June 26, 2013 11:29 PM UTC

The State of Northeastern Colorado- A Democratic Win?

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• by: Tom

Sure,this wacky idea of seceding from Colorado to create Weldistan is a laughably unworkable stunt by conservative grandstanders. Though secession would never even approach reality, consider that even on its own terms it's a political failure.

To begin with, Weldistan would have to be its own state. Trying to gain admission to Wyoming, Nebraska, or Kansas wouldn't work because none of those states would really want the sudden addition of all that expensive rural infrastructure. The only reason they might consider it is because of the oil and gas revenue, a deal-breaker for the wise exalted council of county commissioners when they think about the rise in royalty rates.

So, Weldistan would be its own little Galtian paradise, right? Probably not. Whatever governance they decide, it's unlikely the state founders would want to have a legislature made up of only 4 house members and 3ish senators. Unless they come up with some drastically weird gerrymandering, that means that all the power would be massively concentrated in Weld County and it wouldn't be power completely monopolized by the GOP. Weld is a Republican county, but not overwhelmingly so. We did elect Betsy Markey by 53%. Considering the counties that have declared their desire to secede, it looks like the current 4th congressional district if you chop off a bunch of the southern tail and the chunk of Tancredo-land we gained from CD-6. That means that Weldistan would be noticeably more Democratic than Cory Gardner's current district. All the angst about urban Denver dictating to the rural areas would just be transferred to suburban Greeley. 

The political impact on the remainder of Colorado would be pretty cheery for the Democrats. A net loss to the GOP of 3 House members and a couple of safe Senate seats would set up an even stronger legislative majority. Statewide races would be tilted toward the Democrats with an even stronger emphasis on the metro area and the Front Range. 

Altogether, the conservative dream of creating a 51st state would result in a strongly Democratic Colorado and Republican Weldistan that's would be politically on the order of the Dakotas (both with one Dem senator) and bluer than Utah or Wyoming. As a political exercise it's a bust unless the goal was a net gain for the Democrats.