November 16, 2008 07:09 PM UTC

Hard Choices Confront Mark Hillman

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• by: Colorado Pols

Figuring out who goes where in the aftermath of the GOP’s defeats this election is like putting a puzzle together where the pieces have a delicate order of assembly in addition to the pattern–or nothing fits.

The situation confronting potential challengers for the newly-blue CD-4 seat is a good place to start. Every prominent Republican who lives in that district–and one or two who don’t–is now trying to figure out if they have a viable shot at challenging Rep.-elect Betsy Markey in 2010, and the demographics suggest that any road back for the GOP begins by retaking this longtime safe seat.

The Colorado Statesman reported late last week that, following a bit of a tussle over the election of GOP state House leadership, current chairman Dick Wadhams “praised” Rep. Cory Gardner–after Gardner’s maneuvers for a better leadership post were essentially punked–as an “outstanding leader” with an eye on the CD-4 seat. It’s no secret that Gardner has been angling for this seat ever since it became evident that outgoing Rep. Marilyn Musgrave was finally going to lose it, but he’s hardly the biggest name on the list of potential candidates.

Apart from former CD-4 Rep. Bob Schaffer himself, the strongest Republican contender for the seat in 2010 is agreed by many to be former state Sen. Mark Hillman, who lost his statewide race in 2006 but has remained a prominent figure in the Colorado GOP through a steady drumbeat of printed opinion columns–like John Andrews but less nutty–and heavy behind-the-scenes involvement. People who know him say he is very much interested.

But there’s another very prominent, good paying job on the edge of coming up for grabs—Dick Wadhams’ job, the subject of wide-ranging speculation after this year’s historic ass-kicking for the GOP at the polls. The playing field for challengers to Wadhams seems to be moving upward–sources tell us small-time operatives who have made various lists, however ambitious, would be ruthlessly squashed by Wadhams–although Scott McInnis ally Mike Hesse is notably talking to Politicker like he’s got game. Charismatic insurgent choices with promise like Denver chair Mary Smith are under obvious pressure to defer, lest they get sucked into Wadhams’ vortex of back-stabbing intrigue.

Which is key to this whole business. Wadhams has the power to deal out the party’s “blessing” for basically every 2010 race; a critical factor as he seeks continued employment. This is not to be underestimated however uncouth it may seem. Wadhams demonstrated his willingness to both favor candidates and make loaded promises with hard-nosed audacity in the last election.

Who could come out on top of a Byzantine showdown where Wadhams makes the rules? The disaffected evangelical wing has a name with gravitas: former US Senator Bill Armstrong has been mentioned as a potential suitor for Wadhams’ job, though Armstrong put a great deal of personal capital into his son Wil’s CD-6 race, which tanked rather embarrassingly. And the risk of an ideological civil war between the “old” and “new” guards if he waded in would be great. Despite these complications, Armstrong is about as close to an unsullied elder statesman as the Colorado GOP has at this point.

We’re not sure if we put any stock in this, but an influential Republican friend of ours mentioned Focus on the Family political director Tom Minnery as a choice under consideration for re-energizing conservatives. Many of the ideological divisions that Armstrong would bring to the table would…well, obviously be a problem for Minnery too. But don’t discount the possibility of the evangelical wing of the party jumping into the fray with all the scorched-earth gusto they can muster up, which if you haven’t payed attention the last three decades is a lot.

Which brings us back to Mark Hillman. Hillman has done well to keep himself viable in the two years since he lost his last election. He’s a solid conservative but not a wedge-issue dependent one: Hillman is much more comfortable discussing TABOR than gay marriage. We’re inclined to think that Hillman would rather be a Congressman than party chairman, even though thanks to Wadhams they pay about the same now. But if Hillman gets a sense his preferred door is closing–or more to the point being closed by Wadhams, part of a grand strategy to appease enough angry people to keep the chairmanship?

Yeah, that would get our blood up too.