U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Michael Bennet
50%
50%
50%
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Jena Griswold
(D) Brian Mason
60%↑
30%↑
20%↓
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%↑
30%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Manny Rutinel
(D) Yadira Caraveo
45%↓
40%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 21, 2010 08:24 PM UTC
2 Comments
We wouldn’t be doing this — we’d be making a fortune in Las Vegas. Do you expect that every race is going to play out exactly as we list it on the Line?
The Jeffco Line is our opinion and analysis of various races, and it’s meant for discussion and entertainment. It’s not a crystal ball. We try to be accurate, but there’s no magic formula, and in retrospect some of the odds should have changed.
Take the Commissioner’s race, for example. Rosier was completely unknown and was heavily outraised and outspent by the incumbent Hartman. How would you have handicapped that race? In retrospect, we should have had Rosier closer because Republicans were expected to have a natural advantage in downballot races. But there is nothing that Rosier or his campaign did that would have indicated that he was going to win the race.
For other races, like the Treasurer race, it’s really tough to tell. Neither candidate raised much money or did a lot of visible campaigning. Kauffman got the edge by virtue of being a Republican, but he was a newcomer to politics who had no name ID (unlike Schultz).
And sometimes we’re just flat-out wrong. We were wrong about HD-29, and we were surprised that Ramirez won. What can you do?
There’s no reason the unopposed candidates shouldn’t have been at EVEN odds. That was just a mistake on our part of overlooking the numbers we had originally listed after it was clear there would be no opponents.