SurveyUSA/Denver Post: Hickenlooper 45%, Beauprez 43%

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by: Colorado Pols

Bob Beauprez would like for you to just take a nap for a few months.

This morning the Denver Post released results from polling partner SurveyUSA on the U.S. Senate race, and this afternoon they released information about their poll of the Governor contest. As reporter Jon Murray explains for the Post:

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper's race against Republican Bob Beauprez was too close to call in a new Denver Post poll in which voters indicated they were still getting familiar with the challenger.

Forty-five percent supported Hickenlooper and 43 percent supported Beauprez among likely voters polled this week by SurveyUSA. The result is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

We'll admit that it is a bit surprising to see Republican Bob Beauprez polling so close to Gov. John Hickenlooper. When Beauprez last ran for Governor in 2006, polling at this point in the race showed that he was already trailing Democrat Bill Ritter by double-digits in a race he went on to lose by a staggering 17-point margin. Beauprez isn't yet in the same kind of trouble in 2014, but when you dig a little deeper into the poll results, the upside isn't as bright for Both Ways Bob. Again, from the Post:

Beauprez's figures had a positive spread: 38 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable.

But 28 percent said they needed to know more about Beauprez, a former congressman who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, to form an opinion. Only 7 percent had no opinion about Hickenlooper.

Beauprez is polling so close to Hickenlooper largely because of the Governor's own summer of self-inflicted political wounds. Beauprez has a 34% unfavorable rating — and 28% of voters still say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion — which makes it clear that this is all about Hickenlooper's (un)popularity at this point. Poll respondents aren't saying, "We want Beauprez" as much as they are declaring "We're not real happy with Hickenlooper." This is a significant difference, which is summed up well by one telling quote from a poll respondent:

"He doesn't have a very strong backing from me, other than he's done a pretty good job in creating jobs for Colorado," said Chris Delaney, 29, a Denver resident who told SurveyUSA he planned to vote for Hickenlooper despite disapproving of his performance [Pols emphasis]. "But that's not the only thing a governor's supposed to do. He just doesn't seem to represent my views and things that are important to me."

Plenty of voters may disapprove of Hickenlooper's performance as Governor, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they want to replace him with Beauprez. And that's where things remain difficult for Beauprez; he can't control his own destiny. Beauprez needs Hickenlooper to lose voter support before he can win the race for himself, and there just isn't enough time for both things to happen.

The amount of negative information floating around about Beauprez is, in a word, staggering. Keep that in mind as we go back to that 28% of poll respondents who say they don't know enough about Beauprez — it's unlikely that uninformed voters are going to be attracted to Beauprez as they learn more about him.

If that 28% remains uninformed — and a barrage of pro-Hickenlooper TV ads don't change the Governor's numbers — then Beauprez has a chance in November. Barring a two-month power outage in Colorado, we don't see how that can happen.

15 thoughts on “SurveyUSA/Denver Post: Hickenlooper 45%, Beauprez 43%”

DawnPatrol says:

September 11, 2014 at 4:22 pm

To know (or to reacquaint oneself) with Tabaggin' BothWays is NOT to love him. Familiarity with him will breed contempt. This gap will widen shortly and definitively in Hick's favor.

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1. Voyageur says:
  
  September 11, 2014 at 4:50 pm
  
  Not if Beauprez leaves immediately on a intensive, 60 day fact finding tour of the south poll, with no internet service,. Oh, he'll iss off the penquins, but they can't vote. You can't rub, Bob, but you can hide and that's your best hope.
  
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  1. BlueCat says:
    
    September 11, 2014 at 6:39 pm
    
    That's how I'd play it in his shoes. And I figured you meant "run".
    
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2. marklane1351 says:
  
  September 20, 2014 at 5:05 pm
  
  This race is shaping up like the John Kerry George Bush Race. There were too many Anybody But Bush voters and not enough Kerry voters. It is not enough for people to vote Green, Socialist, Communist or Constitution because they don't like Hickenlooper. They have to be Beauprez voters.
  
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Voyageur says:

September 11, 2014 at 4:53 pm

make that you can't run, but you can hide. BWB actually can "rub" despite what my typo said, but he rubs people the wong way.

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ct says:

September 11, 2014 at 7:44 pm

I was disappointed that the governor put 1 representative from an environmental groups and 5 industry reps on his 'Blue Ribbon' panel. But it was just another on top of others. I almost agree with Chris Delaney.

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1. Duke Cox says:
  
  September 11, 2014 at 8:28 pm
  
  I completely agree with Mr. Delaney. Particularly having witnessed, for the first time, a public appearance by BWB at the Club20 debate.. Holy crap…I wouldn't vote for that guy if you paid me…well, I suppose I might have a price…
  
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2. gertie97 says:
  
  September 12, 2014 at 10:25 am
  
  ct: I'm encouraged that Hick appointed Russ George and Bernie Buescher. They pack a good punch,.
  
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  1. ct says:
    
    September 12, 2014 at 11:28 am
    
    I am glad Bernie is on, and I am not upset about all the appointments. I am concerned about the overall make up which is a very different thing, in thinking through stakeholder groups.
    
    Specifcally, I think that the make up remains slightly skewed. Not that the members on the panel are sell outs or unale to be strong advocaes. I know may of them and know that is not the case.
    
    But, I maintain my concern although I will mitigte my 'disappointment' to mere 'skepticism.'
    
    If we want to reach a compromise that actually avoids a future ballot fight we need a panel that represents the broader set of folks actually engaging in the issue, IMO, including formal reps from (not members of) community and conservation groups at some parity with industry reps.
    
    The remainder whould be equally representative from local governments and 'civic leaders,' IMO, and should include a variety of perspectives (yes to more local control, no to more local control, etc.). Setting up a panel to get it past the election that does not resolve the underlying issues and dynamics, well, call me 'skeptical' of any grand bargain or much success.
    
    But of course I want it to work, and I respect a number of folks on the panel, I am glad they are on it and wish them the best of luck. I hope to be mistaken n my doubts so I can come back on here and publically eat my words.
    
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Gilpin Guy says:

September 12, 2014 at 8:38 am

What is so weird about this year is that it's not about the economy. If it was then Hickenlooper would be cruising to re-election. Instead we're now looking at non-stop Nathan Dunlap commercials and Hickenloopers love for his old industry and it is supposed to be a close race.

If you want to see the difference you can compare the relative economic situation between Kansas and Colorado. Kansas went all in on conservative economic policies and it let to a downgrade of their credit because they blew up their state tax revenue by gutting state taxes. Republican economic policies suck but Democratic economic policies don't earn any respect. Go figure.

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1. BlueCat says:
  
  September 12, 2014 at 9:41 am
  
  Exactly. 100 prominent Republicans are opposing Brownback because his super radical, far right ideological, extreme tax slashing is tanking their economy and their education system and he just promises more. That's a great message to target moderates with since BWB, Gardner and Coffman all have far right voting records on economic issues
  
  It's a perfect field study of what you get with a Republican exec and legislative majority, free to fully implement the most radical trickle down/austerity/shrink government to bathtub drowning size policies versus what you get with a moderate, pro-business Dem Governor and Dem legislative majorities. Good for all Dem candidates statewide and in all competitive districts with potentially tight races. And remember when ultra-conservative Republican Colorado Springs had to close parks, pools and shut off street lights? Kansas is like Colorado Springs statewide.
  
  The all choice all the time message has been effective with the target audience but probably has reached the limit of its potential. It really isn't the top issue for moderates. Besides, it's getting to be like wallpaper. Why ignore the gift that Brownback's Kansas has handed us on the economic front? Why not ads that show the stark comparison between Dem led Colorado's economic success and strengthening recovery and the utter failure of current Republican, heavily Tea Party influenced ideology in Republican led Kansas ?
  
  This is exactly what stats have been proving for decades but it's happening right here, right now, side by side. Dem candidates should use it. You can bet Rs would if the situation was reversed.
  
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  1. Gilpin Guy says:
    
    September 12, 2014 at 10:05 am
    
    If trickle-on-me economics worked the R's would be gloating about it in every commercial. As it is, they are ignoring the economy and focusing on divisive trivial issues because they know a strengthening economic is their political doom. Dems need to do a better job of messaging so that the benefits of rational economic poicy are used to bludgeon these America hating hypocrites. They want the economy to fail so that they can blame Obama.
    
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    1. BlueCat says:
      
      September 12, 2014 at 10:53 am
      
      Don't know why Dems continue to be afraid to go toe to toe with Rs on the economy as it's so clear R policies don't work. Dems still seem to live in fear of being called commies. It's long past time for them to stop running on…. please don't hate me for being a Dem. We can be almost as conservative on economic issues as the responsible sensible Rs. They needed that back when Clinton ran on DLC triangulation but times change. Now that we've been seeing those "responsible" conservative economics failing for so many years it's time for Dems to go on offense with the tons of proof available that trickle down and austerity are huge flops. I cringe every time I see Romanoff's misguided ad claiming he's all for a federal balanced budget requirement. Wrong message. Dems should run as not like the GOTP right on economic issues, just as they do on the social issues, and explain why.
      
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  2. Gray in Mountains says:
    
    September 13, 2014 at 2:47 pm
    
    kind of sad for Brownback that he and Cory will be competing for a job with Koch, AEI, AFP. Are there enough jobs for destroyed and degraded Rs
    
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Diogenesdemar says:

September 12, 2014 at 7:04 pm

Guess that means Gessler's at 12% and growing by leaps and bounds. To paraphrase Skippy, "see that wave a comin' " !?! . . .

Gessler 2014 (and beyond)!

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