March 16, 2014 09:49 AM UTC

How the Colorado Senate Race fits in the National Picture- March 2014

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• by: Andrew Carnegie

The Dems currently hold the majority in the US Senate with an effective 55 (2 are actually independents who caucus with the Dems) – 45 voting majority.  Because the Dems hold the Presidency, the Republicans need to pick up 6 seats in order to depose Harry Reid.  Do the Republicans need to win the Udall-Gardner contest in order to flip the Senate?  The answer is probably not.

There are basically 12 Dem seats at various stages of realistic risk and two Republican seats that can be currently identified as being realistically at risk.  Here is how I see them.

The Race is already over and the Republican has won:

1.       South Dakota.  Open seat.  Republican is up by 20 points in most recent polling.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/sd/south_dakota_senate_rounds_vs_weiland-4091.html

2.       West Virginia.  Open seat.  Republican is up by 14 points in most recent polling.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_capito_vs_tennant-4088.html

Writing is on the wall that the Republican will win:

3.       Arkansas.  Mark Pryor, Incumbent.  Republican Tom Cotton up by 3 points in RCP average polling.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-4049.html

Races where the control of the Senate will be determined (Republicans win 3 of these races, they have control).

4.       Montana. John Walsh, Dem, appointed in Feb 2014.  Congressman Steve Daines, the Republican likely candidate, was leading Walsh in polling before Walsh was appointed.  No polling since the appointment.

5.       Alaska.  Mark Begich, Incumbent.  Begich is polling in the low 40’s and appears to be even with several Republican candidates with very little polling.  The only 2014 by a Republican polling house has the Republicans up by 6 points.  The Dem polling house has Begich up by 4 or 6 points.  Begich has a -1 approval rating and Obama’s approval ratings are very bad in Alaska. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2014#Polling_2

6.       North Carolina.  Kay Hagan, Incumbent.  Hagan is getting hit with significant Ad buys and her approval rating has been steadily declining.  It is now in the 30’s.  Many of the Republican potential candidates poll ahead of Hagan but with 8 candidates it will take some time for a front runner to emerge.  http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/030314.xhtml

7.       Louisiana.  Mary Landrieu, Incumbent.  Republican Cassidy is up by 4 points in most recent polling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Hickman_LA_0314.pdf

8.       Michigan.  Open seat.  Republican Terri Land is up by 3.7 points in RCP average polling.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mi/michigan_senate_land_vs_peters-3820.html

9.       New Hampshire.  Jeanne Shaheen, Incumbent. Scott Brown, former Massachusetts Senator, appears to be getting into the race which will make it competitive.  Currently Shaheen holds a 7 point edge, but that will change.  Brown would not be jumping in unless he saw a wave coming.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html

10.    Colorado.  Mark Udall, Incumbent.  Congressman Corey Gardner trails Udall by 1 point in most recent polling. Next week Udall gets hit with a wave of anti-Udall PAC advertising.   Count on that 1 point lead evaporating. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/colorado/election_2014_colorado_senate

11.   Iowa.  Open Seat.  The Dems have settled on a candidate, Congressman Bruce Braley.  The Republicans have not.  Braley seems to enjoy a 5-10% lead against the field, but it will take a while for the republicans to come up with a candidate and for the numbers to be real.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/braley-branstad-lead-in-iowa-races.html

12.   Minnesota.  Al Franken, Incumbent.  The Republicans are still figuring out who their candidate will be and Franken is ahead of the field by 5-10 points.  This is the least likely of the 12 to flip.  What keeps it on the radar is he only has a 39% approval rating.  http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2013/12/buyers_remorse_franken_loss_wo.php

Possible Dem Pickups

1.       Georgia.  Open seat.  Michelle Nunn seems to have the Dem nomination and she is tied in the polls with the leading Republican nominees.  Changing demographics and a quality name candidate make this seat a real race.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2014

2.       Kentucky.  Mitch McConnell, Incumbent.  The incumbent faces a real primary and the Dems have anointed a challenger.  While the numbers look close at this time, at the end of the day it is Kentucky.  I do not see this being very close in November.  Grimes is up by one point in the 2014 polling averages.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

What it all means.

Perhaps the most reliable factor in determining the total number of seats that will flip in a mid-term election is the Presidential approval rating.  Currently the RCP average has that number at 42.8%.  The most recent Gallup poll has it at 39%.  Here is a chart from Real Clear Politics that shows how that translates:

95% confidence based on job approval number that Dem losses will be between  ___ and ___.

Job Approval     Low     High

50                    5          9

49                    6          10

48                    6          10

47                    7          11

46                    8          12

45                    8          12

44                    9          13

43                    10         13

42                    10         13

41                    11         14

40                    12         14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/02/20/computing_democrats_risk_of_losing_the_senate_121640.html

There is a reason Scott Brown and Corey Gardner just got in the race.  They see not just a 6 seat flip, but a 12 seat wave.  Whether Udall or Gardner wins will not likely affect control of the Senate.