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August 15, 2023 12:35 AM UTC

Tuesday Open Thread

  • 39 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“It is not clear that intelligence has any long-term survival value.”

–Stephen Hawking

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39 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

  1. Good morning, Polsters.

    Boy, Howdy. We have been waiting for this for a long time. The Orange Menace is teetering and soon to fall.

    …and…

    Where is Steven Miller?

        1. In a sane country, a Congresswoman would spell check the name of a district attorney first, then consider if she was actually writing something banal and dumb.

  2. Republicans haven't had a policy discussion since Gerald Ford. Brad DeLong

    I know, some people have been Republicans ever since Nixon, best known as a great environmentalist. But I agree with Brad that it was Reagan, the friendly fascist, who killed the Republican Party.

    there is no conversation about “which of these options is the best way to improve people’s lives?” between Democrats and Republicans. That conversation is over. But there is another conversation, and it continues. However, the continuing conversation is within the Democratic coalition. In truth, it has been a very long time since Republicans had anyone with any ability to actually think about “which of these options is the best way to improve people’s lives?” They have not had policy analysis or policy design capacity since the end of the Ford administration. 

    As Irving Kristol once said, the point of the Reagan movement was simply “to create a new majority… so political effectiveness was the priority, not the accounting deficiencies of government…” Thus Reagan budget, growth, and international macro policy was godawful. To the extent that they were rescued, it was by Carter appointee Paul Volcker and the ability of the Republican rich to trumpet as great prosperity what was merely increased wealth inequality—and the willingness of the media to buy that. A partial return to reality came only when the Reagan insiders abandoned ship and allowed Ford-era worthies to push the appointment of Howard Baker as Acting President for Domestic Policy. Reagan foreign policy—weapons to the Ayatollah? contras in central America? winky-winkies from Jeanne Kirkpatrick to Argentinian generals that the U.S. would allow them to conquer the Falkland Islands if they played ball withe the U.S. in Nicaragua?—was equally headed for disaster, and was only saved by Al Haig’s flaming out at the State Department, the coöpting of Ford veteran George Shultz as Acting President for Foreign Affairs, and the interventions of Nancy Reagan and her astrologer.

    And George W. Bush and Donald Trump were worse. The attack on Iraq? An “ownership society” that was a Social Security privatization scheme with no math at all and a mortgage-lending scheme with no controls at all? A corporate tax cut that provides no incentives to actually invest in America but only to do stock buybacks? Throwing away your TPP alliances and then, having disarmed yourself, launching a trade war against China?

     

    1. I don’t agree with the author’s contention about the “winky-winkies” to the Argentine generals. Reagan was really chummy with Margaret Thatcher and would not have looked the other way while the Argentines just waltzed into the Falklands.

          1. Specifically, the popularity of the military government was collapsing. The purpose of the Malvinas War was to create a nationalist-patriot rebound.

            The failure of the war hastened the fall of the dictatorship.

        2. Closest I’ve been is seeing road signs in 2013, in Argentina, that proclaim, in Spanish: “The Malvinas are ours.” 

          The people of the Falklands have voted to remain British. That’s good enough for me.

      2. I'm old enough to remember the Falklands War. Ronnie and Maggie did have their weird crush on one another, and I doubt the Gipper would ever have gone against the Iron Lady.

        But I also remember that General Haig was speaking out of school at one point at the start of Falklands War and made some remark the U.S. wanting to be a neutral broker between the combatants. He was quickly shut down and soon thereafter resigned.

        1. I just checked on line. The April 19, 1982 issue of Newsweek magazine is selling for a few hundred dollars now.

          It’s the issue with an aerial view of HMS Hermes steaming to the South Atlantic and the headline: “The Empire Strikes Back.”

      3. Raygun was winky-winky as all effin’ hell with any and every south-of-the-Texas border right-winger, just so long as they pretended their many crimes, slaughters, and atrocities were to root out the dread red-menace communists.

        But, yeah, he would’ve opposed the appropriation of any territorial colonial bauble from a righty white woman of European heritage or descent.

  3. Huge Victory on Climate Change Lawsuit in Montana! h/t HC-R.

    In 1972, after a century of mining, ranching, and farming had taken a toll on Montana, voters in that state added to their constitution an amendment saying that “[t]he state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations,” and that the state legislature must make rules to prevent the degradation of the environment. 

    In March 2020 the nonprofit public interest law firm Our Children’s Trust filed a lawsuit on behalf of sixteen young Montana residents, arguing that the state’s support for coal, oil, and gas violated their constitutional rights because it created the pollution fueling climate change, thus depriving them of their right to a healthy environment. They pointed to a Montana law forbidding the state and its agents from taking the impact of greenhouse gas emissions or climate change into consideration in their environmental reviews, as well as the state’s fossil fuel–based state energy policy. 

    That lawsuit is named Held v. Montana after the oldest plaintiff, Rikki Held, whose family’s 7,000-acre ranch was threatened by a dwindling water supply, and both the state and a number of officers of Montana. The state of Montana contested the lawsuit by denying that the burning of fossil fuels causes climate change—despite the scientific consensus that it does—and denied that Montana has experienced changing weather patterns. Through a spokesperson, the governor said: “We must focus on American innovation and ingenuity, not costly, expansive government mandates, to address our changing climate.”

    Today, U.S. District Court Judge Kathy Seeley found for the young Montana residents, agreeing that they have “experienced past and ongoing injuries resulting from the State’s failure to consider [greenhouse gas emissions] and climate change, including injuries to their physical and mental health, homes and property, recreational, spiritual, and aesthetic interests, tribal and cultural traditions, economic security, and happiness.” She found that their “injuries will grow increasingly severe and irreversible without science-based actions to address climate change.”  

    The plaintiffs sought an acknowledgement of the relationship of fossil fuels to climate change and a declaration that the state’s support for fossil fuel industries is unconstitutional. Such a declaration would create a foundation for other lawsuits in other states. 

    1. One important correction to that quotation:  Judge Kathy Seeley is not a "U.S. District Court Judge".  Instead, she is a "Helena District Judge" in a Montana court hearing a trial based on the Montana state constitution.  The ruling strikes down means "the 2023 version of the MEPA Limitation enacted by House Bill 971, as well the law created by Senate Bill 557 are unconstitutional and permanently enjoined."

      As expected, "The Montana Department of Justice said in a statement they disagreed strongly with the ruling and will appeal."

       

       

    2. Great to get some movement on this. I was a board member of iMartterYouth and the initial work came through the board’s project “Kids v. Global Warming”. We filed the federal suit in DC in May, 2011. I’ll never forget the scene that day (no pictures, they made us check our phones) but on one side was nothing but teenagers.  No one sitting on the defendants side except a dozen dudes wearing $1,000 suits sitting behind the government attorneys. 
       

      May this “long slog “ bear fruit.  

    2. Expertise leading a ground operation for RNC's Trump Victory in Arizona, huh.  Record Republican turnout, huh.

      Seems to me Arizona 2020 included a win for President Biden.  A win for Senator Mark Kelly. A status quo outcome for US Representatives [" Republicans held 4 seats and Democrats 5. No districts changed hands, and thus Democrats maintained control."]

      RNC regional director covering 7 states.   Arizona results: When Mark Kelly won a full term as Senator. Two US House seats did flip, giving Republicans 6 and Democrats 3.  Democrats won races for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. There was no change in the numbers in the state Senate and state House.

      As a campaign manager, there is little doubt he will be a step up from her first campaign manager, America's Mom. And perhaps from some others.

  5. *checks calendar for conflicts* 

    Aug. 24: Judge Cannon to hold a hearing in the classified docs case in Florida

    Aug. 25: Fani Willis gave Trump and others indicted in the Georgia case until noon to surrender

    Aug. 28: Judge Chutkan to hold a hearing in D.C. in the election interference case
     

    So this leaves time for a round of golf on the 26th, a MAGA Rally TBD *and* a day for performative drama at Bedminster on the 21st! 
     

    Next up: a fundraising appeal for jet fuel. 
     

     

    1. Might want to write that Aug 26th golf date in in pencil. Geaorgia law on bail says you don't get bail if you pose a risk of intimidating witnesses or obstructing justice – and it's up to Trump to show he's not a risk.

    2. The press conference ought to be interesting.  The "irrefutable REPORT" is likely to NOT include the initial counts, audits, and certified totals in various counties.  Nor the Safe Harbor timetable and the certification of the state's Electors.

      Nor will it refer to the SIX settled cases filed in November 2020. Or to the FIFTEEN cases filed in December 2020. It better not include any reference to the two election workers suing for defamation.

      And I'm betting Trump can't get through a press conference without blurting out a threat to those "Unindicted Co-conspirators" and others who have talked with the DA and the Grand Juries.

       

  6. The Ruble is still Rubble — it is currently trading at 101 rubles to the US Dollar (less than a penny).  Inflation in the Russian Federation is also kicking up a storm due to having to fund all the imports thru sales of their shrinking foreign currency reserves. 

    Analysts say the weakening of the ruble is being driven by increased defense spending — leading imports to rise — and falling exports, particularly in the oil and natural gas sector.

    The central bank also enacted a big increase of 1% to its key interest rate last month, saying inflation is expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk.

    After Western countries imposed sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble plunged as low as 130 to the dollar, but the central bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value.

    By last summer, it was in the 50-to-60 range to the dollar.

    Zabotkin on Friday dismissed speculation that capital flight from Russia also was to blame for the ruble’s fall, saying the idea was “not substantiated.”

    Yeah, right.  Russian oligarchs wouldn't dream of stashing their cash in foreign banks /s

      1. Ah, yes. Former Representative Steven King. And not to be confused with the author. 

        I remember when he was considered too extreme for the national GOP.

        Today, standing amongst Bimbobert, Empty "G", Paul Gossar, Andy Biggs, and Matt Gaetz, I doubt whether anyone would even notice King.

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