December 17, 2008 07:24 PM UTC

Rocky Rips Off Big Line for Senate Odds

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We’ve updated The Big Line, with explanations here.

Damn, we don’t ask for much – just a little credit where credit is due if you’re going to rip off the Big Line idea.

You can read the full Rocky Mountain News line after the jump. We’ll be updating the Big Line shortly, but the race is really about four people: John Hickenlooper, Ed Perlmutter, Andrew Romanoff and John Salazar. The rest of the field is window dressing.

The Rocky talked to a variety of Colorado politicos who handicapped the cast of potential successors to U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, when he joins President-elect Barack Obama’s cabinet and resigns his seat.

3-1

John Hickenlooper

Occupation: Denver mayor

Age: 56

Residence: Denver

Pro: Hickenlooper polls well among unaffiliated voters, and has a business background that could appeal to cross-over Republicans. He’s been a popular mayor and hasn’t alienated other suburban mayors. He’s constantly being chosen Best this or Best that.

Con: City workers consider him short-tempered, and some question whether his reputation matches up to reality.

Of note: In February of 2003, a poll showed him receiving only 6 percent of the vote in a wide open field of mayoral candidates. He went to win in a landslide.

Domino effect: Per Denver’s charter there are several scenarios, but Denver residents likely would see a crowded field of candidates on the May ballot seeking to succeed Hickenlooper.

What Hickenlooper says: “Until (Salazar) should choose to leave his post in the Senate, it would be premature to speculate on who might replace him.”

4-1

Ed Perlmutter

Occupation: Congressman from the 7th District

Age: 55

Residence: Golden

Pro: Perlmutter has blown out the competition in both of his congressional races. His district includes portions of Arapahoe and Jefferson, which are key to winning statewide. Plus, he has a reputation as a work horse.

Con: He has both a state Senate and congressional record for Republicans to track, and he’s considered too union friendly for the GOP. He’s also not as well known in rural areas.

Domino effect: Although the 7th has gone Democrat the last two elections it still is a swing district and Republicans would have a chance of picking up the seat during a special election.

What Perlmutter says: “I’m interested. I could hit the ground running. I’ve worked on the banking crisis, renewable energy, veterans issues. I think I’m the right guy for this.”

6-1

John Salazar

Occupation: congressman from the 3rd District

Age: 55

Residence: Manassa

Pro: The older brother of Ken Salazar, John is known for being down to earth. He has statewide name recognition and likely would energize Hispanic voters just as his brother did in his 2004 Senate race.

Con: Do voters want a Salazar dynasty? At the state Republican Convention in Broomfield in May, an attendee jokingly refer to the them as the “Kennedys of Antonito.”

Domino effect: His appointment would cause a special election in the 3rd District, and most pundits predict a Republican would win because of the GOP voter registration. However, if state Sen. Josh Penry runs and wins, Ritter knocks out one of his biggest critics and a potential opponent in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

What Salazar says: He couldn’t be reached for comment.

9-1

Andrew Romanoff

Occupation: Speaker of the state House, who leaves in January because of term limits

Age: 42

Residence: Denver

Pro: Romanoff, also a possibility for secretary of state, has good ideas, so much so that former GOP Gov. Bill Owens borrowed his proposal on how to help relieve the budget crisis. He’s known throughout the state because of campaigning for various ballot measures. And he has a reputation for surrounding himself with strong staffers (Cary Kennedy was his chief of staff when became speaker).

Con: Does a single guy and his dog sell in Lamar?

Domino effect: None.

What Romanoff says: “It’s very flattering. I would like to find a way to make a contribution to my state so I would be happy to serve in any capacity the governor deems fit.”

25-1

Federico Peña

Occupation: managing director at Vestar Capital Partners, a private equity firm

Age: 61

Residence: Denver

Pro: Peña has extensive national experience, having served as the secretary of transportation and energy under President Bill Clinton. He was one of Obama’s national co-chairs and would have an in at the White House.

Con: Although minority activists would love to see Peña get the appointment, many Democrats don’t think he’s the least bit interested.

Domino effect: None.

What Peña says: His spokesman said he was unavailable for comment.

35-1

Bernie Buescher

Occupation: state representative

Age: 59

Residence: Grand Junction

Pro: Rural voters wouldn’t mind seeing someone outside the metro area get the nod.

Buescher has a moderate voting record and understands government budgets inside and out.

Con: Buescher was in line to be the powerful speaker, but lost his re-election bid in November in the heavily Republican House district.

Domino effect: None

Of note: Buescher’s on Ritter’s short list to be appointed secretary of state. That appointment likely will occur before any vacancy in the Senate happens.

What Buescher says: “I have not talked to the governor’s office about this, but it’s an honor to have my name mentioned.”

35-1

Cary Kennedy

Occupation: State treasurer

Age: 40

Residence: Denver

Pro: Finally, Colorado would have a woman in the U.S. Senate. And anyone who has ever worked with Kennedy describes her as one of the smartest and most innovative people they have ever met.

Con: Republicans believed she has tried to dismantle the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR and likely would go after her on that issue.

Domino effect: Democrats could lose the treasurer’s seat. Kennedy is up for re-election in 2010 and an incumbent has a better chance than an appointee.

What Kennedy says: “I’ll certainly talk about it with my family. Our children are still young, they’re 9 and 11. The concern for me would be making sure I would be there for them.”

55-1

Alice Madden

Occupation: House majority leader; she leaves in January because of term limits

Age: 50

Residence: Boulder

Pro: Madden’s got great political instincts, and is credited with Democrats capturing the legislature in 2004 – they hadn’t been in charge since 1962.

Con: She’s got a voting record Republicans will hammer, but her addres makes her an unlikely choice. She lives 10 miles from Mark Udall, who managed to get elected to the U.S. Senate in November despite being labeled a “Boulder liberal.” Few think that will happen twice.

Domino effect:None.

What Madden says: She couldn’t be reached for comment

60-1

Diana DeGette

Occupation: congresswoman from the 1st District:

Age: 51

Residence: Denver

Pro: She’ll be the dean of the Colorado delegation next year, and has been instrumental in pushing stem cell research legislation.

Con: DeGette has a higher profile nationally – from hearings on Enron to tainted food – than in Colorado. A number of Democrats don’t believe she can win outside Denver.

Domino effect: The 1st District is safe for Democrats. Her appointment, though, would likely cause a free for all among Denver Democrats vying for the seat.

DeGette: She couldn’t be reached for comment.

60-1

Peter Groff

Occupation: Senate president

Age: 45

Residence: Denver

Strengths: Groff is easy to get along with, one of the legislature’s best orators and has the distinction of being the the first black elected to lead the Senate.

Weaknesses: He’s not been considered a strategic Senate president . And he has a voting record that Republicans likely will rip apart. He sponsored a bill that would have allowed employees to leave work to attend their children’s school events, a proposal deemed so anti-business that Democrats helped kill it.

Domino effect: The Senate would get its third Senate president in three years.

What Groff says: He couldn’t be reached for comment.

60-1

Tom Strickland

Occupation: executive vice president and chief legal director at Minnesota’s UnitedHealth Group, a health insurance firm

Age: 56

Residence: Splits his time between Denver and Minneapolis.

Pro: He’s smart and knows national issues, particularly health care. He served as Colorado U.S. attorney, a post he once called the best job he ever held.

Con: Strickland lost his 1996 and 2002 Senate bids to Republican Wayne Allard.

Fallout: Some Democrats cringe at the idea of Strickland on the ballot again, and the GOP chair, Dick Wadhams, constantly referring to him as a “lawyer/lobbyist,” which Wadhams did in the other races.

Of note: Strickland hired Ritter to work at his law firm, Hogan & Hartson, after Ritter left the district attorney’s office because of term limits.

Strickland: He couldn’t be reached for comment.

200-1

Bill Ritter

Occupation: governor

Age: 52

Residence: Denver

Pro: He won by an astounding 17 percent of the vote in his first gubernatorial race in 2006. Ritter gets kudos for going to things and visiting communities statewide. City Auditor Dennis Gallagher once pointed out that Ritter just doesn’t stop by a solider’s funeral, Ritter quite often stays for the whole ceremony.

Con: Ritter has alienated the business community for allowing state workers to unionize, and he has been at odds with oil and gas interests who will pour oodles of money into a race against him.

Domino effect: Voters traditionally don’t like politicians who appoint themselves to other jobs. He could lose in 2010, and Democrats could lose the governor’s seat, too.

What Ritter says: He’s not saying anything.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

55-1

Alice Madden

Occupation: House majority leader; she leaves in January because of term limits

Age: 50

Residence: Boulder

Pro: Madden’s got great political instincts, and is credited with Democrats capturing the legislature in 2004 – they hadn’t been in charge since 1962.

Con: She’s got a voting record Republicans will hammer, but her address makes her an unlikely choice. She lives 10 miles from Mark Udall, who managed to get elected to the U.S. Senate in November despite being labeled a “Boulder liberal.” Few think that will happen twice.

Domino effect: None.

60-1

Peter Groff

Occupation: Senate president

Age: 45

Residence: Denver

Strengths: Groff is easy to get along with, one of the legislature’s best oratorsand has the distinction of being the the first black elected to lead the Senate.

Weaknesses: He’s not been considered a strategic Senate president what does that mean. And he has a voting record that Republicans likely will rip apart. He sponsored a bill that would have allowed employees to leave work to attend their children’s school events, a proposal deemed so anti-business that Democrats helped kill it.

Domino effect: The Senate would get its third Senate president in three years.

60-1

Tom Strickland

Occupation: Executive vice president and chief legal director at Minnesota’s UnitedHealth Group, a health insurance firm

Age: 56

Residence: Splits his time between Denver and Minneapolis.

Pro: He’s smart and knows national issues, particularly health care. He served as Colorado U.S. attorney, a post he once called the best job he ever held.

Con: Strickland lost his 1996 and 2002 Senate bids to Republican Wayne Allard.

Fallout: Some Democrats cringe at the idea of Strickland on the ballot again, and the GOP chair, Dick Wadhams, constantly referring to him as a “lawyer/lobbyist,” which Wadhams did in the other races.