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Post Isn't Playing Early Poll Guessing Games

by: Colorado Pols

Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 09:48:07 AM MDT

The Denver Post's Lynn Bartels writes for Politics West:

A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows Scott McInnis beating Josh Penry in the GOP gubernatorial race next year, but the Denver Post has held back on reporting outside polls.

For a host of reasons we've been clear on all week, we think it's a responsible decision. We'll talk more about candidate polls, like the Post will, when they're gauging opinions relevant to the coming election. Better polls, more of them, (and above all) once the public is actually paying attention again--then there will be a story worth writing.

Of course there are beneficiaries of any particular poll who won't agree, and will argue for these numbers to be shouted from the rooftops--persuasively? Uh, well...

Mike Hesse, a McInnis strategist, tried a different tack today.
"If I had Scott yell at the pollster with the radio on would you print the poll?" he asked.
Fun-ny!

Colorado Pols :: Post Isn't Playing Early Poll Guessing Games

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Post Isn't Playing Early Poll Guessing Games | 18 comments

"If I had Scott yell...."

Not an idle threat!

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche

by: twas brillig @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 16:35:43 PM UTC

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Who will embrace the conspiracy fringe first?

As PPP noted in the press release,

McInnis leads Josh Penry 36-15. There is no meaningful divide along ideological lines, as he leads by 24 points with conservatives and 21 points with moderates.

Will this shift Penry into embracing wing-nut conspiracy theories that 65 percent of Republican voters in Colorado believe like his partner in neo-cons Gardner has? Or will Penry actually lead his party back to principled positions and let McInnis keep the crazy base support and go for the moderates? Which could lose Penry the primary considering their are more crazies than moderates in the modern day Colorado Republican party.

This just got interesting.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

by: Go Blue @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 18:37:17 PM UTC

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I love the smell of a GOP primary

in the summer...

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'

by: ClubTwitty @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 19:20:22 PM UTC

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What did the other gentleman Dan Maes recieve?

My guess is Penry will be out of the race before the first snow.

by: Retired @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 19:33:34 PM UTC

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While righties hated Clinton,

Jimmy Carter and probably most Dem Presidents as far back as FDR, I don't recall them calling any before Obama "nazis", much less making it a mantra complete with swastikas and pictures defaced with the little Hitler mustache.

They may have accused the Clintons of murder but they didn't call Hillarycare a Nazi Health Plan. I'm thinking the reason for righties taking such a shine to the word "nazi" is because polite society forbids using the other "n" word.

Considering what you see on rightie blogs... a comment supposedly on health care but starting right out referring to Obama as "monkey lips" for instance... and the non-healthcare related birther/I-want-my-country-back/we need to water the tree of liberty(wasn't this government duly elected by majorities?) crap you hear at the town halls, I think it's the other "n" word behind all the hyperbole.

by: BlueCat @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 19:55:57 PM UTC

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A good observation......

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

by: parsingreality @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 21:55:34 PM UTC

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oops

I posted this on wrong thread which is why it has nothing to do with Penry/McInnis etc. Sorry and thanks parsing for not asking me what the hell I'm talking about here!

by: BlueCat @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 00:41:13 AM UTC

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wasn't this government duly elected by majorities?

which is more than can be said for administration which took office in Jan. '01

by: One Queer Dude @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 17:46:16 PM UTC

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THANK YOU

by: redstateblues @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 17:55:31 PM UTC

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That's not the real news from that poll

McInnis beating Penry is utterly uninteresting. That's just name ID, although I think Pols (and others) tendency to write off McInnis is silly and (shocker here) very legislature-centered. Name ID or no, McInnis has the clear advantage on Penry. Not least just by virtue of a strong, I'd say unearned but who cares, reputation as a moderate. He'd get a LOT of Indy votes.

The real news is that McInnis is actually ahead of Ritter in this poll, with Penry a few behind. Ritter is in HUGE trouble.

by: BoulderDem @ Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 23:00:10 PM UTC

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Don't get too far ahead of yourself

People are unhappy right now (go figure). And so the generic answer in a poll will have the incumbents down. But this is with no discussion about who is to blame for what and what each proposes doing about it.

Wait until the discussion starts and the Republican candidates say they want the state to cut back even more.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 03:14:24 AM UTC

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We're not writing McInnis off by any means

But he has to prove that he can use his ammunition for something other than shooting himself in the foot. Theoretically, McInnis should be a tough candidate. But he has to start acting like one soon.

by: Colorado Pols @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 05:40:56 AM UTC

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Right

I believe if McInnis is going to get his mojo back, it's going to be by proving to Colorado Republicans high and low that he get in the ring with Josh Penry and whip him. Until he knocks a young whippersnapper like Penry down a peg or two, who's going to believe he can take on an incumbent?

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche

by: twas brillig @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 13:51:10 PM UTC

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I think McInnis expects to coast to the GOP nomination

And I think he's going to find that, to win, he's going to have to fight like hell to the last bloody inch.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 16:22:16 PM UTC

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Think so?

He seems scared, and based on posts here Penry seems to be doing better.

I just went back to look for polls, and I guess I'd missed how lopsided it was. McInnis 34%, Penry 11% a month ago? Wow.

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

by: sxp151 @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 18:06:43 PM UTC

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I'm not saying he should feel that way

just that I think he does.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 14:29:13 PM UTC

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I think that's good analysis, brillig.

n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 16:47:20 PM UTC

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Neither is Penry .... Playing Early Poll Guessing Games