Ritter Faces Uphill Battle in 2010 with McInnis Looking Strong in New PPP Poll

(Why is this poll valid any more than the Senate poll?   – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Though many of the lefty Polsters will poo poo on this poll, it is valid and interesting nevertheless.  So without further adieu, here are some highlights to the Public Policy Polling survey done on Governor Bill Ritter.

In January, Ritter had a positive approval rating of 47 percent (with 40 percent disapproving).  This has since shifted and currently falls in at 41 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving (with 9 percent undecided).

Of note, Ritter is not doing well among Hispanic voters who may be unhappy that he did not pick one of them to follow Salazar. His approval rating among Hispanics is 47 percent negative, 46 percent positive.

When pitted against potential Republican opponents:

Former Rep. Scott McInnis leads Ritter 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided even though 40 percent of voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to only 9 percent who don’t know enough about Ritter.

Ritter leads State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry by 42 percent to 40 percent with 18 percent undecided, but that’s within the poll’s 3 point margin of error.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

42 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. redstateblues says:

    But my assessment the other day that it’s still Ritter’s race to lose may have been off the mark. If the Governor’s internal polling is confirming the PPP poll’s statistics, then his campaign has a lot of work to do.

    If anything, this should serve as a much-needed wake up call for Ritter and his team. If they want to win in 2010, then they have to do better than they’ve been doing.

  2. rocco says:

    Please make it true.

    Next to Caplis, McCinnis is the candidate easiest to run against. (Assuming Bothways is through).

    With Caplis, it’s his mouth.

    With Mccinnis, it’s his history.  

  3. Karate Kid says:

    Two figures to look at:

    1.  His job approval rating of 41/49 is downright bad.

    2.  Against either Republican he gets just over 40%.  

    That means that nearly 60% of Colorado voters are disinclined (doesn’t mean they won’t, just means they aren’t inclined) to reelect the guy.

    While it’s early for certain, numbers like these would doom a lot of Democrats in the legislature as well.

    • Ralphie says:

      He’s right on this point.

      Ritter’s number is the only one that matters.

      • Republican 36 says:

        The Governor’s internal polls have him with a two to one favorable rating and that hasn’t changed since January when it was 58% favorable and 28% unfavorable. In other words 2 to 1, right where he should be.

        PPP did a poll on the cheap and the results show it.

        • Karate Kid says:

          You just busted your boss.  I assume you are telling the truth and that you are privy to the Governor’s political inner circle.  His campaign filings show NO payments for polling in the last 2 filings.  Who paid for the polls?  Some union or nonprofit group?  That would be a violation of the law.  One would think that a D.A. would have more respect for the law.  Sure hope any of you press folk reading this look into this.

          • ClubTwitty says:

            Who paid for the polls?  Some union or nonprofit group?  That would be a violation of the law.  One would think that a D.A. would have more respect for the law.

            What else you got up there that you are going to pull out?  

          • ColoDem says:

            Don’t forget that a number of legitimate pollsters routinely throw in questions about Ritter and other elected officials when polling in Colorado.

            Just because the Ritter campaign itself didn’t pay for the poll doesn’t mean the numbers aren’t valid.  

            The telephone push-button polls are worthless.  I am disappointed the Post and bloggers on this site are treating them as credible.

            Everyone should take a deep breath and wait for a valid poll before jumping to conclusions about Ritter, Bennet, etc.

            • Republican 36 says:

              ColoDem is correct and I stand by the numbers I cited above. The Post editorial yesterday is based on the assumption the PPP poll is correct. It isn’t, no even close. For example, PPP asserts that Sen. Bennet has 75% name ID after only three months in office. That is nonsense on its face.

              The methodology employed by PPP is the cheap and inaccurate way to conduct a poll. By far the best polls still use the tried and true phone calls to a representative sample of registered voters where the individual calling for the polling firm actually makes direct contact with the registered voter. Gov. Ritter’s 58% positive to 28% negative is just such a poll.

  4. Taxosaurus says:

    It wasn’t planned that way, but it might happen. No one can justify the appointment of Mike Bennett – aside from “the smartest guy in the room” strangeness. Had Ritter shown any sense, he would have gone with Hick, and Hick could have saved Ritter. Remember, Bill Ritter got his political training as a DA. Dumb Ass. Hick knows stuff. Betcha Hick isn’t front-and-center on either the Ritter or Bennett campaign.

    Update The Big Line for 2010:

    R-Gov (McGinnis)

    R-US Senate (Whoever)

    R-4th CD (Whoever)

  5. Half Glass Full says:

    Ritter will win handily over McInnis, Beauprez or whomever unless he royally screws up something.

    Same goes for Bennet against that rather pathetic Republican line-up.

    (Ken Buck? Get serious.)

  6. DavidThi808 says:

    Bennet’s numbers are good. He’s an unknown to most of the state so basically it’s party identification and so is about as expected for that. Over the next year he will almost certainly improve that between votes, statements, and additional meet & greets.

    Ritter’s numbers are a bit more worrisome. I think this may be that people don’t see Ritter taking the lead on the economy. (We can aregue all day here if he has or hasn’t – what’s key is what most people think.)

    On the plus side, no one blames him for the economy (except some brain-dead Repubs who would never vote for him regardless). He’s the incumbent and has made to big mistakes.

    I’d feel a lot better if people were excited about something Ritter had done. SO this race does worry me a bit.

    • RedGreen says:

      Indeed, we can. But I think you’re assuming a far higher level of interest and involvement among the general population in an election that’s still more than 16 months off.

      Stop folks on the street and ask whether they think “Ritter is taking the lead on the economy” and you’ll get blank stares from 90 percent, unless you’re within a block of the Capitol.

      PPP did fine with its polls last fall (using pretty much the same methods), but that was because interest in and familiarity with the election was at a record high. Hardly anyone is paying that much attention to Udall, Bennet, Ritter, much less Penry and McInnis, these days, and to draw all these conclusions is crazy.

  7. davidsbane says:

    Bill Ritter ran as a “New Democrat” a “Western Democrat” reflecting the “Mainstream” of Colorado.

    The more the voters see of him…the more he looks like an “Old Democrat”.  That is when he’s not making a fool of himself and his administration.  I mean really, why wouldn’t you pick up the phone and TALK to the Speaker of the House about giving remarks from the podium of the House on the anniversary of Columbine before you send out a media advisory?

    Maybe he should sign up for the Graduate level course at DU taught by Dick Lamm and Bill Owens, he might actually learn how to be, well, gubernatorial.

    Maybe appointing people to your cabinet or the US Senate who AREN’T from Denver?  Maybe showing up a scheduled events in GJ in spite of a handful of protestors?

    Bill Ritter is a very nice, decent man.  I have nothing but respect for him personally.  As a politician, he’s below average.  As a chief executive he’s out of his depth.  In 18 months he’s going to be able to ride off into the sunset on his 4 acre “ranch”.

  8. MrPresident says:

    McInnis will win this race.  Ritter is an amateur, with his finger always in the wind, unsure to take a position.

    McInnis has the experience, personality and integrity to serve this state as Governor.

    • gertie97 says:

      But that’s obviously been no bar to higher office.

    • A-bob says:

      If the Republicans can actually forget to be stupid like they usually are and don’t give Penry the nom.

      • DavidThi808 says:

        It’s a bit more questionable in his case because of his lack of experience, but I think he has the potential. We also have to keep in mind that Beauprez and Schaffer both were total disasters. We can’t count on that in ’10.

      • ColoDem says:

        How much did McInnis pay his wife from campaign funds?  I can just see the commercials now.

        I am also waiting for the “lawyer-lobbyist” hit.  McInnis is earning big bucks at the very same Washington, D.C.-based law firm that once employed none other than Tom Strickland.  Setting aside Hogan’s excellent reputation, it’s also the same professional home of Ted Trimpa, Tim Gill’s lawyer and one of the top lobbyists in town.  Some of the dollars Trimpa earns for the firm end up in McInnis’s pocket.

        Wait, it gets better — can’t you see Penry’s TV commercials attacking McInnis for his affiliation with “homosexual activist” Tim Gill?

        Final primary result:  Penry 54%, McInnis 46% (at most)

        General election result:  Ritter 57%, Penry 43%

        • One Queer Dude says:

          Remember, McLobbyist and Ritter are both alumni of Hogan & Hartson.  Is either guy going to accuse the other of working for a law firm that represents dirtbags?

  9. WestSloper says:

    Fighting fair won’t win elections in 2010.

    This tainted poll maneuver is the least of Ritter’s worries. Oil and gas interests have painted a huge target on his back and will spend millions (and millions) to defeat him.

    Republican operatives know that it isn’t how you play the game (Rules? What rules?) — it’s all about winning. Democrats haven’t faired well in that arena. The illegal below-the-belt campaign hits against Western Slope Democratic county commissioner candidates in 2008 and state reps like Bernie Buescher were just a warm-up.

    Ritter’s campaign strategists should be studying the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel on how his every move is scrutinized and regurgitated by the Right. It’s not hard to spot the campaign fodder. Propaganda is winning over truth. (Rush 101: same lie told five times = one fact.)

    Lots of money and unscrupulous campaign tactics….Ritter is facing a very bloody governor’s race. The well-equipped army behind the faceless Republican opponent is already in motion. The funds leftover from the successful battle against Amendment 48 (that would have ended major tax deductions for the oil and gas industry) are allegedly fueling 527-type spin-offs.

    In preparation for the 2010 election, currently the Democrats are bringing knives to a gunfight.

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