(Seems to warrant another off-genre promotion, note that we try not to make a habit of these – promoted by Colorado Pols)
Yes we have crowds this big in America. But we also have a ballot box and by giving people a vote that does decide, a crowd is an affirmation, not a revolt.
But in a dictatorship, crowds this size are a revolt. There is a revolution occuring in Iran. Here’s hoping that it is as peaceful as possible – and that it is successful.
And I am in awe of the people demonstrating in the face of the violence the Iranian state is inflicting upon them.
As always – The Daily Dish & HuffPo
Update: Can someone post updated news in the comments below? I will be way too busy at work (making up for wasted time yesterday) and will not have time to post anything here.
thanks – dave
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from McClatchy
but before we all get TOO excited, lets remember that ALL candidates had to be approved in order to be allowed to run at all and, in Iran, the President and elected government don’t have the ultimate power by a long shot. Even if the reformers ultimately triumph, the level of reform may be a whole lot less than what we dewy eyed American cheer leaders are envisioning.
Yes, this is a heartening show of support for change in Iran. Does it mean that, even in the unlikely event of the best possible outcome, suddenly Iran will no longer be a problem and we’ll all be joining hands as new best buddies? Not so much. We need to come back down from cloud nine and get a grip. Agree this is all pretty exciting, though.
I don’t think anyone’s expecting (at this point) a true reformer to take office, but this has gone beyond the point of simply installing a new President.
Montazeri’s statement is probably better explained in context with this tidbit: the Expediency Council is rumored to be holding an “emergency meeting” today. The Expediency Council is likely meeting to figure out how to put the country back together peacefully, and that may include ousting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameni. Mousavi supporters have been trying to gauge the level of support within the Expediency Council since the election results were announced; the Chair of the council is a Mousavi supporter, and probably would not have called the meeting without knowing in general how it would turn out.
IMHO, even if a new election is held under more transparent voting procedures, and even if Mousavi wins that election, I don’t think Iran will ever be quite the same… This “revolt” is going to demand some political reforms at the top, and the Guardian Council is likely to lose some power in the bargain.
being ousted. I don’t think that’s even in the cards. But this sure has been beyond interesting to watch as it unfolds.
and there is some supreme council that can remove him from the office of “Supreme Leader.” (Unlike the Soviet Union, where the real authority was within the party while the state offices were given to figureheads, they wrote in the office of Supreme Leader as the ultimate head of state.)
Will that happen? Maybe. Khameni is certainly respected but Khomeni, for whom the office was initially created, was nearly seen as a new incarnation of the Prophet when he was alive.
It’s interesting – two of Khomeni’s grandchildren are reformers. (That’s Khomeni, not Khameni.) One has even called for intervention. The old man must be spinning in his grave.
For some reason the Iranians, rather than vesting all power in the Guardian Council, created the Expediency Council to resolve disputes in power and decision-making. It plays little role in everyday government, only coming into play during conflicts.
Montazeri was “supposed” to assume the title of Supreme Leader after Khomeni died, but lost a power struggle to Khameni. In that respect, Khameni’s hold on power is by no means absolute.
The history, the players, all that is unfolding even as I write this…I just find myself engrossed.
Certainly 500,000 is a lot of people.
11:11 AM ET — Huge reformist rally underway. From the Guardian:
More than 500,000 Iranians are silently marching from from Haft-e-Tir Squre to Vali Asr Square, reports Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Tehran.
Mousavi is conservative himself, and he too was approved to run in the election by the guardian council, but he’s gotta be a hell of a lot better than Ahmadinejad, who is the W of Iran.
The main thing that is very heartening, and something we should not forget, is that the guardian council is listening to the will of the Iranian people.
they’d damn well better listen, that this thing has legs. So some degree of change IS coming. Just think we need to be careful of imagining a cuddly relationship with a Jeffersonian Democratic Iran any time soon. Lost in the past couple of news cycles is sufficient attention to the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanese elections. Pretty clear that Obama IS responsible for at least SOME positive movement in relations with the Muslim world.
and I don’t really think that is the issue.
However, if it has better relations with the West, and is more responsive to the needs of its people, and less repressive, then theocracy or not that is a huge step. I think this is what you’re getting at anyway.
….Iran had a democracy (1950), they nationalized the oil fields (ending BP’s long-held concession). BP was able to get Ike to believe that, under the newly elected president, Iran was a communist “domino” waiting to fall. Ike sent in the CIA to orchstate an overthrow of the president and install the Shah. BP got some of their concession back, US oil companies got more. You probably know the story from there.
They’re not completely tone-deaf or they wouldn’t have called for a partial recount, but I’m not sure I’d call what they’ve done so far “listening”.
I bet that the election stands, and policy changes only modestly.
Protests might increase on the regime to renounce nuclear weapons if the the Iran Refined Petroleum Products Sanctions Act passes.
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does it commit US Forces to fight Likud’s battles in its quest for “Greater Israel,” if the Grand Ayatullah refuses to cede territory to Jerusalem ?
Like the Iraq Liberation Act, or the Syria Liberation Act, which, it turns out, had little to do with “Liberation ?”
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It tells foriegn businesses that until Iran renounces it’s pursuit of a nuke that they Presdident has the power to make them choose between doing business with the USA economy, or Iran’s.
It’s designed to increase social unrest in Iran to get the current regime to change it’s policy about nuclear weapons.
should really spell check
Note: I figure if they can continue protesting in the face of this, we can handle the videos of what they are facing.
This has to be worrisome for the regime. Because if they order the police in and the police refuse to go, then the revolution has succeeded.
Because once they find out, it may be that they’ve lost, it can make the regime reticent to order the police in. And if they are afraid to do so, again, they’ve lost.
from the NY Times
And from someone in Iran
Look at the faces of most of them and see how young they are. God bless ’em.
Numerous posts – looks like the protests are, if anything, growing. But it also looks like the violence has been scaled back a bit.
The NY Times has had some of the best reporting in Iran. But the part I find myself returning to is The Lede and not their articles. There is a place for thoughtful analysis. And there is a place for big picture professional reporting.
But I find getting all the grimy details myself, as it happens, a lot more interesting. And I may do a worse job than a reporter with 20 years experience pulling together what matters. But I prefer getting all the pieces myself.
At the same time, the blog posts and immediate videos from the professional reporters are great. Some of the best pieces of information.
Which leads me to the conclusion that the MSM has a future for reporters. But it may not have one for editors.
Fark (whatever that is).
as of Thursday morning:
If this produces a sea change, look to other dictatorships to cancel modern telecommunications services.
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As it would destroy their economy. And Iran is plugged in to the world’s economy (unlike North Korea).
are giving President Obama heat over not “doing more” to support the protesters. That probably wouldn’t be a good idea, Iranians won’t view American intervention as a good thing.
From Michael Totten
All we can do is watch what’s going on and hope for the best result, whatever that turns out to be.
Iran is extremely suspicious of the West in regards to their trade and their government. It’s not just the US that’s been poking them about human rights, trade, Iraq, etc. The EU countries have meddled about in Iran’s internal & trade affairs as well.
If there’s even a HINT that the Reformists have Western help, they’re sunk. They’ll be mercilessly targeted by the Government forces, and the resulting crackdown will be seen as a defense against the “Godless Crusader Stooges.”
It also has an effect with the rest of the Arab world – if the US & UK jump in and help the Reformists topple the current Iranian Government, The House of Saud is going to look quite dimly at the results. Giving their Reformist/Revolutionary citizens any ideas about revolt would sink our dysfunctional relationship with that dictatorship…and a resulting spike in Oil Prices, and drop in oil supply.
The President and the Brit Prime Minister are doing the right thing…it sucks, but it’s the right thing.
If this were happening with Cheney and Bush’s saber rattling and harsh rhetoric it would be easy for the establishment to turn the protesters into tools of the great American Satan. Even most of those who feel the election was stolen and want reform don’t want to have their internal affairs manipulated by the US. That’s what crushed democracy and brought the Ayatollahs to power in the first place, after all.
See my post above for insight into why Iran is extremely suspicious of US.
that are being lobbed at Obama are yet another lesson in the immaturity and cluelessness of that school of thought–as if the post-invasion shit show in Iraq wasn’t evidence enough.
Everyone with a dose of common sense and some knowledge of the history of US-Iran relations will know that the official intervention of the US Government would completely undermine this uprising, legitimize Ahmadinejad’s & Khameini’s rule, and would give them cover to crank up a Tiananmen-scale repression.
I agree non-Colorado diaries should rarely be promoted. But something this major – yes!
thanks.
The Iranian team is in World Cup playoffs this morning against South Korea (and soccer is life in Iran). Note the wristbands
from Robert Fisk – ABC News
The picture in the main body of the diary is not Tehran, it’s Isfahan. We haven’t seen pictures, but rumors are that Shiraz and other major Iranian cities have been much the same.
I share the excitement. And I agree with much that has been offered. I think Mousavi won’t be that different policy-wise. My dream is that Khameni is replaced with a progressive, but I think that’s unlikely.
This is no longer in the control of anyone at the top, not even Mousavi. Different people have levels of influence, but this radically changes the game.
I think the people will demand a change in the constitution to make it a true democracy. The supreme council may become their supreme court, but the ability to void laws is a lot less than running the country and selecting candidates.
We have to wait and see how it plays out, but I think there will be much more change than Mousavi wants.
He would ban the thugs of the Basij, for example, and favors more freedoms for the people. However as far as the U.S. and Israel are concerned, still the Great and Little Satans.
Sometimes you have to have a Gorbachev before you get to the Yeltsin.
This was one of the more interesting items on my Twitter follow list today, courtesy of Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-MI:
“Iranian twitter activity similar to what we did in House last year when Republicans were shut down in the House.”
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
If this continues the government falls. It can’t stay in charge in the face of opposition this large.
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then the regime would be in trouble.
5 down, 9 to go.
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