NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning the General Election. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.
Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.
LAST UPDATE: June 27, 2018
(D) Jared Polis* (60%)↑
Overwhelming victory in Democratic Primary makes Polis the candidate to beat in November.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (40%)
Stapleton is a mess, but he’s the Republican nominee.
(D) Phil Weiser* (55%)↑
Weiser is going to have the resources to end a long drought for Democrats here.
(R) George Brauchler* (45%)
Brauchler really wanted Joe Salazar to win the Democratic Primary.
(R) Brian Watson* (50%)
Watson is a slight favorite because he has the personal wealth to fund a serious ad run.
(D) Dave Young* (50%)
Greeley lawmaker much more likely to win in November than Bernard Douthit.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(R) Wayne Williams* (60%)↓
If voters are paying attention to this race by November, Williams could be in trouble.
(D) Jena Griswold* (40%)↑
Not much to discuss at this point; this is the only statewide race that won’t be impacted by June Primary.
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)↑
Big Primary win ensures another term for DeGette.
(R) Casper Stockham* (1%)
This yammering twit is back again and headed for the same result as 2016.
(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)↑
Neguse will be the first African-American elected to federal office from Colorado.
(R) Peter Yu* (5%)
(D) Jared Polis (OFF)
Democratic nominee for Governor in 2018.
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (60%)↓
Tipton is definitely vulnerable in 2018, but Democrats haven’t been able to crack this nut in a long time.
(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (40%)
Surprisingly-strong showing in Democratic Primary sets Mitsch Bush up for November.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
District makeup means Buck should be safe here.
(D) Karen McCormick* (30%)↑
Can McCormick win in November? Unlikely, but not impossible.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
Lamborn has this district on lockdown…somehow.
(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (10%)
Incumbent is disliked enough that this is possible, but don’t bet on it.
(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)↓
Coffman in for a dogfight once again.
(D) Jason Crow* (50%)↑
The key to Crow beating Coffman isn’t military background — it’s family image.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (98%)
Nevermind using a pen — you can mark this one down with a Sharpie.
(R) Mark Barrington* (2%)
At least Barrington understands that he has absolutely no chance here.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
If Republicans hold majority here, it will be because 1) they only have a few competitive seats to defend, and 2) the bulk of Republican resources will be directed toward preserving one-seat advantage.
Senate Republicans made a mess out of the 2018 legislative session, giving Democrats plenty of opportunities in November.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Primary results don’t change anything here.
Republicans just hoping to keep margin in single digits after November.
The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2018 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.