U.S. Senate See Full Big Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper*

(R) Somebody

80%

20%

(D) Joe Neguse

(D) Phil Weiser

(D) Jena Griswold

60%

60%

40%↓

Att. General See Full Big Line

(D) M. Dougherty

(D) Alexis King

(D) Brian Mason

40%

40%

30%

Sec. of State See Full Big Line

(D) George Stern

(D) A. Gonzalez

(R) Sheri Davis

40%

40%

30%

State Treasurer See Full Big Line

(D) Brianna Titone

(R) Kevin Grantham

(D) Jerry DiTullio

60%

30%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Hurd*

(D) Somebody

80%

40%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert*

(D) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank*

(D) Somebody

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(R) Gabe Evans*

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(D) Joe Salazar

50%

40%

40%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 09, 2024 01:15 PM UTC

Rep. Caraveo Concedes Hard-Fought CO-08 Race

  • 33 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

SUNDAY UPDATE: With the count failing to close a persistent gap of around 2,500 votes, incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo concedes the race to Republican challenger Gabe Evans:

—–

Don’t call it. You’ve got to wait for all of it.

As Ernest Luning reports for the Colorado Springs Gazette’s political blog, the agonizingly slow count in the close-as-can-be CO-08 race, which as of this writing is one of the last congressional races pending to determine control of the U.S. House, leaves us unable to call a winner in the most important race in the state this year four days after the polls closed:

Republican challenger Gabe Evans took a slim lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo late Friday in Colorado’s battleground 8th Congressional District as county clerks continued to post returns days after Tuesday’s election.

Evans jumped ahead by 2,529 votes when conservative-leaning Weld County reported about 14,000 additional votes Friday night in what’s expected to be the county’s last big ballot drop, marking the first time the state lawmaker has led the race since election night…

There remained a chance Caraveo can make up ground when Adams County, which has been favoring the Democrat by a roughly 12-point margin, reports the rest of its ballots, though strategists on both sides cautioned that the race might not be decided for days.

With conservative Weld County mostly done with their counting, all eyes now are on the count proceeding in more populous Adams County to the south where the count has been breaking solidly for incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo. A major problem for those of us trying to track the count updates has been initially inaccurate estimates of the remaining ballots to be counted from both the Weld and Adams clerks, who both have reported and then corrected that all-important figure scrambling both sides’ calculations.

With the count resuming in Adams County today after a snow day yesterday, the race is once again rapidly narrowing:

If that 58-38% margin holds for the remaining ballots in Adams County it’s good news for Caraveo, but neither side should be projecting false confidence in the outcome at this point. This count is back to the trend we’ve seen since Tuesday night of narrowly favoring Caraveo, but the final margin could be extremely close–to the point where ballots that require supplemental action by the voters to confirm, a process known as ballot “curing,” becomes decisive. Again, there’s nothing mysterious about this process, in which canvassers for the respective campaigns reach out to their voters with ballots that need curing. For observers who went into Election Day hoping for instant gratification, and especially in a race that could determine control of the U.S. House, the wait while this process plays out is stressful to put it mildly.

But it’s also completely normal. A Republican and a Democratic clerk have presided over the two biggest counties counting ballots in the CO-08 race. In a district drawn to be as competitive as possible, we have a race so close that any outside party who starts complaining about the long count risks undermining their own preferred candidate. Both candidates in this race have a powerful incentive to tell supporters to slow down, to not be bullied into premature conclusions, and to count every single countable vote.

Colorado is getting the nail-biter race we drew this district to provide.

So if you’re not knocking doors this weekend to cure ballots, sit back and enjoy the suspense.

Comments

33 thoughts on “Rep. Caraveo Concedes Hard-Fought CO-08 Race

  1. got an invitation from Denver county Dems:

    Ballot curing is the process of fixing problems with a mail ballot to ensure that a person's vote is counted. There is very little time to fix issues with these ballots, so we are asking for your help.  This process is allowed by Colorado state law.

    Below is the signup for the Adams County and Weld County Virtual Phone Banks (VPB) and/or in-person door knocking.  We ask you to give one, two, or more hours to push Representative Caraveo and State Representative Young over the finish line LEGALLY through the Ballot Curing process.

    Please click on the following links to help with Ballot Curing for our two Democratic candidates in Adams County and/or Weld County:

    https://covictory.org/adamscure

    https://covictory.org/weldcure

  2. One other dimension to keep track of – NBC is saying the current House balance is 204 Dems, 212 Republicans. A House majority would vastly improve my mood, this time without powerful drugs. One seat in lil' ol' CO-8 could make like all the difference in the world!

  3. AP site:

     Candidate …..  votes ….. pct.

    Gabe Evans ….. 158,290….. 48.9%

    Yadira Caraveo.. 156,088….. 48.3%

    Chris Baum ….. 5,525 ….. 1.7%

    Susan Hall ….. 3,537 ….. 1.1%

    Colorado Sec. of State site, showing results and estimates of counted votes:

    portions of Larimer  est. 97% counted  = 13,327   margin Evans 54%  Caraveo 43%

    Weld:  est. 85% counted = 118,122  margin  Evans 58% Caraveo 39%

    Adams:  est. . 93% counted =  191,991  margin Caraveo Caraveo 54%  Evans 43%

     

    1. Yeah.  Unfortunately, not enough votes left for Caraveo to win.  Time to get to work on the 2026 campaign to unseat Evans.  Evans will be a backbencher with little influence.  If he's smart, he avoid Boebert and learns to work with less nutty Rs.  Time will tell.  

      1. I wrote in another post that the sniping from the far right has already started on Evans, as well as Crank and Hurd. Some nut on the RINO Watch website already nominated the three for the "RINO Wall of Shame" because they're not conservative enough. Evans could do well by quietly cultivating Joe Neguse and/or Jason Crow to see how to work his way in.

        And, back in the day when there were more than a handful of good Colorado Republicans around, Crank was a senior staffer for former R Rep. Joel Hefley.

        1. I don't see Evans doing that.  He doesn't seem as bright as Hurd or Crank, nor as savvy.  Plus, his district is not going to get any easier to win in 2026, so he may be a one-termer.

  4. Democrats on the redistricting committee are idiots.  Colorado is a solidly blue state and we're going to have a 4-4 congressional house delegation.  Meanwhile, neighboring CD 1 is D+55 and CD2 is D+40.  It wouldn't have been hard to draw CD8 in a way to guaranty a democratic victory.  The districts should have been drawn with the goal of maintaining a 5-3 Democratic majority. 

    1. You raise a valid point, Bill Carson.

      Even back in 2000 when Colorado got it's 7the House seat, the folks in Denver had a fit when there was talk of dividing Denver up to help draw winnable suburban districts. They labeled it a violation of something called "communities of interest."

      More recently with the addition of the 8th CD, there were ways of drawing maps which would have given Dems a 6 to 2 edge. 

      But instead of the legislature drawing maps, we have a non-partisan commission because that's what smug, sanctimonious liberals prefer. We don't want to lower ourselves to the level of North Carolina, Florida and Texas which have Republican districts. We prefer to have fair districts.

      But you're point is well taken and there are those of us in agreement with you.

      1. "We prefer to have fair districts."

        I agree with your sentiment regarding insufferable, sanctimonious liberals. 

        I pay a fair amount of attention to statewide politics but, like most people, I don't know much about how the federal and state districts are drawn.  Does the same non-partisan commission that draws the congressional districts also draw the state districts?  Because it looks to me (see below) that the the way the state districts have been drawn pretty well cements Democratic control of the state legislature.

        I know generally where the more conservative and liberal areas are geographically, but looking at the election results from the Secretary of State, a couple of things stick out:

        1.  My eyes are drawn to the distinction between the number of districts that are overwhelmingly drawn as "safe" districts for one party or the other.  I'll define a "safe" district as one where the margin of victory in this election is 8 points or more.  (Yes, this is an unusual election year, but we have to expect outliers.)  8 points is arbitrary, but 10 points seems like a blowout. 

        2.  Of the 65 State House elections, all but 12 districts appear to be "safe" for one party or the other.  There appear to by untrained eye to be 19 safe R districts, 12 "competitive" districts, and 34 safe D districts.

        3.  Of the 18 State Senate races, all but 4 districts appear to be "safe" for one party or the other. 

        4.  Of the 8 Congressional races, all but 2 districts appear to be "safe."  There are 4 safe D districts, 2 safe R districts, and 2 districts within an 8-point margin but which (this year) lean R. 

        5.  ISTM that D3 (Frisch/Hurd) is an outlier due to all of the money and groundgame Frisch laid out to defeat Boebert, and that in the future D3 will be a safe R district.  That would leave us with 4 safe D seats, 3 safe R seats, and 1 "competitive" district.

        6.  I expect that D8 may trend toward the GOP considering its proximity to Weld County. 

    2. The selection process of commissioners is NOT in any way under the control of the state party.  see: https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/commissioner-selection-process

      The Colorado approach of an Independent Redistricting Commission:  based on "The state constitution requires that 8 of the 12 commissioners, including at least 1 unaTffiliated commissioner, vote for any such standard, guideline, or methodology." Don't know how you then think the Democrats were idiots OR able to control the process.

       

       

       

      1. What a stupid way to form a commission.  Regardless of the intentions or alliances of the members of the commission, they are essentially gerrymandering the same way that Republicans would do it if Republicans held ever seat on the commission, which is that they are packing the urban seats with Democrats and spreading everybody else out.

        1. The last time I looked, among Active Registrations, Democrats are only 26% of the electorate.  Republicans 23%.  Unaffiliated are above 48% of the voters. Major parties are shedding 0.1% to 0.2% per month. By the 2026 general election, I expect Unaffiliated to be over 50%.

          Dems are winning — but NOT because of the party affiliations.

          1. People don't want to affiliate with one of the two major political parties for lots of reasons:  they don't want to align themselves with all of political baggage or buffoonery of either party; they don't agree with all of the platform; or (and this is the biggie) they are tired of being inundated with all the political mailers, phone calls, door-knockers, and text messages. 

            Personally, I align more closely with the Democrats, but I refuse to formally affiliate with the party who awarded most of the primary delegates to a candidate who only garnered 40% of the caucus votes rather than the candidate who earned 60% of the votes.

            If the major parties are not going to be responsive to voters, then they should die out.  But regardless, districts must be drawn and the way the the present districts have been drawn is ludicrous.  The committee is doing a bad job.  Perhaps that's by design.

    3. The problem was voting to create that commission when Dems had majorities in both houses of the state legislature that could have favorably gerrymandered those congressional districts for a decade.

      Dems who voted for the commission engaged in performative piety. We Dems do not learn lessons. Ever.

      1. easy to look up … when the Redistricting Commission amendments passed, the legislature was split.

        CO Senate was
        Democratic Party 16
        Republican Party 18 with President: Kevin J. Grantham (R)
        Independent 1

        CO House was
        Democratic Party 36
        Republican Party 29

      2. Not excusing anything, but there were 2 slightly different citizen initiatives to create redistricting commissions drafted and on the table, before the legislature passed a resolution to put referred redistricting measures on the ballot (Y and Z). There would have been something on the ballot in 2018 even if the legislature didn't do something, and I'd guess something would've passed. I dislike that we have a 4-4 split right now as much as anyone, but I don't think the majority of Colorado voters would've cared about that possibility enough to defeat a ballot measure in 2018.

  5. Woop, Woop!

    Rep Evans did it. 

    Congrats!   I need to call his Mom.

    And congrats to Rep Boebert, Rep Hurd, and Rep Crank.

    What an amazing election cycle,

    I'm glowing with pleasure.

     

    And yes, us RINO Watch folks will be watching his votes.

    And us DINO's as well. (45 yrs in Boulder)

     

  6. We'll, it's official.  We are now seeing the Age of Idiocracy ushered in 480 years earlier than predicted.

    Presciently including WWE as the model of behavior for the President.  Trumptards rule!

      1. I am a fan of both. 

        O'dorisio will be term limited in '26.  He has a strong blue collar background, having worked his way through college and law school in construction.  He is a genuinely "good guy" who has performed well each of the three times hes been on the ballot in Adams County.   

        Baca, Chair of the County Commission, has been a long-stnading fixture in Adams County politics/public service for well over 20 years.  She comes from a farming family near Brighton  She was just elected to her second term on the committsion by nearly 10 points (this includes the "red" portion of Adams county that is not in the 8th CD).

        I'd hate to have to choose between the two, but givent the demographic make up of the district, I'd likely lean Baca.

  7. I’m wondering if anyone has some insight into the efficacy of the Caraveo campaign?  I was surprised that none of the canvassing doors I had for the last two weekends had been contacted before.  But, I heard that lots of volunteers along the Front Range had been assigned to CD8.  Did she run a competent ground campaign?

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

54 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!