Monday Open Thread

8 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

1. Trump +1 in Colorado

   New CNN poll released this morning.

   http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/26/relco1.pdf

   NIce.

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   1. Only if you count only male voters are these numbers accurate. Otherwise, "likely voters" sample was skewed Republican 2 pts, leading to Trump +1. Rregistered voter crosstabs  all have Clinton up at least 1.

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      1. I may be reading it wrong, but it also appears that they had very few respondents under 35 or people of color. The sample size was too small to report results with a margin of error.

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2. The polls seem to be all over the place. Contrast the CNN poll showing Trump up one with the Colorado Mesa University/Rocky Mountain PBS poll from last week showing Clinton up by 9. 

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3. What Hillary Clinton Needs To Say

   Despite a widespread consensus (including, reportedly, one former Republican president of the United States) that Trump has neither the professional nor temperamental chops for the White House, the race remains close. So close that, according to a report in 538.com by the Cook Political Report’s number-crunching wizard, David Wasserman, thanks to our constitutional appendix of an Electoral College, a shift in a few key states could put Trump in White House even if he loses the popular vote

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4. A good article by Allen Best, centric to Yuma County…

   Land of the Free Trade 

   But Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, presents an intellectual problem for the region. He has broadly blamed globalization for losses in middle America and the middle class. “Our politicians have aggressively pursued a policy of globalization—moving our jobs, our wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas,” he said in a June speech in Pennsylvania, later adding, “NAFTA was the worst trade deal in the history—it’s, like, the history—of this country—and China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization has enabled the greatest jobs theft in history.”

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5. Having just returned from Mountain Harvest Festival in beautiful Paonia CO, I have two things to say.

   One…. I feel deeply sorry for anyone who didn't make the trip to Paonia from Denver, especially including McClure's pass. The fall color viewing was absolutely spectacular with lots of scrub oak in russet to magenta mixed with the Aspen over McClure's. On our side the more uniform vistas of Aspen are showing lots of patches of flame among the yellow. Best leaf viewing ever! 

   Two… Some of the Big Line odds are more laughable now than ever. I mean seriously. Who's in charge? Pollyanna? 

   That said, I'm not recommending giving up just yet. While it's shocking that Trump is even still viable that doesn't mean he's going to win. Fingers crossed and hang on, everyone! But 85/15 for HRC? 50/50 for Morgan Carroll?  What color is the sky on the planet where these odds are calculated?

   Now the night sky over Paonia…. that's just incredible. Forgot what a starry night really looks like. Wow! Oh, and our B&B had a vineyard. And alpacas. Festival was great. Really nice break from all of this scary stuff. And lots of Dem signs in town. Wish I could say I was happy to be back! And now…. the debate! Yikes! This is scary!

    

    

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6. I see The Big Line has adjusted Trump/Clinton a bit but still stubbornly refuses to give Carroll less than a 50% chance of wining. Seriously.

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