The Big Line: 2016

 

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning a particular raceNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or presumed to be running.

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado IN NOVEMBER)

(D) Hillary Clinton* (90%)↓
Some September polls show the race tightening in Colorado. Clinton’ significant field advantage and Trump’s terrible first debate should make Democrats feel better.

(R) Donald Trump* (10%)↓
You know you’re screwed when even Quinnipiac can’t find daylight.

 

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (95%)↑
Prognosticators at the New York Times give Bennet better than 99% chance to win. We won’t go quite that high, but this race is over.

(R) Darryl Glenn* (5%)↓
Glenn continues his long march to obscurity.

 

 


CD-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
After dispatching Chuck Norris in Democratic Primary, re-election is assured.

(R) Casper Stockham* (1%)
Sure, here you go. Whatever.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Polis doesn’t have much to worry about here.

(R) Nic Morse* (5%)↓
We’ll list his name for the record, but Morse destined to be just a minor footnote.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (50%)↓
Public lands issues could make the difference in this race.

(D) Gail Schwartz* (50%)↑
Not much is going wrong for Schwartz in 2016.

 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (95%)
Buck won’t lose in 2016; biggest concern remains a Primary challenge down the road.

(D) Bob Seay* (5%)
Democrats won’t make any effort here.

 


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (95%)↑
After almost getting kicked off the ballot altogether at caucuses, Lamborn rallies for another Primary victory. Won’t have trouble in General Election.

(D) Misty Plowright* (5%)
First transgendered Congressional candidate in U.S. history, but this seat just isn’t winnable for Democrats.

 


CD-6 (AURORA)

(D) Morgan Carroll* (50%)↑
Carroll claims that internal poll in mid-September showed her up 5 points.

(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)↓
Coffman has never been hit this hard, and this often, by a Democratic opponent.

 

 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten every CD-7 challenger by double digits.

(R) George Anthanasopoulos* (10%)
We suppose something weird could happen in Colorado’s most important electoral county, but probably not enough to make a difference here. 

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (50%)
Taking back control of the State Senate is going to be a nail biter.

REPUBLICANS (50%)↑
As expected, Republicans are devoting most of their 2016 resources toward preserving their one-seat majority.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (70%)
Democrats are outperforming GOP in fundraising by a wide margin.

REPUBLICANS (30%)
If Republicans couldn’t take House in 2014 wave year, they aren’t going to do it in 2016.

 


 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2016 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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24 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. FrankUnderwood says:

    I missed the update on the Big Line.  But you left a couple of names out in the presidential race.  Mittens is probably going to give it another go.  Will the third time be the charm?  Probably not, but what else does he have to do but sit around and count his money.   And then there is Jeb…….  That great prognosticator, GW Bush, says there's a 50/50 chance he gets in.  

    That doesn't mean he wins Colorado, but it mixes things up.  If more than one RINO (Christie, Mittens and Jeb) split the ever diminishing moderate vote, it increases the chances that one of the freaks will prevail.

    IMHO, the Colorado GOP should send a delegation to the national convention pledged to support their favorite son, Gordon Klingenschmidt, for president.

  2. mamajama55 says:

    I'd like to see Representative Rhonda Fields run for Senate or for CD6. She would be a formidable candidate.

    I'm enjoying that I won't have to see AC's predictable response.

    • yameniye says:

      No, she is not a formidable candidate.  There is only one person who could run and beat Coffman, Morgan.  Or maybe two, but the other is no longer in politics in Colorado.

      • mamajama55 says:

        Rhonda Fields is formidable in that she has been effective at promoting unabashedly progressive policies, and getting them passed. She needs a  better website editor – there are quite a few embarrassing mispellings and weird spam comments that have been allowed to remain.

        She is a force to be reckoned with in the Denver / Aurora area. Haven't we been discussing what a shame it is that gutsy poliiticians who advocate for real progressive policy change are not supported by the party, are "consulted" to death, and pressured to water down their messages?

        Haven't we all been saying that voters will in fact turn out for strong, progressive candidates with solid economic policy messages? Morgan Carroll may also be formidable, for the same reasons- but I haven't seen that as much as I have seen it with Fields.

    • marklane1351 says:

      How about Morgan Carroll, I was hoping she would make a run last time. I think she could make it interesting. As for other races never let a candidate go unchallenged

    • BlueCat says:

      Did I miss something? What's this about not having to see AC's response?

  3. Conserv. Head Banger says:

    Mike Pence in drag ???  (line on Daryl Glenn running for Senate). What a revolting thought. Unlikely it will happen as good old Mike has been in the hip pocket of the religious right for decades. Of course, who ever thought good old Denny Hastert had "non family values activity" in his closet.

    Regards, C.H.B.   (born & raised in Hoosier Land)

  4. marklane1351 says:

    Colorado republican party is not participating in a presidential or primary. There are no delegates for Republicans to win in Colorado!

  5. davebarnes says:

    04JUL2016

    Update time, people.

    CD-2

    Republican Nicholas Morse
    Libertarian Richard Longstreth
    Green Cliff Willmeng

  6. davebarnes says:

    Time to add all the Lib and Green candidates.

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