August 27, 2024 02:50 PM UTC

The Big Line 2024: Ballot Measures

• 9 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Initiative 145 (Qualifications for Veterinary Professionals) is officially on the ballot, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

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The Big Line has been a staple on Colorado Pols since the site’s founding in 2004. Providing our assessment of political races has always been one of our most popular features.

What we have NOT done before, however, is sketch out a “Big Line” for ballot measures.

Until today.

For now, we’re just starting with “citizen” led ballot measures. There are another seven items that will be on the statewide ballot via referrals from the state legislature; we’ll leave that for another time.

Before we get to our assessment of the likelihood of each “citizen” initiative of passing in November, we should first start with a primer. As you peruse the chart below, remember that a “Constitutional” initiative requires at least 55% of the vote in order to pass; a “Statutory” measure is approved with one vote more than 50% of the total.

The numbers listed above will change for the official final ballot approved by the Secretary of State. Since this is how the SOS office currently refers to each measure, we will do the same.

And now, on to the Ballot Measure Big Line.

NOTE: The percentages below represent our best guess at the likelihood of each particular outcome; if an initiative is listed as “YES: 25%,” that means we think there is a 25% chance of “YES” winning on Election Night; it does NOT mean that we think said initiative will claim 25% of the vote in November. 

Initiative 50 (Retain Property Tax Revenue)
YES: 25%
NO: 75%
Initiative 50 will likely be removed from the ballot as a condition of a property tax deal being worked out in this week’s special legislative session. But even if that deal somehow falls apart, it looks unlikely that 50 has the resources to explain to enough voters the impacts of a measure with a confusing ballot text. There is also no goodwill floating around whereby other significant supporters would rush to back 50.

Initiative 89 (Guarantee Abortion Rights)
YES: 90%
NO: 10%
Colorado voters have proved over the years that this is a very pro-choice state. Initiative 89 was well-crafted, the campaign is well-organized and well-funded. All of which means, well, that this is an easy projection — even though it needs 55% of the vote to pass.

Initiative 91 (Prohibit Trophy Hunting)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
This measure doesn’t seem to have any strong opposition, and the ballot language is pretty straightforward. This should pass easily.

Initiative 108 (Valuation for Assessments)
YES: 40%
NO: 60%
This initiative’s twin brother (50) has an easier path to passage since it is not a Constitutional ballot measure. But 108, like 50, is likely to be dropped from the ballot as a condition of a property tax deal being worked out in this week’s special legislative session.

Initiative 112 (Concerning Eligibility for Parole)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
It’s not clear that there is much of an organized campaign either for or against this initiative. The ballot language is fairly clear, however, and we would guess that average voters would be inclined to keep violent offenders behind bars as long as possible.

Initiative 138 (School Choice in Education)
YES: 50%
NO: 50%
This is a true tossup for a few reasons: 1) There doesn’t appear to be a robust campaign either for or against this proposal; and 2) The ballot language is both understandable and confusing. The text is clear in asking voters to create a “Constitutional” right to school choice (read: vouchers), but it doesn’t explain what that means from a policy perspective. Like…what happens next? This measure doesn’t really do anything. Initiative 138 also needs 55% to pass; the higher threshold could make it tough to attract enough support given that there will be some percentage of voters who won’t trust voting “YES” because it’s not clear what would happen as a result.

Initiative 145 (Qualifications for Veterinary Professionals)
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
This is probably a slight favorite to pass given the relative lack of campaigning either for or against the idea. For the average, slightly-informed voter, a quick read of the text probably makes this seem perfectly reasonable.

Initiative 157 (Funding for Law Enforcement)
YES: 52%
NO: 48%
This is one of the more politically-confusing measures (assuming it qualifies for the ballot), because it’s not obvious what Advance Colorado is really trying to accomplish here. Some voters may balk at the $350 million price tag, but our guess is that more voters agree with the text on increasing funding for law enforcement training and victim services.

Initiative 310 (Ranked Voting, Open Primaries)
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
The broader idea here is something that is generally popular: Giving voters better options in a General Election with an “open primary” process that puts up to four candidates on a General Election ballot, regardless of political party. The problem is that it can be confusing to explain the ranked choice process in more detail. Still, this is a well-funded campaign promoting an ideal that voters will probably appreciate, and it should pass assuming that it qualifies for the ballot.