Polling from Quinnipiac University this election season has easily been the most erratic of any public pollster. One week ago, Quinnipiac claimed that Gov. John Hickenlooper had erased a 10-point deficit from their early September polling. In fact, the September poll showing Hickenlooper down by 10 points was widely panned as inaccurate even by supporters of Hickenlooper's Republican opponent Bob Beauprez. The result one week ago seemed to us like Quinnipiac walking back their previously outlier results to something closer to polling-consensus reality.
Well folks, if we're to believe Quinnipiac is in any way polling Colorado accurately, the race has flipped completely back around in only a week:
Men are going Republican in a big way in the Colorado governor's race, giving former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger a 45 – 40 percent likely voter lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper, the Democratic incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 4 percent, with 2 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 9 percent are undecided.
This compares to an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing 45 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper and 44 percent for Beauprez…
"Five points down, six days to go. The numbers are tight and the ticking clock is the enemy. Is the wolf at the door for Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper? " asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
Compare that quote with the same Quinnipiac polling director Tim Malloy a week ago:
"Off the mat and clearly building momentum, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper fights off a ten count and enters the final round of the gubernatorial slugfest looking stronger by the day," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Okie dokie then! One of those must be right.
Bottom line: no other polling has shown the kinds of wild swings that Quinnipiac has shown in the Colorado gubernatorial race, or the large leads they have indicated on either side. The fact is, for a host of reasons, we believe the polling this year is less reliable than perhaps any we've seen since we've been covering politics. Quinnipiac's consistently outlier, otherwise entirely inconsistent results could make them the "worst of the worst" in an already bad pack–polling so bad, you'd do better to throw darts at the proverbial map.
Quinnipiac should get in touch with this pollser who says Udall is blowing out Gardner with the hispanic voters:
The Strategies 360 poll puts Udall at 45 percent and Gardner at 44 percent. The poll by the consulting group, which has a Denver office, was not commissioned by any outside group. ... Among Hispanic voters surveyed, Udall leads Gardner 58-26. Hispanic voters
Party's over Cory, be sure to turn out the lights when you leave.
Quinnipiac apparently is bucking for the "Biggest Crap Pollster of 2014" award, particularly where Iowa and Colorado are concerned.
Hey, you can't have Rasmussen, Suffolk and foXX nooZe willing all the pro-GOTP glory! Save some for somebody else!
(And yes, I know Rass has improved a bit this cycle, but prior to now it was "all GOTP all the time, baby!" by ridiculously wide, fraudulent margins.)
I think even the Faux polls are more reliable than Q's.
What's with the overblown cliche-riddled statement from Tim Malloy? Do polling firms typically hype their released in such fevered terms?
He sounds like he's on commission to sell subscriptions.
He should be extremely embarrassed, due to both his breathlessly juvenile writing, and his shameless pro-Pug Party bias.
The underlying message appears to be: "Need a reliably pro-GOP, narrative-driving poll performed? I'm your daddy."
Given that QP is a university polling center, not a private for profit polling outfit, I have no freaking idea. QP does have this interesting trend in their polls:
TREND: Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Hicks feel good, no attack campaign wins again as voters like him the more they see him! Not good news for former Congressman Beauprez as his favorables are falling
Not Q-pac's fault that millions of stoner voters in Colorado are futzing up their scientific and proven polling methods and models . . . Dope, dopes, and mail-in ballots — it's a heretofore never experienced polling nightmare.
Make up your minds people, light up afterwords!
Never trust an academic outfit that doesn't release full polling data.
It's just embarrassing for them to release all these polls that are all over the map one after another, especially with the cheesy commentary. I don't understand it, and I seriously doubt Quinnipiac is going to look good on the other side.