May 19, 2009 08:26 PM UTC

Big Line Updated

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• by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated The Big Line, and here’s a quick rundown of how we see things shaping up at this point…

GOVERNOR

Make no mistake – this is still Gov. Bill Ritter’s race to lose. But that doesn’t mean he won’t lose it, because his base isn’t exactly energized to help him in 2010. Ritter’s biggest advantage is the same one he had in 2006 – there’s no Republican candidate with united support from the right who looks strong enough to win.

On paper, former Rep. Scott McInnis is the strongest GOP candidate, but he’s already made several stupid mistakes and is walking a thin line between legal and illegal in refusing to file the appropriate paperwork making him a candidate. Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry has not yet made his intentions known for 2010, but is all but a lock (right now, at least) to run for governor.

Penry is a very slight favorite to win a primary with McInnis, but that all depends on his ability to raise money. While McInnis is a proven fundraiser, Penry has not yet shown an ability to attract the big donors that he’ll need to win a primary, let alone to beat Ritter. While Penry appears certain to run for governor at this point, we wouldn’t be surprised if an inability to raise money forces him to bow out of the race before it really begins.

In a general election, McInnis is the better candidate because he is more moderate, more well-known, and not in his early 30s. Penry’s youth probably wouldn’t be a problem if he ran for the U.S. Senate, where there are checks and balances already, but voters will have a hard time deciding to put the entire state in the hands of someone as young as Penry.

U.S. SENATE

The honeymoon is over (if it ever really happened) for Sen. Michael Bennet, who can’t continue to duck important issues and needs to learn how to campaign more effectively. Bennet won’t have a problem raising money, but he’s been shaky on the stump and will have a hard time attracting volunteers because of both a lack of charisma and his refusal to take a position on several issues important to Democrats. Bennet is not a natural campaigner and seems almost uncomfortable in group atmospheres, but he has one humongous advantage heading into 2010: The Republican field sucks.

Neither Weld County D.A. Ken Buck nor Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier are anything but darkhorse candidates at this point. Neither candidate is well known, even among their base, and neither is likely to be able to be competitive in fundraising with Bennet. Unless the Republicans come up with different candidates, everything would have to go right for them to win back this seat in 2010; anything short of a best-case scenario won’t get it done for the GOP. In fact, Bennet’s biggest concern is probably a primary challenge, which seems less likely by the day.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican John Suthers is the only statewide incumbent without a declared opponent, and Democrats continue to wait for Adams County D.A. Don Quick to make a decision. Quick has been coy to this point, but he needs to make a decision, er, quickly, for Democrats to start putting together a campaign. Suthers has raised a good deal of money, but he is virtually charisma-free and is still a beatable candidate.

STATE TREASURER

Three Republicans are vying for the right to take on incumbent Democrat Cary Kennedy, but we don’t see any of them ultimately beating her. Kennedy is popular and has not made any real mistakes; the only way she loses is if the economy gets significantly worse in 2010 and voters decide to lash out by punishing the incumbent.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republican Scott Gessler doesn’t have much to run on, as evidenced by his rambling, eye-bleedingly boring email that he sent out last week. It’s hard to see how a bland, extremely-partisan candidate can beat a more charismatic and moderate incumbent in Bernie Buescher.

CD-3

Incumbent Democrat John Salazar is popular, moderate, well-funded and a sitting member of the House Appropriations Committee. Little-known Republican D.A. Martin Beeson isn’t winning this race.

CD-4

Democrat Betsy Markey continues to make smart decisions by casting votes that will be viewed favorably by her district. Her votes against the bailout legislation make her appear more moderate and take away a key attack that a Republican opponent would use.

On the Republican side, a crowded primary is tough to handicap this early. State Rep. Cory Gardner might have been the favorite a few years ago, but the bulk of the voters are now further away in Larimer County and more familiar with local candidates like Tom Lucero and Diggs Brown. With that said, the field isn’t even close to being set, and the eventual winner may not even be in the race yet.

What do you think of our Big Line changes? Comment away…