August 01, 2009 10:29 PM UTC

National Journal Ranks CD-4 a Top Seat to Switch Parties.

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• by: J-Rock

On Thursday, the National Journal released its new rankings for the Congressional House Seats most likely to switch hands in 2010.  The top few spots were not much of a surprise; however, Democratic seats did make up the majority of seats on the list.  Colorado’s own Betsy Markey is placed at number 13.  The journal mentions that she has voted with the Democrats on major issues so far and thinks that will be a weakness in the conservative CD-4.  

13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)

In this CD that leans, ever so slightly, to the GOP, Markey has not really been able to separate herself from Democrats on the major votes as other vulnerable incumbents have; she voted with her party on both the stimulus and energy bills. But the health care bill may be the place where she finds some distance from her party, and the DNC is holding a rally in her hometown, trying to convince her to support a health care bill with a public option. The NRCC, though, won’t let her enjoy that distance, as they’re taking her to task over her stimulus vote. But none of this would matter if the GOP didn’t have a candidate, which it does. State Rep. Cory Gardner raised an impressive $205K in the second quarter, nearly catching Markey’s $266K. She still has a healthy $500K on hand, but Gardner’s fundraising start confirms earlier GOP predictions that he’ll run a strong campaign. If he does, he’ll have a good shot at knocking off the freshman.

This analysis is not in line with much of the analysis that has been found here.  In general the community here at Colorado Pols has seen the votes listed in this article as courageous and as votes that will help her distinguish herself and win reelection, Cory Gardner is not seen as a candidate who can win because he is too far right, and NRCC marketing has not been nearly as effective as the article seems to think it was.

See the full list of rankings here: http://www.nationaljournal.com…