Magellan Poll: Stapleton Maintains Healthy Lead in GOP Field

The Republican race for Governor appears to be a two person race between Walker Stapleton (L) and Victor Mitchell

Last week the Colorado-based, Republican-leaning polling outfit Magellan Strategies released the first public numbers in the Democratic gubernatorial Primary that we’d seen in several months. According to Magellan’s numbers from a survey taken May 30-31, 2018, Rep. Jared Polis led closest challenger Cary Kennedy by 13 points among likely voters, with both Mike Johnston and Donna Lynne failing to even reach double digits.

Today Magellan released numbers in the Republican gubernatorial Primary. If these figures are accurate, Walker Stapleton leads the rest of the GOP field by — you guessed it — 13 points! From Magellan:

Treasurer Walker Stapleton currently leads the Republican primary field for Governor with a 13-point lead and 36% support. His closest challenger is businessman Victor Mitchell with 23% support. Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez has 10% support, Doug Robinson has 4% and 27% of likely Republican primary voters are undecided. Among male voters, Walker Stapleton holds a commanding 23-point lead over Victor Mitchell. Among female voters the election is much tighter and within the survey margin of error. Among seniors aged 65 and older, the most dominant and important Republican primary voter sub-group, Walker Stapleton leads Victor Mitchell by 24 points, 47% to 23% respectively.

Victor Mitchell appears to be the only Republican candidate within shouting distance of Stapleton, while Greg Lopez (10%) and Mitt Romney’s Nephew (4%) are likely out of the picture altogether. Lopez can at least console himself with a weekend straw poll victory.

Magellan Strategies, June 6-7, 2018

13 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    Interesting.  Even Punch Your Wife Lopez leads Mitts nephew.

  2. JohnInDenver says:

    A 15% differential between men and women for Dubya Stapleton? What has he done to deserve a gender gap like that?

     

    • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

      Besides not show up for work 2/3 of the time, threaten PERA retirement benefits, and get away with a 1999 DUI that injured two people? Or continue to double-dip from a California real estate company while being employed as Colorado's treasurer?

      Besides all that, he comes across as fundamentally dishonest and evasive.

      Mitchell is a smiling fascist, but he does come across as authentic.

      • JohnInDenver says:

        Why would any of those issues bother Republican women that much more than Republican men, MJ?

        • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

          Women get hit harder when short-changed in retirement. Which Staplegun wants to do.

          Total speculation on my part, JiD, but….

          …you haven't seen real man-hating until you have spent time in a dead-end job with middle-aged white women who have been passed over for promotion many times by fatuous spoiled rich-kid boys like Walker Stapleton. The female clerks, middle managers, and secretaries might all be Trump voters who believe in ancient aliens and chemtrails, and they might smile and make nice to keep a professional demeanor, but they know that the boss's kid gets the big bucks that the harder-working ladies deserve.

          If you want serious cut-it-off man-hating castration jokes, hang out in a break room with a bunch of embittered white women.

          Bush-baby Walker doesn't bother to clock in to work half the time, he gets away with a DUI that hurt two women,  he wants to cut PERA benefits for retirees, and that will hit women harder than men, because we make less money to begin with, and for a variety of reasons, tend to retire in poverty.

          So when Walker bleats about "shared sacrifice" for PERA retirees, white middle aged women know that he's telling them to stock up on the cat food, baby…but he won't share any sacrifice; he's got a real estate company in California wine country to run. While he's treasurer of Colorado.

          Whereas Mitchell is a smiling fascist, but he's a self-made smiling fascist that at least built and ran telecom, transport, and materials companies.

          So nothing but anecdotal info here, but  for what it's worth, that's my explanation of the WS  gender gap.

    • VoyageurVoyageur says:

      Don't over analyze subgroupings.  If a 600 voter sample has a statistical 6 pct margin of error but only 300 men and 300 women, the margin of error in those smaller groups is much higher.  By the time you get to, say, 50 blacks, the sampling error can be enormous.

       

      • RepealAndReplace says:

        50 blacks….
        Do they have that many in the modern Colorado GOP?

      • davebarnesdavebarnes says:

        GOPers do not refer to them as "blacks", but as "Negroes". Remember, this is the party that longs for the 1950s to return.

      • JohnInDenver says:

        Voyageur

        I don't think I'm over analyzing … "an automated voice recorded and cell phone survey of 593 likely Republican primary voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted on June 6th and 7th, 2018. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.02% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The results were weighted to reflect the voter turnout demographics of past Republican primary elections in Colorado."

        I consulted a stats calculator. The announced 4.02% is a consistent with an assumption of about 350,000 voters. With 51% female, that gets to just over 175,000 women; just over half the calls (302) gets 5.62% margin of error.

        We could quibble about some of the assumptions [why would turnout be the average of 2012, 2014 and 2016? why does Magellan think “no party” people will be 14% of the Republican vote?] — but a Stapleton lead of 23% among men and 3% among women jumped out at me.

        • VoyageurVoyageur says:

          For openers, as you noted, the margin of error does rise with the smaller number.

          Plus

          1.  The 95 percent confidence level means 19 out of 20 times the error is within this range.  With 100s of surveys taken each year, several will be outliers.

          2.Results were weighted.  Know what that means?  Maybe they only got 200 men because women are more likely to be home when they called.  So they weigh the number of men, multiplying by 1.5 to pretend they had 300.  If the margin of error is 8  pct with a sample of 200, it is now 12 percent.

          Margin of error refers to statistical error only. Practical problems make it much worse.

          Geezers like me don't use cellphone.  Young punks like Bowman don't have landlines. pollsters have a terrible time adjusting for this.  Statisically we geezers are over represented, so they weight young voters higher.  

          About 95 percent of voters now categorically refuse to answer surveys.  I get about 10 survey calls a week — that land line thing –and always refuse to answer.  Are the tiny handful that still answer polls representative of the vast majority that don't?

          One other thing: Trump stinks.  Just thought I would mention it.smiley

          I co-taught a course at cu graduate school of public affairs with Floyd Cirulli for 8 years and heard him lecture on this stuff many times.

          Polls are only marginally useful to begin with.   Take subgroup numbers with an especially large grain of salt. 

          • VoyageurVoyageur says:

            Remember one other thing– margins of error can be added or subtracted to all numbers in a poll.  If a subgroup of 200 has a margin of error of 8 percent, that 23-3 margin could as easily be 15-11.

            • VoyageurVoyageur says:

              Pps by the way, John, I don't mean to disagree with your analysis.  The difference in male and female support for Wayno is striking and isn't likely to result solely from the polling inaccuracies I flagged.  I'm just saying don't take the numbers too seriously, they are far from precise.   But the difference does seem si gnificant.

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