November 08, 2009 08:05 PM UTC

Lessons from Last Tuesday

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• by: ClubTwitty

Former Senate Leader John Andrews opinion piece today in the Denver Post purports to deconstruct the lessons in last Tuesday’s elections.

Before last Tuesday, only one loss had ever marred Barack Obama’s smooth ascent to greatness. From the Harvard Law Review to the Illinois Senate to the U.S. Senate to the White House, the charmed young leader rose unstoppably. The lone speed bump was his congressional primary defeat in 2000.

Then came the shellacking of 2009. Governorships in two key states flipped from Democrat to Republican despite the president’s best efforts. Virginia and New Jersey were both solidly blue a year ago. But recession-weary voters proved to be a stingier prize jury than the leftists of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

However Andrews’ perspective is clouded by his partisan lens.  Nowhere does he even consider NY23 and what the lesson here might portend for his own party.

Virginia is the quintessential swing state–part southern Republican, part young and urban.  The defeat of Democrat Deeds here–whom about everyone agreed was a poor and uninspiring candidate–is not surprising.  In NJ the GOP candidate–who defeated incumbent Corzine–ran as a moderate, incorporating a number of Obamian themes in his campaign.  Corzine, meanwhile, was widely unpopular.

I read the lessons from NJ and VA differently than Andrews.  Although Obama won VA, McCain voters turned out in greater numbers in this election than did their Obama counterparts. Corzine mostly sank his own boat–none of the exit polls suggested that even a pluarality (let alone a majority) voted ‘against’ or ‘for’ Obama.  (More voted ‘against’ than ‘for’ in VA, about the same–20% to 19%–reinforcing the lesson for Democrats mentioned below).

So what do the lessons that Mr. Andrews pretends to read really suggest?  Two things-

If the Democratic/Obama voters don’t turn out, then Democratic candidates–including Gov. Ritter and Sen. Bennet–are in trouble.  Rather than standing undecided in the middle, working to excite and turn out the Democratic base seems a better route to victory.  The complication is whether the GOP learns the lesson from NY23.

The warning from NY23 (which has been represented by a Republican in Congress since 1872) is for the GOP: If the GOP runs teabag candidates in the general, then moderates might very well tend toward Democrats.