June 20, 2008 12:11 AM UTC

Udall Takes 9-Point Lead Over Schaffer

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: The Denver Post adds Friday morning:

The gap itself may be less important than the trend: Schaffer has been steadily losing ground in tracking polls in the last three months, a critical period in which both candidates as well as their allies have spent liberally to introduce the two men to voters…

Udall maintains a large lead among women, while he extended his lead among unaffiliated voters to 21 points, a substantial advantage among the voting bloc analysts believe will ultimately decide the race.

And while Schaffer and several independent groups together have spent more than $1 million in the last three months on largely positive ads, Schaffer’s favorable impression among voters actually fell slightly, according to the Tuesday poll (which has a margin of error of 4.5 percent and a 95 percent confidence rate).

The campaign has suffered several weeks of bad publicity over links between Schaffer and jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and a negative TV spot by the League of Conservation Voters has been criticizing links between Schaffer and the oil industry…

From Rasmussen Reports:

Democrat Mark Udall continues to build his lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found that the Democrat had a six six-point lead last month and has widened that lead to nine points today. It’s Udall 49%, Schaffer 40%.

The Democrat has steadily pulled ahead over the past three polls, gaining three percentage points in each survey conducted. Prior to those surveys, the two candidates were essentially even…

…The two candidates in Colorado are essentially tied among male voters, but Udall has a sixteen-point lead among women. Udall earns support from 84% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans in the state. Those percentages haven’t changed much over the past month. Schaffer’s support comes from 84% of Republicans, representing a six-point jump from last month. He is backed by just 8% of Democrats.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Udall leads 51% to 30%. Those numbers represent a considerable improvement for the Democrat since last month, when he led 45% to 33% in that demographic.[Pols emphasis]

Udall’s favorability ratings have also improved this month. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 56%, up six points from last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 35%, which is unchanged. Schaffer’s numbers are 47% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Those ratings are slightly more negative than last month’s.