New polling numbers out today from oft-questioned national pollster Quinnipiac University show what everyone expects to see right now: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton expanding her lead over Republican Donald Trump:
Independent likely voters shift to Democrat Hillary Clinton, giving her the lead over Republican Donald Trump in the critical swing states of Colorado, Florida, and Pennsylvania and moving her into a tie with Trump in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Clinton also has double-digit leads among women likely voters and leads of 28 to 76 percentage points among non-white voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, show:
Colorado: Clinton tops Trump 45 – 37 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Clinton had 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent September 22…
“Secretary Clinton has held or increased her lead following the second debate,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Obviously the allegations by a number of women about Donald Trump’s behavior have taken a toll among some of those who had been in his column.”
Our experience with Quinnipiac’s polling is that they seem to frequently post outlier results early in the election cycle, often favoring Republican candidates, only to track back closer to polling averages as Election Day approaches. Setting aside scientific variables, there’s a definite PR advantage to announcing dramatic game-changing numbers early in the season–but you don’t want to be the outlier on the day of the election.
This election, perhaps Q-pac has decided not to get caught with their britches down.