October 19, 2008 04:37 AM UTC

Obama Leads McCain 52-45 In Colorado

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• by: redstateblues

From Rasmussen Reports:

Barack Obama has inched further ahead of John McCain in the battleground state of Colorado where he now leads 52% to 45%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

Last week Obama led McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. One month earlier, McCain was ahead by two. [rsb emphasis]

If that wasn’t bad enough, McCain is getting killed in the two demographic groups that helped George W. Bush carry Colorado in 2004–women and independents. He’s even losing among men, although he is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- four points.

Obama is supported by 93% of the state’s Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of GOP voters and six percent (6%) of Democrats support McCain. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters by 17 points.

McCain has lost ground among men voters, who now support Obama 49% to 47%. The Democrat leads among women by 11 points. [rsb emphasis]

Even if McCain wins all of the other red states where he is currently trailing, tied, or slightly ahead in the polls (VA, NC, FL, MO, OH, and NV) he absolutely must win Colorado to get to 270 electoral votes. To use a phrase that has been exceedingly popular this election cycle: Colorado is a game-changer.

Another poll (conducted simultaneously) also gives some insight into the US Senate race between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer.

Democrat Mark Udall has opened a seven-point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s race for the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Udall ahead 51% to 44%. [rsb emphasis]

This is pretty much the same smaller-than-it-should-be lead that Udall has been carrying for much of the final stretch of the campaign. Despite Schaffer’s cash on hand of over $2 Million, with the NRSC pulling out, along with Freedom’s Watch and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the airtime will be slanted toward pro-Udall and anti-Schaffer ads. This does not bode well for Fmr. Congressman Schaffer and Colorado Republican Party Chairman/Schaffer Campaign Manager Dick Wadhams.

Additionally, for those of you who have been wondering how the controversial Amendment 48 has been polling, Rasmussen delivers the fix you’ve been craving (although it incorrectly calls it a proposition, so who knows how accurate it is. Which state do they think we are? California?)

Fifty-five percent (55%) also oppose Proposition 48 [sic], a pro-life amendment that would define any fertilized egg as a person under the state constitution. Thirty-five percent (35%) support it.

Forty-four percent (44%) say life begins at conception, while 21% say it begins at birth. Thirty-one percent (31%) say it’s somewhere in between.

The interesting part is that even though 44% said life begins at conception, only 35% support the amendment. Maybe Bob Schaffer’s stance on the issue isn’t really pandering, since at least some of his ideological peers agree with him.