanks to roguestaffer, who is consistently one of the best informed and most interesting diarists on here, for fixing those things in the original diary -- we all make silly blunders now and then.

[ Parent ]
Ahh, I see.
Well that's legit, I read too much into your post. My apologies.

"If someone just sticks to shutting the fuck up, can they still go outside and play a game of hide and go fuck yourself?" -- Fidel's Dirt Nap


[ Parent ]
Clearly, this is
the fault of Ritter's O&G regs.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?"  sufimarie Feb 2010
Gong.
LMAO.
[ Parent ]
Republicans diving right in...


"I don't know about (Andrew) Jackson; I do know he detests Woodrow Wilson."~bjwilson83

"infrastructure, whatever that is."~ bjwilson83 "Fake but accurate!" ~ GOPwarrior
Typical Liberal Bias
Of course Hickenlooper is up. He is the democrat running for office, and this poll comes from a left leaning site. In the most recent Rasmussen poll of perspective Colorado voters McInnis is leading Hickenlooper 48% to 42%.  This is just another lame duck attempt by the left to show support for the mayor after getting trounced in a recognized established polling source.  While Hickelooper keeps hush McInnis is out there with the people getting his message across.
You must be dizzy
I think you went 360º on that one.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
No spinning here.
He's not dizzy, he's right.  
[ Parent ]
Oh wow
Brand new account to post that! Way to go!

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Okey Dokey
Bless you for trying.
[ Parent ]
It's good to know
Republicans have a triguardian too.

Check's in the mail SXP!

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

[ Parent ]
I've already spent it
so I hope it gets here soon.

Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!
[ Parent ]
IF THE DENVER POST IS READING THIS
I'd be happy to give my 2 cents worth on the validity of the PPP survey vs. the Rasmussen survey. Feel free to get in touch, I can respect your deadline needs and will provide a sparkling quote.
[ Parent ]
Heh n/t


Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!
[ Parent ]
Ok- your work is done here.
Rassmussen has it nailed- R's are winning everything CO 2010.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?"  sufimarie Feb 2010
[ Parent ]
Do you know what "lame duck" means?

[ Parent ]
Or "prospective"?

[ Parent ]
Why?
How come neither Speaker Romanoff nor Senator Bennet have released their head to head polling numbers?  A rumor floating around has Romanoff ahead in the Democratic primary in the Bennet poll but that is only a rumor. Obviously Bennet did not do a poll that only showed how he would fare in the general and should release his primary numbers too.

Great job by Team Hickenlooper to immediately get their favorable numbers out right after Rasmussen's latest poll.  

That's why they call them "inetrnal"


"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?"  sufimarie Feb 2010
[ Parent ]
How stupid are you?
Hickenlooper didn't "get this out", PPP isn't Hick's private/internal polling. They poll all over the place and release their numbers to the public.

Stop trying to float ridiculous rumors and say things that make you seem like an insider. I would have hoped you would learn some humility after your stupid "rumors" about the Bennet/Obama event were shot down and proven factually untrue, but I guess that was hoping too much. The only thing you're doing is making yourself and the Romanoff campaign seem desperate and foolish.

"If someone just sticks to shutting the fuck up, can they still go outside and play a game of hide and go fuck yourself?" -- Fidel's Dirt Nap


[ Parent ]
release their numbers to the public
Exactly. PPP polled Colorado, independent of any campaign, and will be unfurling its results through Monday, when the Senate and governor primary polls get posted. That oughta be interesting!  
[ Parent ]
I can see that i'm not the only person passionate here
Coloradopols is great.

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.
Rasmussen I can track and they put McInnis ahead.
Rasmussen is conservative which makes them reliable in the long haul. PPP is enthusiastically liberal and always seems to have qualifiers. MOR is 4.1% but I quote:

Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

I wouldn't get too comfortable if I were in Hick's camp having to use PPP.

Rasmussen has that disclaimer as well
as would any half-reputable polling firm.

Did you really just complain about the margin of error without having any idea what it means, just to discredit a poll you don't like?

Oh, you did.

Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!

[ Parent ]
The only real issue here isn't the political slant of either Rasmussen or PPP
It doesn't matter which party the polling firm leans towards. Its the polling methods and sample that count. I have no idea what methods either PPP or Rasmussen use when pulling a sample but if it isn't weighted correctly they will have skewed results which could be intentional or incompetence.

Also, robo polls, regardless of the political leanings of the firm conducting the poll, are notoriously unreliable.  If PPP and Rasmussen utilized robo calls, then I don't think either poll can be trusted.

If PPP, for example, utilized tradtional polling methods then the results are probably close to the true sentiment of the voters (at the moment).  

[ Parent ]
always seems to have qualifiers
So does every reputable poll, Ellie, what's your point? And you do realize "Hick's camp," far from "having to use PPP," has its own polling firm conducting real, live interviews, right?  
[ Parent ]
Both camps have internal polls.
And that's how it should be.  My only point was that PPP gives you the MOR and then there's the "and by the way" clause immediately following.  Not terribly reassuring I would think. Generally any disclaimers are in the methodology portion of the results.  

I also finding it interesting when Rasmussen came out Monday with McInnis ahead there was nary a mention much less a debate.


[ Parent ]
You want lack of confidence?
How about figuring out why the Rasmussen poll results are such a huge swing from their last poll?  Hint: it's called Margin Of Error, and they seem to have hit one side of the MOE on the previous poll and the other side on this one.

I'd average the two Ras numbers and call it a dead heat in Rasmussen's eyes; I'm also going out on a limb here and saying that PPP's poll results are probably also on one side of the error bar - if they polled a few more times, I'm guessing they'd average out to a 3-4 point Hickenlooper lead.  Adjust the Ras numbers for house bias, and I'd say a 3-4 point lead for the Mayor is a good call.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
Now there's some good polling methodology.
Abritrary 3rd party adjustment for "house bias."

What a crock...

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

[ Parent ]
It's all statistics, BR.
House bias is assigned to pollsters based on their polling history - it's not at all arbitrary.

Rasmussen, even when they're being really accurate toward the end of a Presidential race, leans toward GOP results.  Their poll results this year have been even far more GOP slanted than other polling organizations (and their own past record).

So - it's only a crock if you're not interested in the best available interpretation of the data being presented.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
Let's just allow elections to speak for the validity of their polls.
The last poll Rasmussen did before the Mass. Senate election said Coakley would win by two points.  And Brown won by five.  I'm completely missing where your point is backed up by reality?

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.
[ Parent ]
Because normal people don't cherry-pick data.
They look at long-term trends and large groups of data.

You're picking one race, and one poll in that race.  (Heck, pick 5 or 10 - if you're not looking at the whole data set, you're not a good statistician.)

Margins of error, house bias, sample sizes, reliability - all of these things are mathematical.  Statistical formulas like these are used by real people in the hard sciences, economics, sociology (which includes pollsters) and many other occupations day in and day out; they're well understood and mathematically proven concepts to people who are trained with them.

I'm sorry you don't like them and don't want to use statistical formulas in your "analysis" - but, like the theory of gravity, wishing them away isn't going to change anything.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
I wasn't cherry picking. YOU made the claim that...
..."their poll results from this year have been  even far more GOP slanted" than "their own past record."

That claim has absolutely no backing, since there has only been ONE election on which they conducted polling this year, and their last polling was seven points off in FAVOR of the Democrat.  Granted, one election does not a trend make, but it's all we have to look at at the moment.  Anything else you have to say about their perceived Republican bias this year is completely unsubstantiated opinion.

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

[ Parent ]
I'm not going to bother
Or, rather, I'll make one last try before giving in to the apparent reality that you like your Rasmussen minus analysis.

Rasmussen admits that their new voter weighting/screen skews more Republican  (i.e. more Republican than the 'more Republican' screens that all the other polling outfits have adopted in this low-Dem enthusiasm climate).

Pollster.com has taken to generating separate charts minus Rasmussen and the heavily Democratic-skewed YouGov just because they're so non-conformant with other polls.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
I searched high and low and couldn't find any...
...mention of charts that omit Rasmussen on Pollster.com.  But I did find their reasoned discussion about why Rasmussen is perceived as an outlier.

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.
[ Parent ]
Survey USA, a republican pollster, used the same disclaimer language. So there's nothing "not terribly reassuring here" -- other than your ignorance, Ellie


BJ:"Neanderthal Man was a hoax...fossil record utterly refutes evolution";"when Mohammed came along the sanctity of life went out the window";"education started with Catholics"(Jew=dumb?); a health ins.MINIMUM="death panel" b/c min may exclude something
[ Parent ]
We could
But I prefer to say "fair and balanced."

Best to kill them early instead of letting them possibly need food stamps.
--marilou, 2010
[ Parent ]
I don't know why this landed hereI
It was supposed to be up above in response to  dlof.

But since I'm down here, let me tell raymond that Ellie is anything but ignorant--particularly with regard to polling.

You don't know Ellie; you don't know what she does for a living.  I do.  "Ignorant" is not a word I would use to describe her.

Best to kill them early instead of letting them possibly need food stamps.
--marilou, 2010

[ Parent ]
I find it interesting
you missed all the discussion about the Rasmussen poll. Were you paying nary any attention?
[ Parent ]
To give her credit
There wasn't a front page story on it.  It came the same day as the Harstad poll, and the only diary write-up was by Libertad.

But you're right, too - there was a lot of discussion about it across several stories/diaries.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
By the way, just because a polling firm is considered to be one who favors conservatives or is conservative has nothing to do with the reliability of its poll results

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen backs up the Razzie poll.
What polls back up PPP?

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.
Razzie=Rasmussen
Unless there was another poll with an outfit called razzie. Maybe its a Harvard polling outfit which also hands out movie awards.
[ Parent ]
That's what happens when you get an hour and a half of sleep.
My bad.  I guess the only other poll I see is DailyKos/R2000, which calls it a toss up.  So we could be looking at a toss up, but at most it's probably four points in either direction.

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.
[ Parent ]
I think its too early
But I am no expert. Plus I just read a thread on another forum about the razzie awards, so my little bit of snark was hilarious to me. Sorry for that.
[ Parent ]
I got robo-called by PPP on Monday night.
It started with the Governor's race and then went on to the Senate race.  It did include questions about AR.

Oddly (odd to me anyway) I was robo-called by Rasmussen in Feb.  I guess that's what I get for still having a land line.  

PPP is as truthful as a Nancy Pelosi press conference
Let's see, Rasmussen calls almost every single race within 3 points. They have Scott McInnis up by 6. For good reason, McInnis won't raise your taxes, doesn't support cradle to grave entitlements, doesn't want California style spending in Colorado and (gasp) wants to run a state that businesses actually want to come to and create jobs. John "sanctuary city" Hickenlooper has presided over a city budget that is up to its eyeballs in red ink. In 4 short years, Ritter has made Colorado one of the worst states to do business in. That doesn't just happen. Policy dictates that rating. Obama has the lowest approval rating of any president at this point in his presidency. Ritter saw the writing on the wall and gave up while he could and now we're supposed to believe that someone that is more liberal than Ritter is up by double-digits??? Glad to see fuzzy math is alive and well.

Vote Scott McInnis in November because CO can't afford a 2nd term of Ritter via Hickenlooper.

This diary sure is bringing out the newbies
Welcome aboard, CIB.

If you want to make a good impression, you might start by making truthful statements based on facts.

You said:

In 4 short years, Ritter has made Colorado one of the worst states to do business in.

But U.S. New & World Report says:
The 7 Best States to Start a Business

3. Colorado. It's probably not a coincidence that one of the fastest-growing states (the population is estimated to have grown 13 percent from 2000 to 2007) is also one of the best to start a business.


There are 10 kinds of people in the world. Those that understand binary and those that don't.
[ Parent ]
Is McCain giving out windbreakers, clock radios, etc again?
That's what this post reminded me of. 2008 was a simpler time, when you knew that shills and sock puppets could at least get a toaster for their efforts. Things sure have changed. We should change it back!

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Some people
are still only points away from that golf club cozy. Don't hate them because they're showing initiative, RSB. It's the American Way.
[ Parent ]
Facts for ardy
You might want to take some of your own advice on impressions and truthful facts when commenting on stories on this wonderful website:

In the 2006 race for governor, Rasmussen polling showed Ritter leading Bob Beauprez by 12, 51% to 39%. Ritter won by 15, 56% to 41%. In the 2004 presidential race, Rasmussen polling in Colorado showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry by five, 50% to 45%. Bush won the state by five, 52% to 47%./blockquote>

Rasmussen has McInnis up by 6.

Sorry, I don't have any US News reports on the numbers. Thanks for the welcome.


[ Parent ]
Interesting trajectory
HeylookatmeI'mnewherewatchthistalkingpointnow-
here'sanotheronebulletpointbulletpointbulletpoint-
checkoutmywordcountyouallsuckIHATEYOUflameout!!!!??!!!

Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!
[ Parent ]
quick hits
RedGreen: thanks for the praise - really! I just try to do my best. When you made those points, I wanted the original to be as accurate as possible, hence the update. Thanks for pointing it out - for whatever reason, I was having a brain lockup this morning in the midst of work & school.


Currently working for no campaign or candidate.
New PPP Poll: Hick up 11 on McInnis | 69 comments
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