November 04, 2015 02:36 PM UTC

Has National Media Misread the 2015 Election?

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• by: PKolbenschlag

(Promoted by Colorado Pols)

Colorado Results Counter Claims of Republican “Coast to Coast” Victories as 2016 Omen of Success

This blog will be a bit of a contrarian view regarding the 2015 elections. Much of the media is reporting the national results as a rebuke to Democrats and President Obama.

Of course, there are no national results but many local and state ones. And looking more closely at those might tell a different tale.

Certainly a deeper dive reveals a more muddled story than simply declaring a “Coast to Coast” conservative sweep, as this over-eager headline writer at the Washington Post did.

The Daily 202: From coast to coast, conservatives score huge victories in off-year elections

THE BIG IDEA: Just like the midterms one year ago, it was another awful night for Democrats.

Hyperbolic headlines aside, or articles that inflate not altogether surprising results in conservative states and misread results such as the defeat in Ohio of the Constitutionally mandated marijuana monopoly, by looking more closely at the details, results may not be the favorable Republican omen some hope it is for 2016.

Take my state, for instance, purple Colorado. Generally considered a political bellwether and always a swing state, 2016 will see another sure-to-be hotly contested U.S. Senate race, as well as a certain fight for the Electoral College votes that are up for grabs.

This year usually by strong margins (albeit a low turn out) Colorado voters across the state,  from both red and blue counties, overturned TABOR (Taxpayer “Bill of Rights”) limits and voted for new taxes to fund  transit, schools and infrastructure; defeated or recalled ultra-conservative school-board candidates; and exempted local jurisdiction from the state law prohibiting local broadband development without relying on the telecom companies.

The 2005 law that jurisdictions have exempted themselves from received strong Republican and enough Democratic support to pass in narrowly divided and split chambers.

That telecom friendly law (SB-152) was passed against strong opposition from local governments and most other stakeholders. After this year’s results, that portion of the law –  for all intents and purposes –  is on life-support if not yet completely dead.

TABOR, passed after several failed attempt by voters in 1992, has long been the poster-boy for the “shrink the government” anti-tax crusaders in the state. It requires that any new tax or change that results in new tax revenue go to the voters to be “De-Bruced.” That term comes from the main proponent of TABOR, Douglas Bruce who is more recently known for his erratic behavior as a legislator and a conviction for tax fraud.Taxpayers have usually voted against tax increases since TABOR passed.

But this year, in both a statewide vote and on numerous local ballots, Colorado voted to get out from TABOR limits and to fund new transit, new schools, and new public infrastructure.

In two closely watched races from opposite sides of the state, conservatives lost hotly contested school-board races. From deep in the red of the Western Slope in Mesa County, where the teacher union backed and progressive candidates defeated the more conservative contenders. To suburban Jefferson County, perhaps among the state’s most fought-over swing districts, where a recall dumped three ultra-conservative members out of office.

Those members came to power as a bloc in the last election, then quickly began to institute what their supporters called reforms – such as threatening to rewrite the AP American History curriculum to be more “patriotic.”

Finally, in a decisive rebuke of the legislature, voters across the state overwhelmingly approved – from blue suburbs to dark red rural counties – over-rides of the state law that blocked localities from developing, or leveraging monies to develop, broadband that left much of the state under-served, if available at all.

The margins were not even close, regarding one set of races, the Grand Junction Sentinel reported:

The closest vote was in Delta, where 71 percent supported the measure versus 29 percent opposing it. Votes in the other cities weren’t that close. Delta County also approved the telecom measure, in addition to the municipalities.

The national pundits, meanwhile, are basing their claims of resounding conservative victory on races like the troubling setback of equality rights in Texas, the election of Republican governors in Kentucky and Mississippi, and the marijuana vote in Ohio.

Yes, the Houston vote is a blow for human and civil rights and for anyone that champions those values including progressives.

And the election of soon-to-be Governor Bevin in Kentucky is especially worrisome given the possibility that many poor Kentuckians are about to lose their health coverage, even as new studies show many of these people are the Americans most at risk from preventable deaths.

But looking forward to a Presidential election in 2016 few expect Kentucky, or Mississippi, or Texas to end up in the “blue column.”

Colorado, on the other hand, is a swing state. While it went decisively for Obama in 2008 and 2012, in non-Presidential elections, with lower turnout, it often returns Republicans to power – as happened in 2010 and again in 2014.

In 2010 Gov. Hickenlooper won – against a very weak Republican and a third party spoiler – but Republicans did well in other statewide, and in Congressional and Legislative races.

In 2014 Sen Cory Gardner defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall, while the State Senate changed over to Republican control, once again splitting the chambers of the Legislature.

In 2015, however, that trend may have reversed. Colorado’s more progressive forces seem to have won the day overall, even with low turn out that has traditionally favored conservatives.

Even in reddest parts of the state voters rejected extremist candidates, supported higher taxes, and even approved local marijuana sales where they rejected them just a few years before.

And to Republican prognosticators peering at the TEA leaves, the trends in a state like Colorado should bring more concern looking toward 2016 than any reassurances they may glean from an ugly, bigoted win in Houston, or by keeping the governor’s mansion in Mississippi.